Johnith

I have started to use a new method to make tough calls based on what my oponent might be holding ( i used to just randomly guess). I am almost positive this method is wrong in some way but here it is.

Make a chart with two sides, Win and Loose. Place the hands and the number of combinations of those hands in each section.

Ex) You have JJ (with 40bb left) , one openent (has 20bb left) raises 3x bb then the SB folds and you call from the BB. The oponent is just playing a standard tight game.

Flop 2h 6c 9c

Oponent bets 7BB leaving him with 10 BB left. At this point hes pot committed and we need to find out if our JJ is ahead, time for my chart.

His possible hands where we are ahead: AK (16 combinations) AQ (16 combinations) 88 (6 cominations) 1010 ( 6 combinations) A9 (16 combinations). (i know some other possibilites but this is just a very rough example). A total of 60 combinations.

His possible hands where we are behind: 66 (3 combinations) 99 ( 3 combinations) QQ (6 combinations) KK (6combinations) AA ( 6 combinations) 22 (3 combinations). Total of 24 combinations

Since we find a 2-1 lead for his hands where we are ahead, a repush on our committed opponent seems like a good play.

Alright, as i said earlyer im sure this method is extremely flawed and some input on how to calculate an oponents range of hands better would be appreciated. Thanks to anyone who helps out! Good luck at the tables!

pokerJAH

this type of analysis seems to disregard his previous betting patterns (what does he 'normally' raise pre-flop 3BB in this position?, what type of player is he (tight/aggressive)?

I like the gut feel approach. Not sure how you can do these detailed analysis on the fly?

Vandal

It's not whether you wynn or loose...

pkrfce9

this is a very good start.

next, put some likehood behind each holding.

then, calculate your ev against each holding.

now use the weights assigned previously to calculate your ev against his range.

somewhere you have to factor in how he is likely to respond to your action if you smooth call vs push. here you have said he is committed so it is irrelevant but in other cases, you must factor in the benefits of pushing vs calling. (you want a draw to pay but sometimes you want fold equity on your side, too)

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Johnith

thanks for the feedback! I have a question about putting the hand combinations together. When deciding the possibility of the oponents holding, is it right to consider the 2 non pocket pair cards as 16 possible combinations vs the 6 combinations of pocket pairs. Then using that information to conclude that its more likely that the oponent is holding the 2 card combination rather than the pocket pair.

Eg) i put my oponent on 2 hands AA or AK
Since there are 16 combinations for AK and only 6 for AA, i conclude hes more likely to have AK. Is this reasoning correct? thanks

pkrfce9

i guess the way i think about it is if he is likely to play both hands the same way, then he is more likely to have AK. does this make sense?

so if you figure an opponent will re-raise OOP PF with only KK+ and AK, then yes, he is more likely to have AK here. but if he would only lead on the flop with top pair or better, then your read should change if he leads out.

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adpro

I like this way of thinking about the chances of hands. So, yeah, when you get a range of hands that he could be on, for sure use this way of thinking.

It can be flawed if you don't properly use the information you have gathered about an opponent to put them on hands, though.

tellbox

I find that playing Limit Hold'em is great practice for putting your opponent on a hand. You'll see more showdowns, it's less likely that your opponent will bluff and there's a language to betting in Limit Poker which should tell you exactly what your opponent has. Micro limits online or Small Stakes live are good examples as even Small Stakes online is pretty aggressive.

Here's an easy one.

Heads up $2/$4 FL:

SB Raises to $4.
BB calls $2.

Flop 8c 4d 2c

BB checks
SB Bets $2
BB calls

Turn Jh

BB checks
SB bets $4
BB calls

River Kh

BB bets $4 ......

What does BB have?

adpro

At least a K. Maybe two pairs or AK? I'll go over my thoughts in a second.

I agree with this though. I do play some limit games so I can get a feel for reads. I generally win more at limit games, but I still like no-limit much more. You can get good reads in no limit as well, but at a price sometimes.

Calling in limit can be tricky. For example, with the above example, what would you have to have to call a pre-flop raise and someone betting into you on every street?

I would put him on AK almost exactly. He would likely fold with K-rag or just a pair on the flop. KK, he would be betting on the flop or the turn. I don't see him continuing to throw his money away with KQ, but he could be somewhat of a donk. Although, if he was putting you on only a pair, maybe he would call with KQ.

So, yeah, I almost always put him on AK here, unless he's a complete donk.

I wouldn't play AK this way, but a lot of people do.

actyper

never mind

tellbox

Kc Xc

BB was calling to chase his flush and rivered top pair.

stpboy

I kind of do a variation of your chart here sometimes. I will give an example to best explain what I am talking about.

NLHE Live tournament

I had been pretty active at the table however showing down premiums. I pick up JJ in EP and raise it standard 3x. LAG (not a maniac just generally LAG- Mario) player to my left raises me up another 5x after he had given it some thought. I just call.

Flop comes 9 x x

I fire out a 75% of the pot bet.
Mario raises me up, committing me to pretty much go all the way in this hand.

Now I think aloud. The only hands that I can see him re-raising me preflop with would be AK, AQ, 1010-AA. I can now discount AK and AQ because even him being LAG he is not going to commit this much after I've shown strength after the flop on a 9-high board. I do not believe he has AA as there was no arrogance behind his raises however is obviously a possibility. I can now limit it to KK, QQ, JJ or 1010. Two hands I lose against, one I tie and one I beat.

Time for me to cut my losses and fold.

For the record he ended up showing me 1010 after my analysis and fold. Either way, I felt good about it.

stp

*A high-fiiiiive for anyone that can tell me where this hand was played

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Big Mike

This BB is playing too passively at limit hold'em heads up if he really has KTcc. My guess based on games I play would have been more like A4o or maybe 97o looking to get paid off by AQ/AT, but knowing that few Jx hands will raise the K river forcing them to fold.
If this BB did have KTcc, he probably should have checkraised the flop with two overs and a flushdraw.
Overall i DO think LHE is good for handreading, but be careful translating those skills to NL. Because in NL this is a tough river for the sb, but in Limit it's probably a call with the 85s he raised on the button.