Brags, Beats & VarianceWin a big hand or tournament, suck someone out, brag about it in here. Get sucked out and want to kill yourself... well don't do that! Post it here... talking it out is the best therapy!
Kind of a strange chip situation that I thought I could exploit while it lasted in terms of stealing some from 2nd place guy (until knocking out the shall we say small chipped 3rd place guy). End result was a bit unexpected, and I think the fellow who finished 2nd was satisfied by the turn of events
PokerStars Game #17264933567: Tournament #87497223, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit -
Level VII (100/200) - 2008/05/07 - 13:32:21 (ET)
Table '87497223 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: ayko2003 (3011 in chips)
Seat 3: Catimecoder (9 in chips)
Seat 8: Monteroy (10480 in chips)
ayko2003: posts the ante 25
Catimecoder: posts the ante 9 and is all-in
Monteroy: posts the ante 25
Monteroy: posts small blind 100
ayko2003: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [Js 2s]
Monteroy: raises 10255 to 10455 and is all-in
ayko2003: calls 2786 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (7469) returned to Monteroy
*** FLOP *** [Ts Ks 2h]
*** TURN *** [Ts Ks 2h] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [Ts Ks 2h Tc] [8c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [Js 2s] (two pair, Tens and Deuces)
ayko2003: shows [Qh Ah] (a pair of Tens)
Monteroy collected 6004 from side pot
Catimecoder: shows [Th 3c] (three of a kind, Tens)
Catimecoder collected 27 from main pot
I managed to win the heads up with a 13,473 to 27 chip advantage!
Reality was that guy was just bad who used his check/fold call any preset buttons ( I eventually just min raised him whenever it was blind on blind and got about 7 of 9 blinds that way), but lets pretend a solid player was in that second place spot.
You know the guy with 10k will shove literally any 2, and he will keep doing this as long as guy with 9 chips is alive. What hands do you actually call?
Though he did not put any contextual thought into the situation, I do not think his call was that horrible in concept as the only way he really loses out is the unlikely scenario where the small chipper finishes 1st and I finish 2nd in the hand, and odds are he is a 2-1ish favorite over me.
I probably fold the AQ, but I can see how it would get annoying if the small chipper won a couple in a row as well.
since the short stack is already all-in, he hit the worst of all scenarios. normally, he would hope shortie busts, too, and he ends up with 2nd even if he busts out.
there is some math behind this... hmmm, involving icm and the increase in payouts from 3rd to 2nd and your range vs his hand... and the fact that he is going to need some chips if he hopes to have a reasonable chance to beat you HU...
i know on the bubble this is a clear fold but here i'm leaning towards a call.
blondefish, where are you?
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since the short stack is already all-in, he hit the worst of all scenarios. normally, he would hope shortie busts, too, and he ends up with 2nd even if he busts out.
there is some math behind this... hmmm, involving icm and the increase in payouts from 3rd to 2nd and your range vs his hand... and the fact that he is going to need some chips if he hopes to have a reasonable chance to beat you HU...
i know on the bubble this is a clear fold but here i'm leaning towards a call.
blondefish, where are you?
Didn't you just say the exact opposite in the JJ bubble thread?
edit: oh, it's 9max maybe the jumps make it different (thought it was 6max)
__________________
That level 5 trap really paid off...ship him the cookies.
Didn't you just say the exact opposite in the JJ bubble thread?
lol - did i?
i was thinking 9-handed sngs for both.
on bubble, AQ would be a fold for sure IF YOUR OPPONENT PUSHED in front of you. in the other post, he raised in front but it wasn't clear if that was a pot-committing raise. my point was you may have some fold equity there, depending on his range. and QQ should push regardless.
plus as my backup, JJ>AQ anyway...
__________________
I can't tell you how awesome it feels to win a WSOP bracelet!
on bubble, AQ would be a fold for sure IF YOUR OPPONENT PUSHED in front of you. in the other post, he raised in front but it wasn't clear if that was a pot-committing raise. my point was you may have some fold equity there, depending on his range. and QQ should push regardless.
plus as my backup, JJ>AQ anyway...
oh, was someone else, sry -- all u KW guys look the same to me
__________________
That level 5 trap really paid off...ship him the cookies.
there is some math behind this...
blondefish, where are you?
Math shmath. Math doesn't matter since poker is all luck anyway.
Assuming that the prize structure is $45/$27/$18 and without doing any ICM calculations, my intuition/feel was the same as pkrfce9; I thought that the BB made the correct call with A-Q soooted since there is only $9 difference between 2nd and 3rd place. By the way, a lower raise by the SB would have been better than risking almost 3,000 chips on an all-in with only 359 chips in the pot.
P.S. Using ICM analysis, BB needed an equity of 74% to make calling correct. TBC....
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May your EV always be positive.
Last edited by BlondeFish; May 07,2008 at 07:30 PM.
Reason: Now I know why I use math instead of just playing by feel!
Actually my play was even worse then you imply since the guy with AQ always used pre-action buttons and any size raise worked the same in terms of how he behaved, hence the min raise (as I had been doing ) was technically the correct play.
I got a bit caught up in the utter silliness of the stack sizes and lost sight of that, but I am going to cling to some results based thinking and say based on that it was the correct play
Also my cards were suited...
I would be interested in seeing a mathematical breakdown of the hand range to call if possible for this scenario (assuming normal level of play skill). Payouts are indeed 45 27 and 18
Even if BB knows that you have been going all-in with any two cards, AQs has an equity of only 66% against a random hand and should be folded. BB should only call an all-in with at least TT (75% equity) in this situation, and fold AKs (67%) and all other hands. If he thinks that your all-in range is the top 50% of hands, then he should only call with QQ-AA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlondeFish
Using ICM analysis, BB needed an equity of 74% to make calling correct. TBC....
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May your EV always be positive.
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