Quote:
Originally Posted by Kristy_Sea  Also you called to hit a set against dummies: you did. Quit over-thinking, if you aren't going to blindly shove there (flop) you're back to needing 20x stacks and should have folded preflop. |
did i mention i played this poorly? ya i should've folded, a couple times here...
on the river, i considered my options.
if i bet, he is raising with: 7c6c, any 8, possibly any 4, very unlikely to get a bluff raise from him calling with: any 4, any PP>44, A high (knowing him), likely 76 and prob folding everything else. if he raises, i'm beat a good 75% of the time and should likely fold.
if i check, he's betting: any 8, any 4, maybe any 2 clubs, 76, any PP>55 and a lot of other hands since i have shown weakness here. i beat all but 3 hands (any 8 being one hand lol).
i figured the odds were better to check, let him bet and i could put in a bit of a value raise which he is only calling with an 8 or a 4. but no, i check, he shows 7c2c for just about the weakest flush he could have here. nh buddy.
i made a bunch of mistakes with this hand.
pre-flop i think the call was marginal. without a big flop, i'm tossing my hand away OOP against the lags even though it could well be the best hand.
on the flop, i was focussed on making money back from the crazy asians. when the donk bet it, i assumed he made a rational play. why lead into the asians when you know they will bet their garbage? i figured he expected a raise to be coming his way. i put him on a big hand looking to mix it up with the lags. i missed the clue that his weak bet was a blocking bet, so he could try to draw out with his crap flush.
he was about 33% to win on the flop. knowing the cards, i expect he would have called any reasonable raise here and he had position on me. i strongly doubt he calling a shove here. likely something around 100 more (which may have been enough to commit him to the hand.)
the turn would have been a good spot to get a lot of chips in but i totally misread his hand. since he lead the flop, i expected him to bet again where i could put in a decent raise. when he checked, i missed my chance to get much value out of the hand.
on the river, i don't think i can get value here. i asked him later if he would have called anything in the neighbourhood of 100 on the river and he said 'definitely not'. ah well.
