WSOP Hand for discussion

Dave Scharf · Aug 29,2004, 01:31 AM

Here is an actual hand from this year’s WSOP that has taken a LONG time to think through. I think it is the interesting sort of a thing that the very best players will do, that I am not yet capable of seeing quickly. It takes me a long time to sort these things out.

Here is the hand…

There are 240 players left in the $10K WSOP Championship and 225 get paid. You have $40K in chips. The average stack is just over $100K. The blinds are $1,000-2,000 and there is a $200 ante.

You have been at your new table for three laps of the button. On the first two laps of the button you have stolen a VERY AGGRESSIVE player’s big blind when folded to you on the button. You know this player from TV and by reputation, but he does not know anything about you. After you steal his blind for a second time you notice that he studies you long and hard. He has a lot of chips. You conclude that he is going to play back at you if you try and steal his big blind again. You resolve to lift your thumb off on the next lap. Then, on the very next lap it is folded to you on the button. You check your cards and discover A-K.

What do you do?

all_aces · Aug 29,2004, 02:39 AM

LOL... this same thing happens to me in online tournaments. Steal, steal, better slow down with this guy for a bit because he's probably gonna play back at me next time, uh-oh I actually have a hand.

Hmmm... say "this time I actually mean it", and then make it 12K? Personally, I don't think folding is an option, even though you're risking your tournament if you play. If he has a mountain of chips, 12K might not be enough to lose him, so you might have to just go ahead and move in. Basically, I think you should raise more than you did the last two times, because you don't want to be called by him (at least, I wouldn't... by just about anyone else, maybe, but not by him). How do you communicate to someone that you actually mean business after you've been stealing from them?

I guess my answer is, raise really big or move in, depending on his stack and the size of your previous two raises. And say something like "this time I mean it" if that's allowed, and is acceptable behaviour, etiquette-wise. I wouldn't want a call from this particular guy with those chips at that particular stage of that particular tournament, but I wouldn't be able to bring myself to fold or limp preflop, either.

Regards,
all_aces

all_aces · Aug 29,2004, 02:55 AM

Just noticed that you posted this hand on RGP as well, which is a good idea because some of those players have a lot of experience. Then again, some don't lol, but I'm sure you know which are which.

For those who aren't familiar with RGP, some of the opinions given there are a little sketchy. But, my opinion here may in fact have been even more sketchy, because ALL of the responses given at RGP so far indicate that you should want to be called.

Personally, I don't think I would. I know that AK is a powerful starting hand, but if you raise, and he plays back at you on a move (which he likey would), and you move in, by that point the pot will very likely dictate a call to be correct on his part with any two cards. AK isn't that big a favourite against Q4... not big enough to risk your whole tournament on, that late in the game...

Yes, this is damage control, and second-guessing.

mac · Aug 29,2004, 02:56 AM

AT 5000 chips a lap and needing to double through in a hurry, I can't think of too many more hands and circumstances ideally suited . My gut reaction is to put in the raise that you had the last 2 steals and pray you get action.

all_aces · Aug 29,2004, 03:10 AM

Hmmm, if Dave puts in the same raise (say, 8 or 10K?), he'll get re-raised (let's say) to around 20K by this particular player. Dave moves in for 20K or so more, which makes this a correct call for the BB with any two cards. Like I said, how big of a favourite is AK over Q4? Around 68/32. It's his whole tournament, late in the game... I'd still consider raising bigger or moving in altogether to as to not get called, and then steal steal steal from other players for a while. 225 get paid, 240 left, should be tightening up at the table, and relatively easy to steal from others and build a stack in a way that doesn't risk your whole tournament. Under different circumstances, my feelings would be different. Nonetheless, I have a feeling I'll be alone on this...

Dave Scharf · Aug 29,2004, 09:51 AM

This was not a hand that I played. It was played by my friend and fellow poker "thinker" Ralph. Not that it makes any difference.

Chugs · Aug 29,2004, 10:38 AM

Here is one approach that may work well

I limp in for the minimum here. You mentioned that the player had been studying your (or your friends) play. He will have noticed that unlike the previous orbits you didn't push hard, and may even interprete this as a classic (weakness means strength situation) ... the limp may give him pause.

In this situation the SB may end up coming along for the ride, which is a risk.

possibility 1. The BB may check and decide to check in this situation, not wanting to step into a possible trap by you. this is based on the assumption that he truely believed you were stealing before and believes your limp-in is a sign of weakness. You hit an ace or king push in, or even try to steal it after the flop representing a large pp that you slow played.

possibility 2. The BB now may push back hard and if he does. You'll have to decide how much the 10,000 means to you in this situation, vs. having a higher probability of getting back to an average chip stack.

You do have one small benefit though if you end up folding here. The players at the table may incorrectly read you as a weak player who limped in with any two cards on the button. This may be useful later if you have great cards and want to generate action, since your limp-in will likely again result in a big push back by the agressive player in the blind. Plus for the minimum bet you had a decent chance of seeing the flop.

DJP · Aug 29,2004, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chugs

I limp in for the minimum here. You mentioned that the player had been studying your (or your friends) play. He will have noticed that unlike the previous orbits you didn't push hard, and may even interprete this as a classic (weakness means strength situation) ... the limp may give him pause.

I like this answer. For many reasons. But, is he just gonna check your limp in, after you stole his previous two BB's?

Also, Macs point about blinds/antes eating you up is valid too. You are less than half the average chip count, which puts the leaders far out in front of you. And time is running out. 5K a lap gives you only 8 laps on your 40K. And that's IF the blinds don't go up in 8 laps. So you have to get busy. Soon! No choice.

I guess the questions you have to ask yourself at this particular point in the tourney are....

1. "Will 15 other people get knocked out before your 40K is gone, so you can make the money, and will it happen in less than 8 laps?"

2. "Am I just trying to finish in the money, or do I want a shot at the final table?"

Given all these circumstances, I'd push it all in preflop and make him decide. Which tells you where I stand on the second one. lol And if he folds I'd lay it down too, to show you weren't bluffing with garbage. Then he can study that too. lol

ScottyZ · Aug 29,2004, 12:17 PM

I would put in a raise exactly the same size as my previous two steals. (Maybe they were around 10K? Has one or more of the previous steals been all-in?) I would have the intention of moving all-in if re-raised by the BB. The nice thing here is that you're representing a steal with a far superior hand than a typical stealer has. The BB being an aggressive player, might decide to play back at you with hands like AQ or AJ, or (more importantly) maybe even with a random holding either (most likely) because he/she thinks he/she will be able to successfully re-steal, or possibly in an attempt to simply send a "quit stealing my blind" message.

I am loving it (damn marketing getting into my brain...) if my opponent has (even non-dominated) trash like Q4.

Even though all_aces points out (correctly so) that a call of 20K more with Q4 after the re-raise is not a FTOP mistake in terms of EV, re-raising to ~20K with that particular hand is a pretty big FTOP mistake. (That is, if the re-raise comes with the intention of calling an all-in bet... it is not obvious to me that this would in fact be the intention. Not calling would merely delay the FTOP mistake by one betting action.)

Your opponent would only making a good play by calling because the (FTOP) correct calling situation was set up by a bad FTOP error.

I think limping-in here or raising smaller than standard isn't a good play. You're asking for serious trouble by trying to get this cute with AKo here. If you feel a strong need to vary your bet size here (I don't see why you would), pushing all-in seems better than going small to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJEP

And if he folds I'd lay it down too, to show you weren't bluffing with garbage.

[You mean show the hand, right? I've typically heard "lay it down" as another way of saying "folding".]

I would *not* do this particularly because of what you said next:

Quote:

Then he can study that too.

I'm dying to know how it turned out. Rot13! Rot13!

ScottyZ

stpboy · Aug 29,2004, 12:31 PM

Getting the feeling that this player will likely want to push the bet, I'd beat him to it and push all in. As we have said at other times, AK is highly over-rated and you don't likely want him to call in this situation where you assume he will want to. I personally feel that there are three ways to play this a) safely and push all in preflop or b) medium safe...call the bb and see what your opponent does/see the flop c) bet 8K/10K and push all in when he re-raises you, I feel this is the most dangerous play you can make but would have the most risk/reward. I guess it all depends on what type of player image you want to have for the remaining "money players" and what your original objective was, just make the money or win the damn thing. Hmmm, I think I'm having a hard time with this one. Questioning my original decision. I suppose when it comes down to it I have to go with " A small win is better then a big loss", raise preflop all in and hope he makes the right call... FOLD!

stp

Chugs · Aug 29,2004, 01:29 PM

I offered the limp-in option really as a move that is designed around a desire not to push all-in.

NOTE: As long as you are comfortable going out short of the money in this sitaution, then i think without question the right move is to simply push ALL-IN.

If you get no callers the money in the pot is good enough and if he calls you got your money in and made him call a premium hand that should double you up

Dave Scharf · Aug 29,2004, 04:00 PM

Here are my thoughts, such as they are.

(1) A-K is MUCH too good in this spot to fold. That would be grotesque. It might actually be your best way of “making the money” but you are essentially giving up on winning or placing high in the money and with $40K still in front of you that would be a terrible shame.

(2) Moving all-in. Also not the best play. You have taken a hugely profitable situation and reduced it to being marginally so. You are risking $40K to win $4800. Sure, you minimize the chance that he will call and you will go broke, but you are – once again – giving up on building some chips and getting back into the raise.

(3) Make a standard raise and then re-raise all in or call when he plays back at you. This is a perfectly acceptable play. You will get your chips all-in with A-K against a random hand if your instincts are correct. In actual fact, this is the play that was made. Ralph made it $6K. World Class Por (WCP) re-raises to $20K and Ralph moved in. WCP called and showed K-T. Flopped a ten and beat the A-K. A dream come true, with a bad result.

(4) Limping in. This is, I think, the best play. Moving in is too big a risk for too small a reward. Limping in may offer a big reward for a small risk. It is possible that WCP will sense a trap and simply check pre-flop. In which case you are in position to see the flop and make a decision having only risked $2K of your stack. There is also a VERY GOOD chance that WCP will put you on an “implied odds” hand like 6-6 and decide he will take you off it pre-flop. After all, you are probably just some stupid internet player. When he re-raises pre-flop YOU move-in. With that sequence of betting your hand screams “big hand” and he will fold A LOT of hands.

The power of A-K is in the semi-bluff. Yes, it is a strong hand but you almost ALWAYS prefer to take the pot pre-flop with A-K. The question becomes “Can I manipulate the betting in this hand to add some fold equity?” Putting in a standard raise adds ZERO fold equity because you KNOW that WCP will play back and get pot committed because of your small stack.

arkose · Aug 29,2004, 05:40 PM

i like Dave's reasoning for #4 limping in...but i still have to side with his #3 which is what i was thinking when i first started reading this thread...

true, you have no fold equity with the #4 option...but i really don't think you want fold equity here...

you are shortstacked by a decent margin, you are given a good hand (AK isn't *that* overrated), and you are on the tournament bubble...you need chips now to make a play for a higher finish, and not a 225th finish (isn't that what you're supposed to shoot for?).....and on top of all this, the circumstances are such that you *know* an aggressive player in the blinds, with lots of chips, will most likely make a play back at you if you make your standard raise....forget the fact that he's a pro, i think this is the ideal situation when you are hoping for a double-up with a good hand...

you know the pro will make a reraise with almost any hand in this situation...so, his hand will, on average, be worse than yours...and if indeed he does choose the reraise route, and he's likely to still throw away complete crap, then there is a good chance he holds an ace or a king, and is completely dominated (the ideal situation, and exactly what happened)....i think you play it exactly the way it went down....make your standard raise, let him reraise, then push in.......obviously, you'd prefer an even better hand to double up with, but given the situation in the tournament, you have to use this opportunity

granted, i've only played online tournaments, mostly smaller stakes, but this is what i think, for what its worth

ps. the other problem i have with limping in is that the small blind will likely see the flop as well...and why take the chance that he hits something....i don't know what his chip situation was, but maybe u end up pushing in on the flop, and getting called by the person you weren't thinking about

ScottyZ · Aug 29,2004, 06:16 PM

I think I've got to agree with arkose on this one (and Ralph too I suppose, unless he since regrets this play). My initial reaction to Dave's latest post was captured almost exactly by akrose:

Quote:

Originally Posted by arkose

true, you have no fold equity with the #4 option...but i really don't think you want fold equity here...

You're getting a 60-40 edge against a lot of random hands, a coin toss (I can imagine Dave cringing) against pairs QQ and below, and you're a monster of a favorite against any Ace or King. Furthermore (ignoring the dreaded AA and KK), small pairs and suited connectors will actually give you the worst time of it, while you're golden against (unpaired) Aces or Kings. A WCP might be more comfortable making his/her stand with the latter types of hands, since he/she is probably assuming that Ralph is himself on a random holding.

I'm not convinced that it's bad for me to get my chips in right now in lieu of waiting for a bigger edge down the tournament road.

The various options are really all about risk aversion of course, but I find it hard to imagine being so risk averse that you're going to pass on the "Get the money all-in free" card you've just pulled off of the Chance pile here. Manufacturing a better edge later on in the tournament than getting 40K all-in pre-flop with AKo versus a (at least somewhat) random hand is going to be difficult.

Of course, sneaking into 225th may also be a real consideration. However, it seems to me that with 1K-2K, a200 blinds and 100K average stack, a 40K stack size is teetering on the iffy zone of being able to fold into the money. IMO, it's neither a dangerously short stack, nor a smooth sailing stack if making 225th place is a goal here.

There's plenty of food for thought here. Great thread!

And Dave, c'mon and let us off the hook for crying out loud. Who was the WCP?

ScottyZ

Dave Scharf · Aug 29,2004, 06:43 PM

Let me give you an extreme example. You get one of two choices, which do you prefer:

(1) Move all in with your A-K and get called by a random hand; or
(2) Limp in, get raised by a random hand, and then re-raise all-in with your A-K.

This is the situation as it was perceived. There was, of course, no guarantee that the WCP would have raised the limp in. If he does not then you are correct, you find yourself in the tricky situation of having to play A-K post-flop. I do, however much prefer option (2) to option (1).

The WCP was Mike Matusow.