$20+$2 MTT hand near the bubble.

Big E · Apr 03,2006, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigChrisEl

(But that’s just me. As my friends say; using Phil Helmuth's animal types; I’m Ostrich, one sign of trouble and I run and bury my head.)

That is a good one!

I like your reasoning and I don't think the pre-flop raise was a bad play...I think I'd fold this pre-flop but it's certainly an ok hand to try and steal. On that flop with the pot sized bet I fold...that close to the money I don't like to push unless I have a strong hand or if I have my opponent out chipped and figure it to be a race....I know the goal is to win not make the money and I can appreciate that line of thinking but I don't want a coin flip unless losing that coin flip does not eliminate me....if I'm at risk of going out I want a bigger piece of that flop.

gokorda · Apr 03,2006, 05:56 PM

would have surely folded.. unless I"ve got the nuts I'm very cautious about an all in near the bubble

Dave Scharf · Apr 06,2006, 11:49 PM

As usual, without peeking...

Quote:

Some background information:
- $22 MTT on Party with 450+ entrants (I don't remember the exact number)
- Top 50 get paid but the pay structure was very top heavy ($2235 for first, a little over $100 for 10th, and 50th getting around $48).
- 56 players left with an average stack of 21-22k.
- The player to my left seems to be a solid player as he hasn't done anything out of line in the time I've been at his table, which has been for the majority of the tournament. He's been getting a big more aggressive with the bubble approaching.
- The player to his left is really passive. I'm sure he's trying to limp to the money.
- I have a pretty good image at my table (for those paying attention). I've been showing down strong hands and stealing once or twice every couple of orbits with very little resistance.

These are excellent introductory notes.

Quote:

***** Hand History for Game 3830769603 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:21426618 Level:9 Blinds-Antes(600/1200-50) - Monday, March 27, 03:37:50 ET 2006
Table Regular(643274) Table #2 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: Will_Son69 ( $18261 )

At about 15 times the BB I am in "ABC mode" -- I am not going to get fancy since it will be almost impossible not to get over committed.

Quote:

Seat 5: OlverCloseof ( $10318 )
Seat 4: guy4565 ( $28107 )
Seat 7: Blorguke ( $31639 )
Seat 9: russellmine ( $25625 )
Seat 8: orionpool3 ( $18028 )
Seat 10: zSlater88 ( $18201 )
Seat 1: Trymebizatch ( $25432 )
Seat 2: onlyTitleist ( $18046 )
Seat 6: conjenrick ( $18847 )
Trny:21426618 Level:9
Blinds-Antes(600/1200-50)
Trymebizatch posts ante [50].
onlyTitleist posts ante [50].
Will_Son69 posts ante [50].
guy4565 posts ante [50].
OlverCloseof posts ante [50].
conjenrick posts ante [50].
Blorguke posts ante [50].
orionpool3 posts ante [50].
russellmine posts ante [50].
zSlater88 posts ante [50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Will_Son69 [ Jc 8c ]
conjenrick folds.
Blorguke folds.
orionpool3 folds.
russellmine folds.
zSlater88 folds.
Trymebizatch folds.
onlyTitleist folds.
Will_Son69 raises [3600].
guy4565 calls [3000].
OlverCloseof folds.

I think your play here is perfectly legit.

Quote:

** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 4d, 8h ]
guy4565 bets [7844].

I muck.

He has called 3000 out of position. I think it is reasonable to assume that he has a hand of some kind. He has lots of chips so he has not shifted into desparation mode. This is not a short stack making a stop and go play, this is a "solid" player with a substantial stack who has called out of position.

What beats me? AA through to 88, 44, xT combos, and A-8, K-8, Q-8. Since he called 3000 out of position I think it's safe to discard some of these possibilities. I will give him AA to 22. He thinks you may have missed and he is betting out. You can beat 77 66 55 33 22 and you lose to AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 44. If he has a straight draw it will be about even money. On balance though, some of these are more likely than others JJ 99 look very likely to me (it would fit pre-flop with no re-raise).

On balance my feeling is, much. If I was a little shorter I might call, but I still have ammo.

Now to peak...

Dave Scharf · Apr 06,2006, 11:54 PM

Quote:

The reason I made the play I did was because my first instinct when the SB called was that he was going to bet any flop. He was a good player from what I could tell and, when he called preflop, I thought he'd use the bubble and my tight image to buy the pot on the flop (maybe that's just because it's something I do sometimes).

If this is right, then do not muck around with J-8. Against a substantial stack who will call and fire on any flop, do not enter the fray with a hand as weak as J-8 since you will almost certainly face tough decisions post-flop.

If you know what his cards were? Call his flop bet and then push on the turn if you are still ahead when your odds are better. Failingn that, get the chips in and cross your fingers.