betrthanphil

Seeing vekked's 200NL hand made me think a lot, more than I have in awhile haha so decided to play a couple tables today. This hand made me think a lot possibly more than I should have, however want to see what people think here.
Not much history. 28/28/8 through 25 hands so really nothing to go by.
Well here it is. Make comments on any street.

PokerStars Hand #75135169658: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2 USD) - 2012/02/06 13:29:04 ET
Table 'Gotha X' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: BetrThanPhil ($260.23 in chips)
Seat 2: Kybard1 ($209 in chips)
Seat 3: KingXXLeo ($170.18 in chips)
Seat 4: ManOnHorse ($200 in chips)
Seat 5: PSÄ! ($215.55 in chips)
Seat 6: EluSiveMark ($238.20 in chips)
EluSiveMark: posts small blind $1
BetrThanPhil: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BetrThanPhil [9h 9d]
Kybard1: folds
KingXXLeo: folds
ManOnHorse: folds
PSÄ!: raises $3 to $5
EluSiveMark: folds
BetrThanPhil: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [7d 6c 8c]
BetrThanPhil: bets $8
PSÄ!: raises $20 to $28
BetrThanPhil: calls $20
*** TURN *** [7d 6c 8c] [Qh]
BetrThanPhil: checks
PSÄ!: bets $43
BetrThanPhil: calls $43
*** RIVER *** [7d 6c 8c Qh] [Js]
BetrThanPhil: checks
PSÄ!: bets $139.55 and is all-in
BetrThanPhil: ?

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Scotty12

Cant base much on 25 hands other than throwing out the possibility he is a huge nit.

I would have 3bet pre. As played I c/r flop

I would c/f turn. His sizing looks like he'll be jamming for value/bluffs and c/c puts you in a tough spot on almost all rivers.

Your hand is behind a reasonable % of the time given action and so many rivers are headaches for you.

As played c/f riv

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ReefAquarium

28/28/8

VPIP/PFR/AF

28/28/8 is not a nit.

Nits are something like 12/7/.4

Based on the tiny 25 sample size I'd say he's loose and aggressive and he never limps.

It's certainly possible he's a nit but our data indicates otherwise.

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DataMn

Ummm... read Scotty's statement again.

Hint: Throwing out means the same as "getting rid of".

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compuease

Just your lowly nit mod inputting here... I mostly play $50.NL online, euro sites predominately, and 1/2 live so take that for what it's worth.. Maybe with my style I get run over occasionally but all full ring, I am looking to make easy decisions for stacks. We are over 100bb effective pre so I'm primarily playing set value here. I call pre, check call a medium bet on the flop (since I'm open ended) and fold river. Then top up..
Why get into meta gaming with no specific read on op playing full ring? Just way too many easier ways to make profit... Now I may be way off since I don't play this high online but it's my view any ways. Please tear me apart..

eeetee2011

as played I fold river you can make an argument to just fold the turn too but i just c/c the flop c/c turn fold river its hard to get value out of this hand even if we hit. You can also c/r the flop but im folding if he 4bets the flop and it puts in a weird spot if he calls and we brick. by donking the flop it just makes it easy for him to play for stacks

eeetee2011

we think alike lol

ILike2Play

He's a multi table reg at 1-2 if I remember the name correctly and to me they seem to raise light. But the Q and J are definitely in his range in my opinion. I throw any stats out the window for the amount of hands and just play by instinct here. Pretty much a guessing game in my opinion but I think he probably hit one of the over pair. Hero call or get him later.

The Highflyer

I think the hand goes wrong with you leading the flop, either c/r or c/c flop imo. This disguises your hand well but helps to expose his hand and you can control the pot better.

...The way you played it though the rest of the way I would personally c/r the turn and want a flat or fold and fold to a push here. This would give you the advantage in the hand force him to make a tough decision.

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betrthanphil

well what I was thinking here, is not that there are a lot of tricky cards that could come up but a lot of good ones for me. Was gonna jam on river if C came, 10, 5. Didnt put him on the flush draw, also he raises every puck that is folded to him. When the river came I was check folding then he jammed and I just stopped to think. The turn and river are both bad for his range. In my eyes there is no q or j in his range...maybe j10cc but then he wouldnt be jamming this river. SO then I thought a set might be possible (66,77,88) but if he had those hands what is he putting me on the call a jam on river as he has blockers to all 2 pair hands. So lead me to believe that Im only losing to 45,95,109. Which are all possible but I figured it be more likely for him to play a hand like 9cxc, or maybe like A9 with Ac or even 105cc as i said he raises every button. Now I may have thought way to much into this since i was planning on check folding but thats where my thoughts took me. Wont say if I called or folded etc yet. Just want to see what a few others have to say.....maybe my thoughts are way out in left field lol

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eeetee2011

i played lower limits when i multitabled and would raise a donk bet 90% of the time so i think his range is still huge and has hands like AJ , QJ ,KQ etc. in it

betrthanphil

Not at these stakes, on this board, thats suicide

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Vekked

I agree with Scotty about c/r here without any real read, especially given that his small sample is on the aggressive side. Basically I think as a standard you should only throw in donk betting once you know someone takes pot control lines or checks back a lot, and if someone c-bets a ton you should basically just c/r a bunch instead of donking. There's definitely situations and players you should be leading against even if they c-bet a bunch because of their specific reactions to donk bets (obv if someone just tools out every time you lead then it's good to lead even if they c-bet a bunch), but for a basic strategy you should default to c/r'ing if you have no reason to do otherwise. On top of that, vs. someone who's 28/28 so far I'd guess they are more likely to be someone who c-bets a lot.

With that said I think donk leading this hand on this board is a sweet line to take vs. a lot of people and you can often go for 3-streets on a lot of run outs that don't come 2 overs, but it's better to find out if they're going to check back 8x/7x/6x to start donk leading, because if they do c-bet those hands c/r here will own them so much harder.

Buuut, as played if I decide to donk lead I'm 3-betting flop ~1 million % of the time, ESPECIALLY when we have no club ourselves because we're just going to get fucked up 30% of the time when one comes whether he has a flush or not. If it was a rainbow board it's probably closer to a donk/flat because it's a lot more likely they're raising you with something legit. With the FD it's just so unlikely you have any less than 40% vs. his get it in range (probably more like 45%), and there's going to be a lot of run outs that really make your hand difficult to play OOP. Just look at this run out, where every possible draw missed, no ace came (which improves one of the most likely flush draws he raises on the flop, he might flat K/Q high FDs some %), and we still have a really tough decision.

I'm not sure I agree with Scotty about c/f turn or not. It could very well be a c/f, but I don't think that his sizing is particularly strong, and I don't expect him to really use any other sizing. He went 43 into 67, which is maybe even a bit on the small side or about standard. If I had to read into his sizing at all, I'd think that he's maybe going 43 instead of like 52 to give himself a bit more fold equity on a river shove, and he might tend to go bigger with his value hands given how many cards kill his hand or his action on the river. I think that it's definitely reasonable to call turn/soul read river.

I really can't say what's best on the river as played, it's pretty tough with so little information, which is another reason why I'd rather 3-bet the flop than play 2 streets OOP in the dark. I'd be tempted to look him up because I think he still has a few club combo's that bricked that play like this, and he can turn some flop combo draws into bluffs, not to mention stuff like K4s/A4s that he might do this with, etc. I just feel like the Q and J are bricks but it's a decent run out for him to 3-barrel, and I kind of doubt he goes to town like this with many better 1 pairs for value, and there's a lot of stuff he'd raise for value on the flop that slows down on the turn and/or river. Not to mention people just love spazzing vs. donk bets.

compuease

You guys read way too much into this guys thought process. He has 2 spinners in front of him, much like I do, one to raise, fold, or call and one to bet a certain % of the pot... No way you get a pattern from me, (err him) then...

betrthanphil

I really really like donk betting these boards though, even more so vs a wide range like the button has here. I dont really like 3 betting flop getting it in because I feel I still have room to out play him if he has a better hand. I was planning on repping the flush if it came as I didnt think he had that to start, but the shove on river was just so weird to me, it got me to tank and think for so long. Im still not convinced whether folding or calling is good here. Im so in the middle it hurts my brain lol. Just the q, j runout was not good for him to shove here I think, that there has to be more bluffs in his range than value. I could be wrong...

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