high variance vs. low variance in tourneys

peteski · Feb 03,2005, 05:12 PM

I know a lot of people seem to like low variance in tournament play, but from what I understand you and guys like Daniel Negreanu like to make some higher variance plays. I know you guys have a great deal of rhyme and reason for making these plays. I have a few questions that relate to this: What are the reasons for making some high-variance plays? When in tournaments is it proper to make these sorts of plays? What sort of circumstances do you look for? What are some specific high variance plays that you recommend?

I read in your book and other places to avoid drawing hands in limit tourneys. From this I reasoned that it was even more important to avoid drawing hands in no-limit tourneys, but after further investigation it appears that the opposite is true. Would you agree and why do you think this is? I think I know the answer to this question, but I'd like to hear it from you.

Cheers

Dave Scharf · Feb 05,2005, 10:20 PM

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I know a lot of people seem to like low variance in tournament play, but from what I understand you and guys like Daniel Negreanu like to make some higher variance plays. I know you guys have a great deal of rhyme and reason for making these plays.

Let me start by saying that I have been spending a lot of time lately trying to “solve Daniel Negreanu.” The only solution I have so far arrived at is: Do not play in tournaments in which Daniel is entered because he will eviscerate me and leave my boneless corpse on the poker table wondering why I am feeling so squishy.

But yes… I play a pretty high variance style so I will try and answer…

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I have a few questions that relate to this: What are the reasons for making some high-variance plays? When in tournaments is it proper to make these sorts of plays?

I prefer to “deploy the high variance package of plays” when I am a big stack or a small stack. Both big and small simply want to take what positive EV plays are presented to them. Small stacks because you can’t afford to wait for a better opportunity and big stacks because you can absorb the loss.

There are some who confuse the importance of positive EV in tournament play. If you could ALWAYS get your chips in with a positive EV situation you will do well – ring game or poker. The only reason to pass on a positive EV situation is that you might be better off waiting for an even MORE positive EV situation a little later. This is because the consequences of losing (elimination) are so sever.

I NEVER make a negative EV play. Well, I mean, I try not to (I frequently do, of course). Sometimes when the cards come over the folly of my play is revealed. But, until it was revealed I did not think it was folly. I THOUGHT it was positive EV (high variance or not).

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What sort of circumstances do you look for?

Hmmm… any positive EV play. If I have the “high variance play book” in action then I look to take EVERY SINGLE positive EV situation that presents itself.

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What are some specific high variance plays that you recommend?

The limp steal, the three-bet re-steal, the basic blind steal, the 12 out all-in semi-bluff.

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I read in your book and other places to avoid drawing hands in limit tourneys. From this I reasoned that it was even more important to avoid drawing hands in no-limit tourneys, but after further investigation it appears that the opposite is true. Would you agree and why do you think this is?

Depends what you mean be drawing hands.

In limit poker if you flop a draw you have, be definition, a high variance play that you are going to have difficulty getting away from because… well… it’s limit. The other guy can’t bet that much. So, unless you are in “high variance mode” then don’t enter pots with hands that will likely turn into draws (e.g. A-xs, 7-6s, K-6s).

In no-limit there are no drawing hands because your will NOT get a small enough price. There are implied odd hands… get in cheap and hit a big flop. The advantage to drawing hands in no-limit is that they set up post-flop semi-bluffs. Don’t use them to draw. Use them to steal the cookies. Bwahahahaha. Ahem… So, this means that you want to play drawing hands (pre-flop) against players that will pay you off (implied hands) or players that will fold (weak and predictable).

peteski · Feb 06,2005, 07:58 AM

Thanks a lot Dave. I have a couple of follow up questions. Firstly, could you explain the three-bet re-steal a little bit for me. I just want to make sure I know what you're referring to. Secondly, you say you never make a negative EV play. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but you might call a raise with something like 87s against only one opponent (provided you had some chips to spare) even if you felt confident that your opponent had a better hand at the time? On the surface this seems like a negative EV play. Is it a positive EV play because of implied odds or perhaps some post-flop skill overlay you feel you may have or something else?

Also, what would be a rough definition of a big stack or a small stack for you? Thanks again for all the help.

Dave Scharf · Feb 06,2005, 08:32 AM

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Firstly, could you explain the three-bet re-steal a little bit for me.

Against a player who has a wide range of hands with which he will make an initial raise, but a small range of hands with which he will continue past the flop if he misses the flop, then it can be a profitable play to three-bet this player pre-flop and then bet the flop if he checks. You want to have position and you want to make the three bet with the “least bad” range of hands: suited connectors (one or two gaps), pocket pair, and suited aces.

It’s VERY high variance, but pleasantly profitable when deployed properly.

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Secondly, you say you never make a negative EV play. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but you might call a raise with something like 87s against only one opponent (provided you had some chips to spare) even if you felt confident that your opponent had a better hand at the time?

I am calling because I BELIEVE that when one considers all of the circumstances, I am in a positive EV situation. The circumstances include the likelihood that I can steal the pot on a later street combined with the implied odds of hitting the hand and getting paid off. What I have done is to model a variety of player types and then sort through the EV of certain plays based upon my assumptions about what he will or will not do. So, if I have the player in the right box then I am making a positive EV play. If it is a negative EV play then it is because I have got the player in the wrong box.

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Also, what would be a rough definition of a big stack or a small stack for you? Thanks again for all the help.

Small stack = 6xBB or less. Large stack = 20xBB or more. Roughly.