Now I know the ridicule for possibly folding a set here will be coming....here's my mental notes on the Button:
3-bet exactly zero times in 2.5 hrs playing with him (and I always give alot of opportunities for getting threed). Seen one hand of his when he opened pre, bunch of callers (as well as me in the SB), flop K J 7, he doubles through me holding KK (I have J7 obv), in which I put him all in on the check raise.
Is there ever a spot to fold a set on a dry board?..........or do u chalk it up to variance and fistpump snap call?
What hands does this villain have in his range?
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hmm, I wouldn't be comfortable in this spot either. It's one of those spots that if you fold and you're right you're an amazing player and if you fold and you're wrong you're the biggest fish of the month at the casino.
Based on your description I guess his range is AA possibly 1010 if he can ever 3bet that and possibly AK if he spews that postflop and also the constant live player random card spew factor that you have to account a little bit for
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I disagree with Richard, if you call here and are wrong you are not 'the biggest fish...'.
It's hard to fold a set.
It's impossible on that board with the action the way it went to fold. PERIOD.
His range to my mind is AT+/AA.
Now I also keep in mind to myself that 2.5 hours is NOT long enough to get an idea of a players 3bet range with a huge amount of accuracy.
So stove your question vs. that range.
Board: As Td 4c 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 92.188% 92.19% 00.00% 5841 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 07.813% 07.81% 00.00% 495 0.00 { AA, ATs+, ATo+ }
Add in TT:
Board: As Td 4c 7h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 86.898% 86.90% 00.00% 5850 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 13.102% 13.10% 00.00% 882 0.00 { AA, TT, ATs+, ATo+ }
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EDIT!!!!
I (after thinking about this) even ran a stove for AA,TT,AKs/Ako (Richards range above). and you are still a 67-32% favourite.
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This seems to be typical MUB, you got the exact spot you wanted, a guy shipping into you and you hold a strong hand (3rd nuts on flop, 4th on turn), and you are thinking about folding?
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"...the monkey looks to make sure we are not playing limit at Brantford." - Redington
Despite what stove says here, I think I would fold this spot. I'm looking at it two ways. I have to call 450 to protect the 110 I've put in, which is really not appealing. Or I have to call 450 to win 705. Which means I have to win a lot of the time. Which according to stove we should... Even against his more probable range of AK, AA, TT. If we can give him AK. One thing I know about old gentlemen(60+), they do not 3 bet light. It's rare they 3 bet AK, unless they are more active. They tend to call pre flop.
Long term, it's likely a call. But there will be better spots, and that's what live poker is about. Not many people can play a million hands live.
If this was a younger kid, I'd have the chips in the middle before his.
I have to say the way you describe the player and the hand you played previously I would snap call an all-in on the turn. If he is holding aces or tens why would he be afraid to get value here? The board is dry and he can't be afraid of a gutshot straight draw sticking around. There is no real reason for him to over bet the pot here with those hands and would rather get more value and get the rest in on the river. I'm sure you're good here.
If he is holding aces or tens why would he be afraid to get value here?
this is a typical error that most players i have ever played with make. I still make it but waayyy less than i used to. We have players on this forum that open jam top hands in any game at any level.
Not saying your wrong but we can't discount aces or a set ever here. Its perfectly reasonable for him to check flop and jam turn.
I don't like squeezing with 44 pre but maybe its ok cause its really deep? with 100bbs or so I think its not good.
His button 3bet i think can be looked at as a 4bet and he likely never has AT AJ and maybe even never AQ.
Unless you think your image has caused him to get smart one time. But I think we trick ourselves too much in thinking our opponents ever truly adjust to us.
also we don't really ever have to fold a set to set
If he doesn't 3bet ak then your drawing to like 7%, but if he does your 80% if I can't absolutely get ak out of his range then I'd call...
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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.
If he views you as the kind of player who is going to call pre with J7 and check shove him on the turn with it, he is value betting his hand here when he shoves.
I will be the one who nit folds this more often than not when the hand plays like this. I'm not saying a call is wrong, just that given what you said about him always showing up with the nuts, I dont think the call is right. Keep in mind, we are playing 1/2 live. I believe the OP is from edmonton. These games are special.
Given all this, the line I would of took was to check raise the turn to 180ish. You can go 220 if you feel strong. If he then shoves over, snap fold. If he calls, shove turn.
It all comes down to how often you really think he does this with AK. If you think it's a decent % of the time, put the chips in. If you feel, like I do, that he would play AK slower, fold.
I think the answer here is, if your gonna fold in this spot you should just fold pre, because it makes it very unprofitabe. Im never folding here, but im a fish lol. I have to agree with zunni and say 2.5 hours is no where near enough of a sample to provide a 3bet range for button.
Call worse case senerio he has AA and you bink a 4 on the river! easy game
I think the answer here is, if your gonna fold in this spot you should just fold pre, because it makes it very unprofitabe. Im never folding here, but im a fish lol. I have to agree with zunni and say 2.5 hours is no where near enough of a sample to provide a 3bet range for button.
Call worse case senerio he has AA and you bink a 4 on the river! easy game
I'm never folding here preflop with stack sizes.....ever.....not saying calling is wrong....asking if it's ever OK to fold.
Agree somewhat to the 2.5hrs of play line.....but I'm sure if any of you were there, you would have seen it the same way I explained (basically a super predictable 60 year old with some kind of Schwartzenegger accent).
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President of the Beration Nation
I'm determined to get one of you one my side!!! Math time.
I run the math, for about an hour now because I wanted to make sure I was right. If I'm still wrong, I'm going to spend a week in grade school.
(amount in pot)705:450(amount we have to call)
Calculator says this is 1.56:1 or 3:2. Which means we have to win 2 times out of every 3 or 66% of the time, making this a break even call based on Richards range for button. That makes it far from a snap call, or even an easy decision once the reads are factored in.
On a side note, to do this at the table, break it down. 705:450 = 70:45 = 14:9. 9 goes into 14 1.5 times. Which gives you 1.5:1
Location: Milton, poker capital of the world.. after Wloo that is.
Posts: 9,242
Ok guys, I've been watching this thread with great great interest and think it's time for this older (>60) euro (English actually) uber tight guy to give his perspective. Don't be so quick to discount a call or a fold. This one really is situationally dependent and can not be done solely on math. With this dry of a board I, (meaning me), am not jamming that much with less than a bigger set... at least 80% of the time.. However I am very aware of my sqeaky tight image playing cash and if he is smart he will be aware of his as well.. Very selectively I will do the same as he did with much less than even AK.
T8, is this someone you have played with other times? Could he be cognizant of what you think of him and be using that very fact? It's something I will do against an uber lag (but also good player) who I know has the ability to fold.
I can only think of one time that I have been called in this situation but probably have done it successfully 7-8 times. I would NOT do this against a random. Plenty of better spots.
is it 40% because we are getting a better deal on our money 1 for 1
I think we discussed something like this in a different thread, and I posted something along those lines. I'm going to say I was wrong there, i was likely only considering the times the bet pot. An overshove is a special situation that I probably wasn't thinking about at that time. Sorry if that is what you were recalling.
Regardless of it all, great hand to post about T8. It's making me really use my brain today! It's not a clear cut choice in either direction.
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However I am very aware of my sqeaky tight image playing cash and if he is smart he will be aware of his as well.. Very selectively I will do the same as he did with much less than even AK. 
