Overpair on a rag flop facing aggression

BBC Z · Mar 10,2005, 01:13 PM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Jh, Jd.
2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, MP3 3-bets, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 4d, 9c, 2h (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, SB calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) Ts (4 players)
SB checks, Hero does what now??

No reads on MP3 but the other 2 are tracker listed as LPP fishies.

I think my first mistake was not 3 betting the flop <thanks Johnath>. I could have faced MP2 with calling 2 two and MP3's cap could have faced the SB with 2 cold...

As for the turn.. now I'm not sure what to do now, facing an opponent who has raised every time they've had the chance and 2 hangers on... I'm not feeling too great about my hand.. Would you lead out and then call MP3 down if/when he raises.. Can you really fold to his raise on the turn with an overpair?

Damn this game gets tough sometimes..

Hork42 · Mar 10,2005, 02:05 PM

3-bet the flop (or check-raise). It's unlikely anyone will fold given the size of the pot already, especially at 1/2 Party, but this is your best opportunity to get MP2 and SB to fold.

You have no read on MP3. Ok, fine. By just calling his flop raise you miss out on some cheap information.. if he caps, you can be fairly certain a typical player has you beat. The good news is you have a rag flop. If you're beat, it's likely by an overpair (possibly a set). Your two jack outs are still alive.

I would still check/call the turn and check/call the river (unless an ace comes, then consider a check/fold)

Chugs · Mar 10,2005, 02:18 PM

Tough spot four people in the pot and everone is willing to put money in the pot, including a SB who called 2.5 cold from the SB and has called two more cold on the turn. He may be a total fish but he may have also connected with a piece of this rag pot.

I've folded in spots like this but generally i agree that three betting the flop is really what you needed to do. The odds are it would have given you enough information.

On the turn i think i check, every attempt on your part to take the lead in the hand (pre-flop and flop), has been met by MP3 pounding back again.

Since the board has only a really small straight draw, and no other obvious draws that people whould have called bets on the flop, i check and see how things develop before they get back to me. You've invested 2.5 BB into this pot, and will have to put in 2BB at least by the river. The only thing going for you is that except for MP3 no one is raising or in other ways showing agression.

Johnath · Mar 10,2005, 02:31 PM

Well I already gave you my opinions offline, but to re-iterate:

I think 3-betting the flop is automatic, but I secretly confess that I can see myself calling down the raise like you did here. Mostly I think the 3bet is correct for exactly the reasons you have already stated. The 3-bet does help push out the hangers-on (I know how this hand ended, and I also know it doesn't matter, but I don't suppose you got to see their hands?) and it gives you some absolutely crucial information.

If he doesn't cap the flop I think you keep on pushing it - sure he could be trapping you but Miller's right when he says, to paraphrase, "The conventional wisdom to assume a tight table until they prove otherwise is too expensive. Better to assume a loose table since it probably is, and tighten up only when they force you to." Basically don't give him too much credit, he could still running off the "fold equity" of being last raiser preflop.

The pot is getting pretty big, especially if you 3-bet , he caps, and the hangers-on stick around, I think you might be forced to check/call to the river.

Basically this is a great flop and turn for your hand - and in a four way pot with 2 of the players seemingly happy to come along for the ride no matter how expensive, I think your pot equity is well over 25%. The downside is that this is a great flop and turn for KK too

Wouldn't a river J be just swell?

Hork42 · Mar 10,2005, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnath

Wouldn't a river J be just swell?

Not if 'FishA' is holding 78.

ol-stone-face · Mar 10,2005, 05:27 PM

I'm surprised you didn't cap preflop and three bet the flop too, especially with the SB and MP2 calling everything.
I agree you can't feel too good about a pair of jacks but it is still an overpair against two fishy types and an unknown. Check call and hope the callers don't start raising after the inevitable A hits the river.
Don't think you can bail on this pot now.

BBC Z · Mar 11,2005, 10:58 AM

I agree with whate everyone said.. Anyway, heres the big finish.. I decided to cower and call him down.

Turn: (10.50 BB) Ts (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, SB calls, Hero calls, MP2 folds.

River: (13.50 BB) 8c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

Results below:
Hero has Jh Jd (one pair, jacks).
MP3 has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: MP3 wins 15.50 BB.

ol-stone-face · Mar 11,2005, 12:21 PM

So had you reraised and MP3 capped on the flop would you have just check called anyway right to the end? The pot would have been huge if SB and MP2 followed along all the way.
I hate these hands as they seem to bleed more chips from me then anything.

ScottyZ · Mar 11,2005, 12:35 PM

I think I would have played it exactly the same. Specifically, I like just calling both the pre-flop 3-bet, and the flop raise. Capping the pre-flop action is a reasonably close alternative, but I strongly prefer your flop play over 3-betting it. And I think that betting out yourself on the flop is clearly correct. MP3 may still be sitting on overcards at this point.

Not raising in each case is an acknowledgement that there is a reasonable chance that your hand is no good. But there's a reasonable chance that it is good too, so folding seems a little too drastic of a reaction. Slowing down and just calling it down makes a lot of sense here.

Folding on the turn is an arguable alternative, but I think the fact MP3 was an unknown to you at the time swings this into a call. I would have to know my opponent quite well here to be able to lay this one down at this point.

On the river, you are basically hoping that MP3 was overplaying a busted out AK. With the river not being an overcard, a call here is pretty easy with little chance of the pot getting jammed, and a big pot to lose if you're wrong.

ScottyZ

BBC Z · Mar 11,2005, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ol-stone-face

So had you reraised and MP3 capped on the flop would you have just check called anyway right to the end? The pot would have been huge if SB and MP2 followed along all the way.
I hate these hands as they seem to bleed more chips from me then anything.

If I was heads up with MP3, I wouldn't have 3 bet him because I already know I'm not throwing this hand away, so him capping doesn't give me any useful information. It's the inclusion of the two other loose passives that makes capping the better play. Calling is their biggest leak and they usually get suckered into calling multiple bets after calling the first. Also, most passives can't wait to bet big hands and will reveal strength early in a hand..

In hind sight (this hand occured early in the session), it turns out MP3 was an LPP in which the 3 bet preflop should have told me he's got AK, JJ+ and his flop raise tells me I'm beat.