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Old Dec 15,2010, 09:05 AM   #1
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Facing Flop Overbet vs Fish

Villian is typical fish, one that we are going out of our way to play pots against. He was playing 61/7/46 over 41 hands. His Cbet was 100% (only once). Let me know what you guys typically think this bet means.

Also, is my flat pre okay here and should we be leading on the flop?

PokerStars Game #54279786172: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25 USD) - 2010/12/14 21:49:28 ET
Table 'Veronika III' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: longyi520 ($25 in chips)
Seat 3: JSER222222 ($40.52 in chips)
Seat 4: caromthenine ($24.34 in chips)
Seat 5: REEBS77 ($27.12 in chips)
Seat 6: $upat ($38.68 in chips)
REEBS77: posts small blind $0.10
$upat: posts big blind $0.25
OIL MONIES: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to REEBS77 [As Jh]
longyi520: folds
JSER222222: raises $0.25 to $0.50
caromthenine: folds
REEBS77: calls $0.40
$upat: calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [Jc Qc Ac]
REEBS77: checks
$upat: checks
JSER222222: bets $3
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Old Dec 15,2010, 09:50 AM   #2
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I hate when people do this, seems to be a big trend suddenly too, like everyone read the same horrible book.

because of who you say he is, and out of the want to punish his stupidity, i probably raise to $9, fold to a shove, and if he calls, hope a 10, K, or club doesn't fall to pot bet the turn
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Old Dec 16,2010, 11:44 AM   #3
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Yeah I faced a couple more overbets similar to this one last night...

On this specific example, my plan was to check-raise once I saw the flop come down. I felt pretty certain that this type of flop hit him, and he would lead at me if I checked. I figured he would continue with pair + FD type hands, as well as AK/A10 so it was a bit of a value check-raise plan. The problem I saw with this plan was if he jammed overtop of me, I think I have to give it up. This seems like a leak... Comments?

When I checked and he overbet, I felt lost with my read. I didn't think he would overbet with 1 pair + draw hands like this anymore. Thought he could definitely have hit a set or a small flush, but maybe a guy like this can overbet something like AhKc/Ah10c? I dunno, I think his bet size REALLY narrows his range here, and in hindsight, I struggle to find more than a few hands in that range that we are ahead of...

Regardless, I check-raised him anyways. LOL I think the only reason was that I flopped two pair against the guy who I wanted to play against and I wasn't going to let him get away that easy. Unfortunately, he flatted my check raise ($8), and the turn brought another Q.

Does everyone agree we shut down after this Q pairs the board?

Also, would like some opinions on leading at the flop. What is our plan for future streets if we lead?
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Old Dec 16,2010, 12:27 PM   #4
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I don't like the check/raise on the flop here. The board is sopping wet, I prefer to B/R or b/f depending on how much the villain puts in. C/R of the over bet is setting your stack up to go in the middle with so many turn cards we hate (any club, 10, q, k etc).

I lead this flop for $1.50 and b/f the turn for $2.25 or so.
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Old Dec 26,2010, 04:14 PM   #5
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41 hands is an insignificant sample size and you are better off watching your opponent and analyzing his play than relying on HUD numbers. Flatting is +EV but 3 betting is +EVier so you should do that instead. Your opponent is probably very passive (what does the 3rd number mean? Given his lack of raising before the flop (the 2nd number) we can presume him to be a standard loose and passive fish) so even out of position this hand should play fine after the flop.

On the flop you hit gin, he bet big, now raise his ass and jam almost every turn.
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