Help me read/analyze this! 2/5 live Monster Pot, Good Villain overshoves the river!

T8urmoney · Sep 28,2010, 06:02 PM

In summary for me, I'm never folding here. If you find anyone who finds a fold, I think that is simply someone playing to high, and can't afford the loss.

Sometimes you get cold-decked....it sucks.......but it happens.

darbday · Sep 28,2010, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T8urmoney

..... I think that is simply someone playing to high,

not possible....

ReefAquarium · Oct 01,2010, 06:30 AM

As others have mentioned, I should *not* have called the villain, "good" in the title. My bad.

ReefAquarium · Oct 01,2010, 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTA Poker

Define insta-shove. What were his actions as the turn was dealt?

This is never a fold.

Where is the game located? It has some relevance.

In a typical 2/5 game I would strongly skew his range towards 33, obv he rarely turns up with 77. I don't think a straight instashoves without some consideration of the board pairing.

If you mean true instashove as in he didn't even consider the turn then I would weigh overpairs much lighter in his range (unless you peg his as a player that can never lay down queens on a wet board, which it sounds like you haven't).

I guess in summary if he truly instashoves without considering the turn (it is a very significant turn card) and isn't a huge donk (overshoving an overpair) then I'm down to 33, 45 and 77 and never folding without VERY good live tells. Are you allowed to expose your hand or talk to him much with another player all in? This is an ideal spot to get a lot of info from a bad/inexperienced live player by talking to him and him seeing a reaction to your exposed hand, etc.

He truly instashoved.

This is at Seneca where you can't show your hand.

I say to him, "I have top two and the only hand that beats me is 77"

I get a super strong read that he has 77 and only 77.....

But I didn't follow my read and ended up calling ... bleah...

ReefAquarium · Oct 01,2010, 06:56 AM

[Rounders]

[Narrating] Here's the beauty of this game.
- Go ahead. - [Narrating] I just got top two pair on the flop,
and I want to keep him in the hand.
Against your average guy, I'd set a bear trap, hardly bet at all.
Let him walk into it. But KGB's too smart for that.
So, what I've got to do is over-bet the pot,
make it look like I'm trying to buy it.
- I bet $ . - Then he plays back at me, and I get paid off.
Call.
[Narrating] My guess is Teddy's on a flush draw.
Burn and turn.
[Narrating] There's my money card, nine of hearts.
I got a full house.
- To the bettor. - Check's good.
[Narrating] Now I hope a spade falls and Teddy makes his flush.
That way he'll bet strong, and I'll beat him with my nines full over aces.
I'm going to bet...
Bet...
$ .
Time.
[Narrating] I want him to think that I'm pondering a call,
but all I'm really thinking about is Vegas and the fucking Mirage.
All right, your plus I have another to raise you.
Um...
Yeah, I'm gonna go all in, 'cause I don't think you got the spades.
You are right. I don't have spades.
[Narrating] I know before the cards are even turned over.
Aces full, Mike.

[/Rounders]

ReefAquarium · Oct 01,2010, 08:38 PM

I'm thinking that I should have trusted my read.

I had a very strong read was that he had 77.

Consider the action on the flop
Bet
Pot sized raise from a player who only shows AA, AA, KK, AK
Call from a tight player.
Check raise all in from an idiot who could have a straight.
Attempted insta-over-shove all in.

I don't see him as a guy who would raise preflop with AA, 33 or 45s.

So that only leaves 77.

It's hard to convey in a post what I picked up on him over 3 hours but. I was almost sure that he had 77.

But at the last second I changed my mind an called.

Richard~ · Oct 02,2010, 02:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReefAquarium

I don't see him as a guy who would raise preflop with AA

No offence but get over yourself lol. Sure you might have a postflop read that he doesn't have aces but this comment is pretty ridiculous

blackmagicz · Oct 04,2010, 09:23 AM

There is no way ever I am folding ever especially in a 2 5 game. Unless phil ivey decided that he wanted to slum it with the avg joe

syphilaids · Oct 05,2010, 01:16 PM

If he can raise with 77 in a multi-way pot he sure as hell can raise with 33 and 45s. His raise doesn't really knock anyone out here, and he knows that.
With several limpers in the hands he could have AA here too.
It's just a cooler, don't over think, and don't fold the 2nd nuts.

kingkao86 · Oct 25,2010, 02:04 AM

Man, that is one cold deck.
Good thread and your knack for details is amazing.

Meistro · Oct 27,2010, 08:48 PM

Fold preflop. What sort of nut hand are you hoping to hit with 67o? Reraising is bad, because the table sounds loose, so you could easily get called in a spot or two, but with the right reads and the right image it can be a profitable play on occasion. You should probably reraise the first time around on the flop and of course you would never fold this turn. Villians "overbet" on the turn was extremely reasonable, and any other bet sizing is rather dumb in fact. Pot size is $750. Any bet commits him and you just took two in the face on the flop. Clearly you like your hand, but you might not like it by the river, so why not jam and stack you?