BlondeFish

While there were a couple of forumers nearing final table in a tournament, there were at least five other forumers in a fun-filled $1/2 cash game table when the following hand came up. (If somebody remembers the hand better than I do, let me know and I will post corrections.)

Hero open-raises to $11 with A-Ko

Next player re-raises all in for around $78. Everybody else folds. Hero has villain covered. Villain seems to be a tight player, who has previously raised all-in pre-flop with JJ.

What would you do?

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May your EV always be positive.

philliivey

FOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!

if he seems to be a tight player you are losing, plus ace king sucks a@#.

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Always did the right thing and it feels good.

cadillac

I would likely need a bit of a read and I guess the fact that he seems to know what he is doing and he had previously shoved JJ would be a enough.


AA or KK would likely re-raise it to about $35 and get the rest in on the flop. More vulnerable hands would shove. I would put his range at AQ+, 99+ with AA and KK discounted.


This essentially puts you in a flip situation and the blinds + your $12 raise puts enough dead money in the pot to get it in here.

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Stupid is as Stupid does - Forrest Gump

actyper

^+1

westside8

Pretty sure this is a call here.

bleemo

hmm sounds like he had AA, KK or the same hand as you!

pokerJAH

Blondefish posting a bad beat post, never. Blondefish admitting to losing a hand, never.

For a coin flip, likely, its really up to you whether you want to risk it. By memory, I think you love AK so I would say you called. If I'm up on the night, I may call. If this guy seemed to be draining chips and was just looking to get his chips in with any decent hand, I might call. I have seen lots of players fold AK before in this situation.

What happened?

BlondeFish

Hero folds. Villain shows JJ again.

Another forumer thought that a call against JJ would have been -EV and asked what I would have done. I answered that calling was +EV and I would have called. With $92 in the pot and $67 to call, you are getting 1.4-to-1 pot odds, and if you think your probability of winning is over 42% ($67/$159), then calling is the correct EV-maximizing decision. As long as I have access to enough cash to rebuy, I would gladly take +EV coin-flips every single hand in a cash game!

Against JJ, your EV = -$67 * 0.568 + $92 * .432 = +$1.69.
If you make 1000 such correct calls in your lifetime instead of folding, then you will make an extra $1,690 in profit.

I would only fold AK if my read on the opponent is that there is a high probability that he has AA or KK. For example, if I think that villain would only re-raise all-in with the top 4% of hands (AA-99, AK), then my equity is 41% in this situation and calling would be -EV.

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May your EV always be positive.

pkrfce9

el oh frickin el!

as i recall from the time, i'm pretty sure i said it was something like 42/57 while everyone else said it was almost 50/50. and that the EV of the call was at most 5 bucks plus or minus when you factor in the dead money. (i guess i came pretty close for late at night with no computer close at hand).

i also said i didn't think it was worth it to risk 60+ to make at best 5. i don't mind taking +EV opportunities but i'm not so keen on the huge variance plays when it represents a big chunk of my stack. especially if i'm already down a chunk.

for the record, it wasn't me making the hero fold. and the hero also had to factor in the chance SHE could be up against AA or KK here as it was easy to read the opponent was playing a big hand (and would not necessarily make a smallish raise given the short stack situation). i'm indifferent to calling or folding here. long term it is SLIGHTLY profitable. caling is moderately ok but i'm not opposed to a fold here either.

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bleemo

Tough fold for sure, but a decent one.

He had a made hand, you did not.

Although you may have hit one or the other he also may have hit a jake.

Congrats for not marrying your hand!

cheers..

BlondeFish

It is highly lucrative to risk $60 to have a positive expectation of ~$5. If I play enough poker to take advantage of such +EV "coin-flips", I will be a millionaire!

It is important to bring enough cash for the limits you're playing such that you won't worry so much about variance. If there are in the table that call raises with garbage and sucks out, you want to have enough cash to keep topping up to the maximum because you know the bad player will eventually donk off all his money.

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May your EV always be positive.

bleemo

Damn I wish my last opp was reading this, they just busted me out of tourney my JJ his AK


hits a K on the river!

blehhh

MickeyHoldem

As noted... this is a very close call based on the discussed range... if you clearly feel it's +EV then call... however I hate calling in these close situations... If I'm going to get it all-in with AK... I want to be the one pushing. Not that I'm going to pass up a clear +EV situation, but I want a good read on my opponent.

AK is a much stronger hand when you're pushing!!

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-- Michael
Luck is just probability taken personally!

pkrfce9

well, it wasn't 5 bucks now was it. i guess you figured it to be less than 2.

i think i have an issue with your definition of 'highly'.

like i said, i don't think it is a 'terrible' call. i don't think it is a 'great' one either. i'd say the same about the fold. it's really one of those decisions you aren't much wrong either way.

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pokerJAH

Pkrfce9 down in a cash game, that's unheard of. I may have to head back up to GT so you can have one more fish at the table.