TheBowlBoy

The correct answer is it is zero ev and I am not even a math guy.
It doesn't matter how many times you run it, it isn't going to change your EV.

If you get your money in as a 70% favorite and run it not twice, but an infinite amount of times, you'll realize your 70% equity. So in a 200bb pot you're going to win 140bb of it by running it an infinite amount of times and there is zero variance because your green line will be exactly where your EV line is for the hand. When you run it once you are you are exposed to that variance because 30% of the time you lose the entire pot which means you will be 140bb below EV but win you scoop the whole pot you're running 60bb above EV.

I don't understand why people seem to think that its better for the guy behind. The EV doesn't change no matter how many times you run it.

If you were going to flip coins with somebody but you agreed that on every bet there would be two flips and you had to win both to win the bet and where it goes 1-1 you chop, I think its fair to say that their is no debating the fact that both guys are still at 50% each regardless of how many times we flip. So why does it change if we're a 70-30 favorite? We're still 70%.

getem76

perhaps ive worded it all wrong, your say 30% everytime, need to think if your 30% running it once, your just 30% and your done....some cards were burned during that time, so your 30% again while running twice... Im not saying it goes up in any way, you have a better chance, much like the coin flip at 1-1 there is still luck involed.

even a better way to look at it, if you want to run something at 70-30 anyone on the forums, we will set it up i will take the 70 you can have the 30, run it many times as you want....yes 30 will get there, not nearly as many times as 70!!

running it more than once gives you a better chance to get some of your money back is probably all i was saying, trying to save some face on getting it in badly I didnt think i was creating a debate, just sayin

compuease

I don't think any of us had any idea what you were trying to say with your first post on the subject. Re-read yours and then BowlBoy's post, see the difference?

TheBowlBoy

This is true. As an underdog, you're going to get something more often by running it twice because everytime you run it, your variance is reduced and you move closer to realizing your true equity in the hand.

Nevertheless, it does not effect your EV. It does reduce variance. I would recommend always running it twice when people ask. It'll give you a more friendly fun image, and people will be more willing to gamble with you in the future because of their perceived increased chances of hitting their hand.

With regards to the effect of dead cards, I'm really not a math guy but I've read about this debate on other forums before and I'm pretty sure it doesn't effect things. If you have a flush draw on the turn you have 9 outs from 46 cards in the deck. If the river bricks and you run it again you still have 9 outs but now out of 45 cards. It slightly increases your chances of hitting on the second run just like your chances of hitting are slightly better on the river than on the turn. However, it works both ways. If you happen to hit your flush on the first run, then you now only have 8 outs from 45 in the deck, making you even less likely to hit on the 2nd run and scoop the whole pot.

If you are all-in on the flop, a small but not insignificant amount of the time you hit your flush on the turn, the river will bring another flush card and waste one of your outs.

I'm not a math guy, so if I've posted something wrong here please feel free to point it out to me.

compuease

Explanation bang on... This seems to come up every few months but always provokes some interesting discussion.. And you are right, dead cards make no diff, nor does the order they come out.

ReefAquarium

On full tilt the rake increases from $3 to $4 if you run it twice.

It's -ev to run it twice if they increase the rake. Never ever do it.

Turn "Always run it twice" off in your options or you're going to get screwed by the rake.

__________________
Not smarter than a grade 5 or Kristy Sea

canadian87

If you can calculate the pot odds, do it whenever you're less than 50%. Otherwise pass.

sump

RIT when you have a lot of outs. If you play PLO and you flop a big hand like a wrap or a wrap+FD and you get it in vs top set it is common to run it twice in this spot because you are basically flipping and a board pair will shut you out.

You run it once when you have less outs i.e. 1-4 outs because if it hits the 1st time its going to be tough to hit it twice. The whole point is to reduce the variance and it games like PLO running it twice is more common but i personally don't do it in NLHE unless im up against a OESFD or something like that.