Inevitable bust?

Black99 · Oct 13,2004, 12:39 AM

Hi Dave,

I busted out relatively early (round 4) in this past weekend's edmonton $500 freeze out event.

I had played 6 hands and had flopped 2 pair on 4 of them. Lost all of them and my stack had dwindled from 7500 to 3500.

Dealt JJ in early position. Blinds are 50-100. I raise to 325.

Folded around and both blinds call. The flop comes 8-9-3 rainbow. It is checked to me and I bet 500. Small blind folds and big blind (a good player, playing deceptively loose and aggressive early) calls. I put him on a hand like A-9 or K9 suited, or possibly a straight draw.

Turn brings the seemingly perfect card, a Jack.

BB checks. I bet 900 and he raises all-in. I have about 1600 left. Still some chance of making a comeback. All I could think about is that he has Q - 10!!!

But, I could not convince myself to lay down the top set which had a number of outs to beat even Q-10. I call.

Of course, Q-10. River is a blank and I go eat the buffet with no chips left!

I am interested in your (and other users) comments on this hand. All I keep thinking is that I should have pushed all in on the flop. No way I would have been called. But that is an easy analysis after knowing what he was holding.

Thanks

DJP · Oct 13,2004, 01:42 AM

It's tough to lay down a set. Believe me. lol After a few though, it gets a "tiny" bit easier. lol

A couple alternative plays seem obvious to me. Not necessarily correct mind you, just obvious. lol

Allin preflop. Might scare him off, might not. If he thinks you have aces or kings, maybe he folds. Maybe.

Allin post flop. You are each in for $325. Pot is now $975. Your bet of $500 is half pot. He decides to risk $500 fishing for his jack. Would he have gone fishing if you pushed allin there? Probably not. Inside straight draw for all your chips would fold most good players I think.

Generally with a higher pair like jj, qq, or kk, if the flop comes rainbow, without any straight potential, and is lower than my pair, then I bet huge. Of course the risk is he has a higher pair or two smaller ones. lol But it seems to pay well most of the time. The odd beat now and then, but I am sure it's made more than it's lost me in the long run. My .02

We'll see what some of the others, and Dave, have to say on the subject.

sweetjimmi · Oct 13,2004, 09:30 AM

I like the the preflop raise (mine woulda been my standard 4BB but not a big difference) and think the call was terrible but that is really beside the point. I am not crazy about the half the pot bet when they both check to you on the flop. You are giving drawing hands (such as J 10 suited to the board) a reason to call you. I bet the entire pot unless your sure that they have a made set but even then they will probably move-in on you and you can still get away from your hand.

On the turn your done like dinner. Pretty hard to put anyone on a made straight at this point (IMHO). I don't think many players can fold here (not to mention most of your stack is already committed to the pot).

I think the only way you don't bust on this hand is to be more aggressive on the flop. You might run into a trap once in awhile but you need to make drawing hands pay dearly to chase cards.

Jamie.

Dave Scharf · Oct 13,2004, 07:59 PM

I go bust on the hand.

I like your raise pre-flop. I like your bet on the flop. I would have bet a little more... about $800 in my case. When he checkraises you on the turn you are putting him on Q-T? I'm not. I'm putting him on a lower set and beating him into the pot with my chips.

I suspect that your impression of this player as "a good player, playing deceptively loose and aggressive early" is wrong. It is, I think, really hard to justify playing a hand like Q-T out of position preflop (OK he only has to pay $225 into a 750 pot, but it's still "Danger Will Robinson"). It is also hard to justify his call on the flop since what is he hoping to hit? A jack is the only think that can make him happy but he is paying $500 into a $1500 pot. He could hit a queen or a ten and still be behind. Not the kind of draw I want to make in no-limit. Out of position with four good outs and six more "iffy" outs.