live 1/2 MOAR!

syphilaids · Oct 20,2010, 09:46 PM

After playing TAG for about 3 hours (haven't shown a hand down yet, playing ~15% of hands) I make this incredibly intellegent move...

UTG+2 limps (300)
villian limps (~170)
HERO (HJ)= Th 8c (300) raises to $12
SB calls
UTG+2 calls
Villian calls

Pot=$50
FLOP
9c 7s 4d
check to me
HERO bets $35
2 folds, villian RAISES to $85

It's $50 to call and I have position. Implied odds are shit cause he has about 75 behind. I have played about 10 hands with this guy so have no idea where he stands. We should call here getting 3:1 odds here, no?

Card Whale · Oct 20,2010, 11:03 PM

would a shove be a bad play?

schabs · Oct 20,2010, 11:53 PM

im failing to see incredible greatness here....villian limps which means he probably has small to med pocket pair.

you caught a juicy part of a relatively safe flop and your semi bluff bet on the flop just got popped....if you feel like gambling then shoving is a no brainer.

Card Whale · Oct 20,2010, 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by schabs

im failing to see incredible greatness here....villian limps which means he probably has small to med pocket pair.

you caught a juicy part of a relatively safe flop and your semi bluff bet on the flop just got popped....if you feel like gambling then shoving is a no brainer.

So this would never be the right play?.....

DataMn · Oct 21,2010, 12:02 AM

I agree with card whale. Shove.

I would assume that no matter what comes on the turn your opponent is probably going to shove their chips in - so it would be better to be on the offensive.

If the turn doesn't come with one of your 8 outs for the straight (and your opponent goes all in) are you going to give up the $293 in the pot for $73 more dollars?? Or - if a straight card comes might your opponent possibly fold instead of calling for the rest of their money?

At the current moment you have $47 in the pot. If we assume that your opponent has an overpair (not including any of the cards you need for your straight) then you have a winning percentage of 34.2%. Your equity when you go all in and get called by an overpair is -$44.828 (Better than folding right now!). Add in fact that your opponent may decide that you are strong and fold the winnings to you without putting their $73 in (or - as I have seen sometimes - someone actually knows in their mind that they need to keep $40, but bought in for a larger amount to play with the larger stack size) Adding up all of the factors I believe indicates that you should shove.

GTA Poker · Oct 21,2010, 01:17 AM

EZ shove

pokerJAH · Oct 21,2010, 05:43 AM

I hate these situations as I find they just cost me money in the end. Let someone else run the numbers , like villian to be a lot deeper in this situation as you want to make money if you hit. Find a better spot, your only in the hand for $47, so why risk losing another $125? Does everyone else think the other player is folding for another $75??

darbday · Oct 21,2010, 08:16 AM

if you think he might fold its a snap shove, but i think he represents an overpair or a set here and he won't. none the less you're being offered 3 to one on the flop, where you at worst able to call that (over pair puts you at 2 to 1 against which is great). his shove on the turn will give you 4 to 1 which you are again able to call his against most turn cards as you are likely at worst a 4 to 1 dog (unless he fills up which he might not be able to)......shove now.

syphilaids · Oct 21,2010, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by schabs

im failing to see incredible greatness here....villian limps which means he probably has small to med pocket pair.

Sorry I guess my sarcasm is hard to detect on the internet.

Thanks for the posts guys. I think everyone is right by shoving here. Blunder on my part anyway, because I flat called.

POT ~$220

TURN = Td
Villian shoves, I have to call I think this is a no brainer here at least.

RIVER = Qd

Villian says "you win, I got nothing, I got A high"
In my mind I'm like, shiiiiiiit sweet! Love running into the bottom of people's ranges! "I got a pair of tens."

Score a massive pot with a stupid hand. GOOOOOOO SYPHILAIDS!

Meistro · Oct 27,2010, 08:53 PM

Preflop isn't terrible, assuming your opposition is passive, but I would need to have a specific target in mind, like one or both of the limpers are likely to fold to my raise, like the blinds are tight, like the limpers play terribly post flop, like my image is rock tight, like the game played VERY passively.

I can't blame you for betting the flop, it's one of the best flops for you possible. Your draw is fairly nuttish, and you built a big pot might as well try to steal it. I think you are getting around 4:1 to see a turn, so it is probably close in ev between folding and calling. Shoving gives you two cards but it costs you more to see them if he calls, it also gives you a chance to win the pot. Usually flop raises are fairly strong, but it turns out he was "bluffing" in this case.