Good results, but maybe a bad decision?

jontm · Mar 04,2010, 07:09 PM

So saturday night we had a 56 player $50+$10 bounty game. $3600 total prize pool. First was slated at $1120, 2nd $700 and third $420.
Money thinned and ended at spot 6.

It was a grind getting down to final and our blinds were getting steep at 4k/8k from a 10k starting stack, about 5.5 hrs in. Still a good structure for this buy-in. With a double elimination we started final at 9 players.

With even the average stack looking flakey, I proposed that we shave $120 of the top and pay out $20, $40, $60 to the 7-9th spots. With our bounties, we all would be sitting even at least. The table jumped on it.

Things went on and we ended up 3 handed with blinds at 16/32k. We took a quick break and sizing up everything, here was the situation. I had the middle of the 2 stacks, but maybe only a blind or 2 more than the short stack. The chip leader had about half the chips in play. He was a very good player and while my reads on him were good, I knew my stack could not with stand his aggresion long. Smallest stack worried me more as I could see he was drunk, loose and ready to go.

At best I had to win 2 flips to take first and survive at least one to take second. So I proposed we keep our bounties, chip leader takes $900 and we both take $600. We also wanted to finish it str8 up and collect the last $20 bucks and bragging rights.

We go and I pick up ace queen and raise. He shoves with AJ and I double through him. Shortly after I take the other 2 out and win.

So, considering all the info, how bad did I screw this up? Some say I should have considered myself to be a favorite against a random home game crowd and others agree with locking down a decent payday. I lose the flips I lose $280, I win the flips I cost myself $300 potential dollars. In the end I walk with second place money.

compuease · Mar 04,2010, 09:54 PM

On a strictly chip equity chop you may have been a little light. From your figures there was $2120. left in the prize pool. There were 560,000 chips in play. Now assume, based on your rough calculations that the leader has 280,000, you had 160,000 and third guy has 120,000. You did say that chip leader had half and you had one or 2BB more than third so this should be close. Now give each guy 3rd place money and chop the balance of the prize pool ($840.) by chip count. This would give 1st $840., you $660. and third $600. From this you can see that you gave up the most equity, ie $60. to the 1st place guy. Third broke even. The chop I outlined above assumes all are equal skill. If I thought I was way better than the others then I play on unless I get an advantageous chip chop. However usually by this time skill is out the window unless one guy just folds his way to third. It's whomever can get it in first and get lucky.

boogeyman · Mar 04,2010, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by compuease

On a strictly chip equity chop you may have been a little light. From your figures there was $2220. left in the prize pool. There were 560,000 chips in play. Now assume, based on your rough calculations that the leader has 280,000, you had 160,000 and third guy has 120,000. You did say that chip leader had half and you had one or 2BB more than third so this should be close. Now give each guy 3rd place money and chop the balance of the prize pool ($840.) by chip count. This would give 1st $840., you $660. and third $600. From this you can see that you gave up the most equity, ie $60. to the 1st place guy. Third broke even. The chop I outlined above assumes all are equal skill. If I thought I was way better than the others then I play on unless I get an advantageous chip chop. However usually by this time skill is out the window unless one guy just folds his way to third. It's whomeve can get it in first and get lucky.

Excellent post.

I would have worked it out myself if I wasnt so lazy.

as is, GG and way to ship it home.

BlondeFish · Mar 05,2010, 11:10 PM

I personally like playing it out and don't mind the variance of being the next one out, so the minimum I would have accepted would be my ICM equity of $688. The other two players got more than their fair ICM equity. I would have whipped out my iPod and used my ICM program to calculate the following equities:

1st - $804
2nd - $688
3rd - $628.

Anyway, congrats on the $620, bounties & bragging rights.

compuease · Mar 05,2010, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlondeFish

I personally like playing it out and don't mind the variance of being the next one out, so the minimum I would have accepted would be my ICM equity of $688. The other two players got more than their fair ICM equity. I would have whipped out my iPod and used my ICM program to calculate the following equities:

1st - $804
2nd - $688
3rd - $628.

Anyway, congrats on the $620, bounties & bragging rights.

lol, you forgot the $20. they left in the pot to play out for...

jontm · Mar 06,2010, 02:25 PM

I feel better about the deal now, I didn't screw myself as bad as I thought and this will help in future chops. Love the I-phone idea, we always have one of those handy. The 2nd place payday was satisfying and had it gone any other way I doubt I would have given it a second thought.

That said, if there is a way to squeeze a few more 20's next time, why wouldn't I insist? Thanks for the great answers all.