Betting to give yourself suck-out odds...

DrTyore · Oct 07,2006, 10:44 AM

Okay... so here's a hand that I think I played "okay", even though it may be a little LAG.....

Table is fairly tight / passive...

***** Hand History for Game 5324848121 *****
$50 NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, October 06, 15:45:50 ET 2006
Table Table 95653 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 4: janh84 ( $100.20 )
Seat 7: fcsm01 ( $52.21 )
Seat 8: ZA_Butcher ( $28.03 )
Seat 9: DrTyore ( $69.85 )
Seat 5: BigPotThief ( $52.30 )
Seat 3: wuzel123 ( $33.28 )
Seat 10: Highmarker ( $49.25 )
Seat 6: Lhurgoyf63 ( $9.75 )
Seat 1: sibhuskey ( $49.25 )
Seat 2: daviddakid ( $25 )
janh84 posts small blind [$0.25].
BigPotThief posts big blind [$0.50].
daviddakid posts big blind [$0.50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DrTyore [ Jh Qc ]
Lhurgoyf63 folds.
fcsm01 folds.
ZA_Butcher folds.

DrTyore raises [$2]. --> As I said, tight / passive, so I try to steal, not the greatest position, but meh.

Highmarker folds.
sibhuskey folds.

daviddakid calls [$1.50]. --> No read, new to table

wuzel123 folds.
janh84 folds.
BigPotThief folds.

** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, 3d, Th ] Hey! OESD! No flushes, maybe I can represent AK

DrTyore bets [$3].

daviddakid raises [$6]. Hmm... Min raise, I think he's either got AK or he's got a set... the min-raise screams set.

DrTyore calls [$3]. --> OESD, $3 into a pot $13.75... I thought I was getting the odds, but PokerTracker has since told me "No, bad Mark"

** Dealing Turn ** [ Qd ] --> Well, now if he has AK, then another Q is an out, but let's worst case scenario this and go with a set... probably 3s or 10s since he would have re-popped with KK...

Here's where my question is.... he has $17 left... and the pot's $17... he's likely going all the way here... so, with 8 outs, I need the pot to be giving me about 5:1 odds....

DrTyore bets [$9]. --> Pot goes to $26, and his all in will make an $8 call into a pot of $43 - giving me the correct odds to call.

daviddakid is all-In.
DrTyore calls [$8].

So, by my reasoning, this is what I wanted to happen...

** Dealing River ** [ 5d ]
DrTyore shows [ Jh, Qc ] a pair of queens.
daviddakid shows [ Ts, Td ] three of a kind, tens.
daviddakid wins $48.25 from the main pot with three of a kind, tens.

Okay, so I was loose in my starting hands, but I was the aggressor throughout, and I made the correct call after I bet enough to make the all-in call correct....

Now, traditional wisdom tells us that it's better to be the aggressor, giving your opponent every opportunity to fold.... However, the more I think about this hand, I should have known that he wasn't going anywhere if I put him on a set.. so is this a bad play? "Bet for a reason" is good advice IMO - so is my bet to give myself odds a good enough reason, or is that donkey-talk?

Mark

g2 · Oct 07,2006, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrTyore

or is that donkey-talk?

Hee haw

The only way you should have seen the river is if you had checked the turn and he had checked behind (or min-bet and gave you odds). Good read on putting him on a set... so why didn't you use the read?

/g2

DrTyore · Oct 08,2006, 10:37 AM

Strictly based on percentages for the flop to turn, I"m about $1 short to make the odds "correct".. PT is smarter than me

Mark

ScoobyD · Oct 08,2006, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrTyore

"Bet for a reason" is good advice IMO - so is my bet to give myself odds a good enough reason, or is that donkey-talk?

Mark

By your reasoning, you should make enormous preflop raises with horrid hands, so that if your opponent repops you you have odds to call. Except you aren't really getting 5:1, you're getting like 2:1 since you're putting in 17 to call his 17 plus pot of 17. Now if you were using someone else's money to make the initial donkey bet...then it might make sense...but I'm sure you've already figured this out by now... At least tell us you were drunk or something...

DrTyore · Oct 08,2006, 10:10 PM

Sadly enough, I was not drunk or otherwise impaired...

Just kinda not my day, and I'm sure I was just trying to convince myself it was a good idea... Well, we all make mistakes, though I do think that if I put him on something other than a set, say, top pair only, and he's a player that I think will make a laydown like that, THEN it may be a good play

Mark

magithighs · Oct 10,2006, 08:00 AM

This is bleeding. Not the PF raise (well kinda), but most of the action after that.

Cheers
Magi

pkrfce9 · Oct 10,2006, 09:20 AM

Here's another way to look at it. If you knew your opponent had AA, would you put in 90% of your stack pre-flop to give yourself odds to call his push?

beanie42 · Oct 10,2006, 01:40 PM

Mark - did you fall on your head while I was away? Ugly hand in so many different ways. I think Lou's "bleeding" might be generous - this seems more like suicide. Nice read for the set though

DrTyore · Oct 10,2006, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beanie42

Mark - did you fall on your head while I was away? Ugly hand in so many different ways. I think Lou's "bleeding" might be generous - this seems more like suicide. Nice read for the set though

Actually.. I've been waiting for you to get back, I have a LOT of hands to go over / analyze

Mark

specialK · Oct 10,2006, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrTyore

so is my bet to give myself odds a good enough reason, or is that donkey-talk?
Mark

your bet to give yourself odds, is a bet to give yourself odds on money that your own money... i think that lou calling it "bleeding" is very generous... i might call this severing your phermoral artery and you have 3 minutes to live. lol, other than that though i think you made a great read and you should just trust that.

BBC Z · Oct 12,2006, 08:04 PM

Quote:

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DrTyore [ Jh Qc ]
Lhurgoyf63 folds.
fcsm01 folds.
ZA_Butcher folds.

DrTyore raises [$2]. --> As I said, tight / passive, so I try to steal

I'm confused. This isn't a tournament, why are you trying to steal the blinds in a cash game?

AcidJoe · Oct 13,2006, 04:23 AM

At a tight passive table I don't mind the raise. I don't even mind the initial flop bet, however the re raise after the flop screamed set. At a no limit table if you really wanted to go to the river you may as well go all in. This (maybe) gives your opponent a chance to fold. The way you played it, you could have just mailed me a cheque and be done with it

.

BTW welcome back BBC I thought you gave up this game

BBC Z · Oct 13,2006, 04:01 PM

Quote:

BTW welcome back BBC I thought you gave up this game

I'm not the student of the game that I once was and tend to make stupid mistakes when playing casino ring games but I dont think I'll ever 100% give it up..

Anyway, you only need simple logic skills to figure out that betting $2 to steal .75 probably isn't winning longterm.

DrTyore · Oct 13,2006, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBC Z

I'm not the student of the game that I once was and tend to make stupid mistakes when playing casino ring games but I dont think I'll ever 100% give it up..

Anyway, you only need simple logic skills to figure out that betting $2 to steal .75 probably isn't winning longterm.

True...

But I also had decent position, and ended up with a hand that never that far behind.

Pre-flop play regardless, I'm curious to get your opinion on the rest of the hand?

Mark

DrTyore · Oct 13,2006, 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBC Z

I'm not the student of the game that I once was and tend to make stupid mistakes when playing casino ring games but I dont think I'll ever 100% give it up..

Anyway, you only need simple logic skills to figure out that betting $2 to steal .75 probably isn't winning longterm.

True...

But I also had decent position, and ended up with a hand that never that far behind.

Pre-flop play regardless, I'm curious to get your opinion on the rest of the hand?

Mark