I agree with the C/R, though can see the point for the C/C as well.
Hands we are behind (that make sense with the action as given) include:
JT, T8, 44's, 97, Q9, 88
Hands that are likely calling a 1-bet (because we C/C),
Some 4 outers are calling (Qx 7x), hands like KJ, QJ, KT, QT, A8, K8 are also likely calling, plus all the hands below that would call a raise
I guess my question is, by checking/calling the turn, how many hands that have hit a piece of the board will be sticking around and calling a single bet to see the river, which could beat us on the river (hands like A8/K8/Q8 or something, that hit a bigger 2 pair on the end, or 4 outer) because we've allowed them to stick around and see a card for 1 bet. I don't know the answer to that question but have seen it enough at the 2/5 tables to know there is a % of people.
Hands that may call a c/r but we are currently ahead of include:
AT, AJ, A4, KQ, pretty much 9x (chase that 8 outer, it is 2/5 limit after all)
While a 5.5 bb pot is not a monster, neither is our hand. It's decent, has some limited opportunities to improve but hands that call the turn that we beat are pretty obvious and we can tell pretty quickly if the river helps them. We also don't know how many other previous callers will call 2 bets cold.
What's folding here:
Pretty much every thing else.
--------------------------
So after all that, the really big question is what do we do when the player re-raises us (assuming everyone else folds), it really allows us to see where we are and know that we are likely behind to 4 clean outs (he's got the made straight, high or idiot end). It really helps define our hand.
---------------------------
I also ran some math about where we stand in both cases
quick pokerstove analysis against 1 other random hand I'm about a 61% favourite (mixing in the hands that we are losing to and would likely call a C/R in that situation):
I also see that against 7 other players with our 2 pair, we are a 33% dog to win the hand against 7 other random hands:
Board: Jd 8c 4h Td
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.643% 32.79% 00.86% 59906 1563.00 { Tc4s }
Hand 1: 09.362% 08.08% 01.29% 14755 2350.58 { random }
Hand 2: 09.487% 08.19% 01.30% 14960 2374.00 { random }
Hand 3: 09.477% 08.16% 01.32% 14906 2409.67 { random }
Hand 4: 09.443% 08.15% 01.29% 14891 2362.50 { random }
Hand 5: 09.515% 08.20% 01.31% 14984 2400.92 { random }
Hand 6: 09.596% 08.29% 01.31% 15143 2389.33 { random }
Hand 7: 09.475% 08.15% 01.33% 14880 2432.00 { random }
So to clarify: I do expect the pot that you are winning from the 7 handed hand is much larger, but you are approx. 50% as likely to win it. However, another point to be considered is you are only contributing 1/7 of the cash for the big pot and 1/2 the remaining bets for the smallish pot.
__________________
"...the monkey looks to make sure we are not playing limit at Brantford." - Redington
I did a similar analysis with a more defined range for the bettor. I gave him a range of hands that both would have let the flop check through and now have a made hand on the turn. I excluded overpairs and Jx top pairs, but included sets who might be making an idiotic slowplay.
Vs that range and 5 random hands our equity is 31% to the bettor's 25%, and 8.5% for everyone else.
Since we have an equity edge a raise is clearly correct, and we don't mind any number of callers. If we are 3bet we can assume we are behind, and possible c/fold some rivers.
Vs a passive player's 3bet on the turn, I think we could fold river Q's, 9's J's 8's. A case could be made for folding any non-T or 4 if we know the bettor well enough (wouldn't 3bet a pair+draw).
It's important to note that while us just calling may let other hands in, increasing the size of the pot, that is not guaranteed. Therefore we may simply be missing out on value by ending up hu on the river with the bettor, where we need to bet our boat and might not even get called, let alone raised, by many of the bettor's possible hands (that would certainly have called the turn c/r.)
It's important to note that while us just calling may let other hands in, increasing the size of the pot, that is not guaranteed. Therefore we may simply be missing out on value by ending up hu on the river with the bettor, where we need to bet our boat and might not even get called, let alone raised, by many of the bettor's possible hands (that would certainly have called the turn c/r.)
Valid point, though highly unlikely at the 2/5 limit game. Most players will spend 1 big bet on the turn to try to hit their draw on the river, so 6 players folding is almost certainly not going to happen. Though 1-2 folds is certainly possible.
__________________
"...the monkey looks to make sure we are not playing limit at Brantford." - Redington
Valid point, though highly unlikely at the 2/5 limit game. Most players will spend 1 big bet on the turn to try to hit their draw on the river, so 6 players folding is almost certainly not going to happen. Though 1-2 folds is certainly possible.
Well, 5 folds is possible too, because that's what happened to the OP
And since they're inclined to call, they may call with decent draws anyway, and each of their calls can then make us twice as much.
Since we have an equity edge a raise is clearly correct, and we don't mind any number of caller
"Since we have an equity edge, a raise is clearly correct as it will force everyone who is putting in negative equity to fold."
Make sense? Nope.
Having an equity edge means that we are trying to maximize the NUMBER of bets that are entering the pot. If you think that raising will do that, then you do it. It's not a 'cause and effect' relationship.
__________________
13Cards is the worst thing to happen to Canadian Poker ever.
"Since we have an equity edge, a raise is clearly correct as it will force everyone who is putting in negative equity to fold."
Make sense? Nope.
Having an equity edge means that we are trying to maximize the NUMBER of bets that are entering the pot. If you think that raising will do that, then you do it. It's not a 'cause and effect' relationship.
Yeah, I may not have been entirely clear there. I really meant that a raise cannot be wrong. There is a time that one would want overcalls instead of the raise. On this board, however, anyone calling is drawing live against our hand. Many of those hands will call two cold, either correctly or incorrectly. If you want 5 overcalls for one bet, don't you want 5 overcalls for 2 bets?
By wrong I mean it cannot be -ev given the ranges assigned to the opponents, which I believe are fair. It may not be the highest possible ev, of course that's what we're debating.
The correct play is to not play 2/5 at BCC where its a horrible game to start with. How do you fold preflop, your always getting odds. If you want to play bingo with 6 other players you can visit my grandma on Wednesdays with her friends and win a toaster or slippers.
The correct play is to not play 2/5 at BCC where its a horrible game to start with. How do you fold preflop, your always getting odds. If you want to play bingo with 6 other players you can visit my grandma on Wednesdays with her friends and win a toaster or slippers.
+1
although my first couple of months of B&M was at BCC 2/5 limit, before i realized the game is a crapshoot on steriods. save your money and maybe play some 5/10, even then, it's still a crapshoot.
second, fold pre. yes you're getting huge odds to call, but 10 4 off? if flop comes 10 high, then what? c/c? hope to hit a 4 on the turn? save your $3 to tip the waitresses or something. junk hands like that don't justify a SB complete. you're playing OOP with a hand that has almost no possibility to make the best hand in a multiway pot. but then again, everyone sitting at a 2/5 game has that same "pot odds" mentality, which is the reason the games are crapshoots
as for the actual hand, the turn is a definite c/r, c/c-ing is horrible. you're giving someone behind you with a bare 9 correct odds to call for their OESD.
as for the river, i like your lead, but you should've definite 3bet it. he doesn't stand to have a set, and if he had J4 or 84 he would've bet the flop so jam away.
although my first couple of months of B&M was at BCC 2/5 limit, before i realized the game is a crapshoot on steriods. save your money and maybe play some 5/10, even then, it's still a crapshoot.
second, fold pre. yes you're getting huge odds to call, but 10 4 off? if flop comes 10 high, then what? c/c? hope to hit a 4 on the turn? save your $3 to tip the waitresses or something. junk hands like that don't justify a SB complete. you're playing OOP with a hand that has almost no possibility to make the best hand in a multiway pot. but then again, everyone sitting at a 2/5 game has that same "pot odds" mentality, which is the reason the games are crapshoots
as for the actual hand, the turn is a definite c/r, c/c-ing is horrible. you're giving someone behind you with a bare 9 correct odds to call for their OESD.
as for the river, i like your lead, but you should've definite 3bet it. he doesn't stand to have a set, and if he had J4 or 84 he would've bet the flop so jam away.
Welcome to the forum,
Good starting post!
__________________
Not smarter than a grade 5 or Kristy Sea
I like the flop check. I HATE the turn call. That is a must check raise, imo.
This. Also, as played your hand is so so so underrepped. The only hands to worry about are JJ and 88. JJ raises preflop, in these games 88 may limp. So basically one hand to worry about, and it's a monster under the bed syndrome Other times he is raising various 2 pair/straight/A4/K4 type hands. Raise for value!
Poker Forum Canada offers bonuses for many online poker
sites. Party Poker Bonus
Code is the best Canadian poker bonus with Titan Poker Bonus Code being the second best and last but not least is PokerStars Marketing Code. Clearing the full bonus on each site will add a total of
$1,700 in bonus cash to your online bankroll.
WP sir
