Flopping a Baby Flush

pokerJAH · Nov 13,2008, 11:35 AM

Say you call with two small suited connectors. The flop brings you the flush (or you turn it). Since you have a baby flush, how much do you bet on the turn and river considering you may get counterfeited if another suited card comes on the turn or the river?

I noticed this situation at the final table where Eastgate hit a baby flush on the turn and he bet about 30% of the pot. I thought this would be dangerous because another suited card could hit and he wouldn't know where he stood. He may have been trying to encourage a raise and then he would have came over the top? Comments.

The_Awesome · Nov 13,2008, 11:45 AM

I usually chicken out here and try to take the pot down. I am betting over the pot on the flop and over 50% of the pot on the turn.

Or I am keeping the bets low and one hand on the eject handle.

30% after the flop would be a low bet but after the turn it's reasonable.

pkrfce9 · Nov 13,2008, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerJAH

I noticed this situation at the final table where Eastgate hit a baby flush on the turn and he bet about 30% of the pot.

heads up? the guy has < 15% chance to river him, assuimg eastgate is ahead now and his opponent has a single card of that suit, higher than his baby. so he is charging a very attractive price (at least for eastgate).

he's pricing it at the most he thinks he can get based on the range of hands his opponent likely has.

if he gets raised here, he has to make a decision but it hasn't cost him huge if he decides he is behind. or maybe he's trying to induce a bluff-raise by looking a bit weak. i don't know.

now, say his opponent has a set with a 4-card flush on the turn. hmmm...

has anyone checked his pulse to see if he is actually alive?

pokerJAH · Nov 13,2008, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkrfce9

has anyone checked his pulse to see if he is actually alive?

quite a odd reaction when he won the title; I think he was upset that the tournament was over; kind of like when they break a cash table at a casino and you have to carry over all your chips to a new table and get re-settled.

adpro · Nov 14,2008, 08:13 AM

I have been thinking about this quite a bit lately.

If you know for sure he is on a flush draw and you ahve the flush already, it's probably fairly accurate to assume that he's calculating 20% chance of hitting his flush on the turn, then another 20 on the river, right?

So, I like the 30% pot bet. That gives him probably close to 20% to call. So, he's being priced in at a higher amount than he should be calling (we know it's 15% chance for him to hit).

Is it good to think that way?

I'm thinking... if he knows pot odds and uses them, he's not calling a 50% pot raise, cause he will then need to call over 20%. However, if we raise enough for him to call 20% of the pot, he will come in thinking he has the right odds.

Any insight on this way of thinking, or should I just forget going down that path of thought?

pkrfce9 · Nov 14,2008, 08:59 AM

most donkeys will call any amount when they are chasing. it is frustrating when the catch (esp if you have to pay them off) but in the long run, as long as you are charging as much as you can, you should be able to profit from them.