zunni74

AK on AT47 is the nuts to 99% of live 1/2 players. It's so unlikely he's thinking about what you have but is just used to making big bets with strong hands and having some player call their stacks off and lose to them.

If they lose, it's because they were unlucky.

This is true for pretty much every older player I've ever played with. Heck this is true to most 1/2 players.

Side note, the way again 99% of 1/2 players play a set is they SLOW PLAY IT. Not bet flop/ ship the turn. They view AK different from a set (even though they are pretty much essentially the same hand on that board) and bet AK for value, while slowplay the monster that is a flopped set. They would at least check the flop back to try to let someone 'get something'


Why would he ever play AK slow

I don't understand this fear of monsters under the bed. You beat AT/AK which makes up a significant percentage of his range here.

Even just look at the combinatorics of the situation:

There are just 3 combinations of either TT or AA. So 6 combinations to fear that you are losing to.

There are 12 combinations of AK. Another 12 of AQ and another 12 of AJ. There are 9 combinations of AT.

So even if it's JUST TT or AA or AK, AK is twice as likely mathematically than either pocket pair. Never mind how many combos there are as you add other hands.

You are wrong.

This is a call 100% of the time here unless he flips over and shows me AA's or TT's before I call.

It's a +ev play always and the fact that anyone could consider a fold here boggles my mind without any 'special' read. Which essentially would be, you have played with this guy for 6 months and the only time in 6 months he's 3 bet is with AA's.

This is not a Shitty Set Spot, this is Valuetown, population.. You.

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Side note, post this in Small Stakes on 2+2, see what type of responses you get. I would love to see what they have to say.

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"...the monkey looks to make sure we are not playing limit at Brantford." - Redington

compuease

Zunni, respectfully, you are way to simplistic in your reasoning to take such a strong position for calling. I find it hard to believe that you have played a lot of 1/2 and really believe it. While I certainly don't fault a call here and would very likely call myself most of the time. There is certainly a case for folding, maybe not a strong one but a case nonetheless...


But this is why this is a great thread, as it brings out multiple opinions and thoughts.


ev1 please continue.. all very valuable info for this old nit.

zunni74

Sorry, this thought process was bothering me so much I had to come back downstairs from being in bed just to post this.

What better spots are you going to be shoved into where you are ahead 86-92% of a very selective range for your opponent ON THE TURN??

In order for that to happen, you need to have the nuts, and your opponent misread their hand and think they have the nuts and shove into you (like you have Straight flush and your opponent has the nut flush), this is so unlikely that I've seen it happen once in 4 years of regular live play. So not a 'better spot' that you are likely going to run into.

I also wanted to say that I don't think any of us should be short selling the potential range of an older 3better after 2.5 hours of observation. (especially if this is the first time he's 3bet). To eliminate AQ/AJ from the range of hands he's likely to have is a mistake imo. Especially if we are keeping TT's??

__________________
"...the monkey looks to make sure we are not playing limit at Brantford." - Redington

T8urmoney

hmmm.....partially agree....but I'd have to say that 99% of players are not going to ship with AK in this spot let alone AA....I'd be surprised if 10% did.


I didn't mention in that previous hand where he had top set, and me bottom two........he did not slow play, as it was checked to him, and I check raised, he snap shoves, and I have to call.

Indeed, but probably not played this fast either.

Obviously I'm 'almost' never folding a set on a dry board....this is an extreme circumstance that made me recondsider...



lol........OK, let's see me get flamed....


Anyhow, result of the hand, I folded face up after tanking for a few minutes.

He shows AA........

Maybe a bad fold......but at what point do you trust your read on the situation?

I think longterm, it's for sure +ev to call here. I just couldn't justify the call when I was 75% sure I was beat.

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President of the Beration Nation

zunni74

I don't disagree, but given the way that the action went, AK is way more likely than AA's (never mind the combinatorics of the situation). He leads the flop with AK hoping someone has a piece big enough to call (another A perhaps), and once he feels like you have a piece and a blank comes on the turn, he ships because he feels he's way ahead and you have to have a piece big enough to call.

Typically a guy with AA's won't play it that way because he knows there's only one Ace left and it's unlikely you have a piece. He will take a card or two off and hope you get 2 pair and can call a river bet.

Action is totally different here. He's already got someone on the line that will likely call his all-in. IE. you check-raised.

Wow, this guy is terri-horrible. I think this is one of these players you make a note on and snap-fold to any 3-bet because he's obviously not smart enough to disguise his hand strength in any way/shape/form. Certainly not common.

Regardless of results (and most/all of you know why), I get this in 100 times out of 100 against any unknown or fairly unknown player. When he shows me this, I drink his milkshake for the rest of this session and any others I play against him because he has shown himself to be beyond transparent. Nice you didn't have to pay to prove you were right.

Oh and I do think posting this on 2+2 is a good idea (Live Low Limit is the forum you want), link the thread here. I'd love to see if I'm way off in my analysis.

__________________
"...the monkey looks to make sure we are not playing limit at Brantford." - Redington

T8urmoney

Set Spot - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum - Live Poker Low-stakes NL

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President of the Beration Nation

darbday

i was thinking that for sure too. What BTP is saying is if we do our math and decide a set mine will be profitable and then we hit our set.....our math is wrong pre if we fold to further action with a dry board.

However if we decided villain had a uber tight 3bet range here we can fold on an ace high board if he never bluff shoves.

We hit out set about 1 in 7 and there is an ace on the flop about 1 in 4......comes out to about 14% we hit but 25% of that 14% we have to fold to an Ace high flop.......

seems you need 10 to 1 on your money assuming the villain stacks always which is true in one sense because his range is so nutted ....but not so much if he has QQ or KK and an over card comes off for him

just saying it can still be profitable.... not quite sure it is here....prob still a little.

I think we can get a big enough sample in some situations especially live within secs......but you crush as....and therefore.....you ARE the math....

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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.

darbday

although we can change the range of this guy and that guy.......we are still always going to do what the math says.....

we can calculate that easy too by adding in some random hands or by slipping in some versions of ak like just suited if we want 25% or just a couple versions if we want less.

So we can do the math on what you are saying and it skews it towards calling but really villain has to be doing this with AK to make this a call ....its what T8 is saying and I think its a valid question and a NH

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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.

darbday

I don't think its more likely ....not if villain never 3bet ak here. and the reason I'm thinking thats possible is because T8 squeezed which is somewhat like a 3bet. It makes villains 3bet more like a four bet and his range is stronger and nutted.....I think at the very least with villains image and description ..he flats ak sometimes.


maybe horrible but i think predictable is better. but if we had this note before this hand we would surely fold on this turn i think.

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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.

GTA Poker

Didn't read every post. I see everyone talking about the math but certainly this guy had some live tells as well that can or did contribute to your decision. There are so many players at yhead that have consistent tells in big bet spots like this.

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That level 5 trap really paid off...ship him the cookies.

OneTime1Time

Zunni. You did a stove for the range of AA, TT, AK. It showed 44 to be a 67% favorite. You can give him AQ and AJ if you want, but I won't until he shows me a reason to give him that. It's how I choose to build my hand range in a live setting.

I did the math that shows you have to win 66% of the time to break even. And I ball parked, but I would say you need at least 62%. If you want to snap call here virtual break even plays, I hope you have deep bankroll. Personally, I will wait for one of those spots where my money is going in better.

Consider this, if he overshoves for 900 are you calling? I will agree with you that he is a terri-horrible player. I will also agree that in 95% of the times this can happen, it's a call. Just not this time. The read is that he only shows up with the nuts. If he is abusing this, all the power to him. I'll get him next time.

As for him range balancing, he is a mid 60s 1/2 live player. I doubt he even knows what range is, let alone how to properly balance it. Bad players are bad. This is why over shoving works so well, 95% of players snap call with 44. I only have to take you to shove Ville once to make up for a lot of trips to valuetown.

I'm going to just agree to disagree on everything else.

darbday

yes but just that once your finished noting your tells then you turn that into math to make your decision....

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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.

OneTime1Time

I woke up and had an aha! Moment. Darb is right, it's only 40% of the time that we need to win. I'm going back to grade school for a week. I guess I need to relearn how to read fractions.

I'll go back and edit some posts this morning when I turn my laptop on. Maybe now I can get some sleep.