Location: Milton, poker capital of the world.. after Wloo that is.
Posts: 4,276
You gotta push... Worst case you are like 57-43 against 1 player, and that's is he's double suited (not your suit) and 4 card connectors. Against big stack likely a lot better... And am I right the way I read this, you're in the BB with 1000 of your 2400 in the pot? And 2 away from the seat? Maybe if you're only 1 away you can fold and hope SB takes the pusher out but not here...
Push and pray...
AAxx is not the nuts in a 3 handed pot. If you happen to be against another AAxx and a rundown hand often times the equity is 40 30 30 give or take in favor of the rundown hand.
That is why I said if the stacks were deep (ie: he was a big stack and the other two who went all in were big stacks) that this would be a very viable folds.
I totally understand the point being made that if only one pot needs to be won then a HU one is better than this 3 way even if against semi random hands, but the reality is that if you fold and then win an all in that will not be a guarantee that you will get the ticket easily.
Win this 3 way and your odds go up a ton.
This seems a lot more a stack dynamic issue that forces an uncomfortable play. Not much more. The AA is the nuts point as a reason for playing it as if it was AA in no limit is kind of amusing.
AAxx is not the nuts in a 3 handed pot. If you happen to be against another AAxx and a rundown hand often times the equity is 40 30 30 give or take in favor of the rundown hand.
That is why I said if the stacks were deep (ie: he was a big stack and the other two who went all in were big stacks) that this would be a very viable folds.
I totally understand the point being made that if only one pot needs to be won then a HU one is better than this 3 way even if against semi random hands, but the reality is that if you fold and then win an all in that will not be a guarantee that you will get the ticket easily.
Win this 3 way and your odds go up a ton.
This seems a lot more a stack dynamic issue that forces an uncomfortable play. Not much more. The AA is the nuts point as a reason for playing it as if it was AA in no limit is kind of amusing.
The thought of laying it down is kind of amusing.
No need to be weak with AA.... unreal.
poker is a game of gambling. roll the fucking dice.
AAxx is not the nuts in a 3 handed pot. If you happen to be against another AAxx and a rundown hand often times the equity is 40 30 30 give or take in favor of the rundown hand.
That is why I said if the stacks were deep (ie: he was a big stack and the other two who went all in were big stacks) that this would be a very viable folds.
If stacks were deep this is a raise not a fold. Against a late pos raiser and and SB call im raising 100% of the time. In fact I think the only bad thing you could do if stacks were deep is fold. Calling is also terrible. You most definetely have the best hand, so why fold?
With the diamond flush possibilities and straight cards, this is a shove.
AAJ10 would be an easy shove, but given the equity your hand has and, if either player is playing a rundown like 78910, you have some blockers in the 78.
If stacks were deep this is a raise not a fold. Against a late pos raiser and and SB call im raising 100% of the time. In fact I think the only bad thing you could do if stacks were deep is fold. Calling is also terrible. You most definetely have the best hand, so why fold?
This is a strange conversation to be honest because I have no idea if some of you even know how the odds in Omaha work.
In this case this is a shove because of the stack sizes but the odds are he will only have 35-40% equity with his hand even thoughit is an AA hand. In fact, bad AAxx hands could be as low as 20-25% equity in 3 ways when up against anohther AAxx hand and a nice double suited rundown hands as well.
Thus, if you have an AAxx hand in this satellite with a relatively LARGE stack and two other relatively LARGE stacks are effectively all in, it is an easy fold because your equity will only be in the 35-40% range and if you have a relatively LARGE stack the odds are you will win a seat anyway, so you are risking a relatively safe stack because you think you have the "best hand" or because poker is a gambling game or whatever silliness that other guy said.
Poker is about winning money, so in this case the OPs stack was small, so the shove was the opportunity for him to win the 1 all in he needed to win to obtain a relatively safe stack.
Those thinking this is an easy shove regardless of stacks, the NL equivalent would be the following
You are dealt AhKs and the other two guys have hands like 9d9s and QcJc
This is a strange conversation to be honest because I have no idea if some of you even know how the odds in Omaha work.
In this case this is a shove because of the stack sizes but the odds are he will only have 35-40% equity with his hand even thoughit is an AA hand. In fact, bad AAxx hands could be as low as 20-25% equity in 3 ways when up against anohther AAxx hand and a nice double suited rundown hands as well.
Thus, if you have an AAxx hand in this satellite with a relatively LARGE stack and two other relatively LARGE stacks are effectively all in, it is an easy fold because your equity will only be in the 35-40% range and if you have a relatively LARGE stack the odds are you will win a seat anyway, so you are risking a relatively safe stack because you think you have the "best hand" or because poker is a gambling game or whatever silliness that other guy said.
Poker is about winning money, so in this case the OPs stack was small, so the shove was the opportunity for him to win the 1 all in he needed to win to obtain a relatively safe stack.
Those thinking this is an easy shove regardless of stacks, the NL equivalent would be the following
You are dealt AhKs and the other two guys have hands like 9d9s and QcJc
They are both all in, what do you do?
Great post Monty.....but what would your final decision be?.....fold?
I will make some assumptions (which I will explain) to make the math simpler….
The main point I will try to prove is that the math says to call, so where the numbers need to be fudged, I will fudge AWAY from that hypothesis.
If we fold at this point, I would estimate that the small stack will be ahead about an average of 60/40
If the small stack wins, then I would give our chances of winning each prize at 10% for a 216, 15% for a 75, and 75% at a $24. (We are extraemely short, and everyone else will be waiting for us to bust).
If the large stack wins, then I would give our chances of winning each prize at 20% for a 216, and 80% for a 75.
Given all of these values, our equity when we fold is $71.79
If we call, then there are 4 scenarios that can play out:
We win – and come close to tripling up. In this case we will have about the average in chips. In this case I will use the case that we will have an equity of (216*9 + 75)/10 or $201.90. This is probably low, but as I said I will move away from the true amounts to make the math simpler.
We lose to the small stack, but beat the big stack. In this case I will use the smallest amount we could win (we still do have 1000 chips left, but using the smallest amount we could win gives us the worst odds if we play) - $24
We lose to the big stack, but the small stack does also. In this case we will win 10th place - $75.
We lose to the small stack, and the big stack wins the side pot. In that case we win 11th place money - $24
(I know that ties can happen, but we will ignore tham for math simplicity).
If we assign our winning percentage as x, then will will assign the winning percentage of the small stack to be 0.6 * (1-x), and the winning percentage of the big stck to be 0.4 * (1-x)
The break even percentage for x is 17.4% (making the small stack a 49.6% chance to win, and the big stack a 33% chance to win).
We would win the pot 17.4% of the time (17.4% * 216.9 = 35.13)
We will lose to the small stack, but beat the big stack 17.1% of the time (17.1% * 24 = 4.10)
We will lose to the big stack, along with the small stack 33.04% of the time (33.04% * 75 = 24.78)
We will lose to the small stack, and the big stack 32.46% of the time (32.45% * 24 = 7.79)
35.13 + 4.10 + 24.78 + 7.79 = 71.80
Obviously, with aces in our hands, our winning percentage is a heck of a lot better than 17.4%. If we go up to 40% which is more realistic, then our equity is $107.40. It would be a $35.60 mistake to fold – over half the value that we put into the tournament!!
We are putting in to much of our stack (41.7%), and we have to put in a large amound of our already diminished stack on the next hand if we fold (35.7%) for anything but a shove to be correct with pretty well any hand. It is hard to be so dominated that we don’t have a 17.4% chance of winning – especially with aces in our hand!
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One of us hunts donkeys...
The other one plays one for a living.
I agree with Monteroy that if both of our stacks are deep, then raising is not necessarily the right option. This is because of the dynamics of a satellite that awards 9 equal top prizes.
It is because our stack in very low in the OP that folding is nowhere close to the right decision.
If the stacks are deep then the question is closer to this:
You are in a NLHE satellite where 9 people get $500, and 10th and below get 0. There are 10 players left in the tourney. One player goes all in, and another player with an equal stack calls. You look at your cards and see AA. What do you do?
(Hint: If you do anything but muck your aces, you should have your poker license revoked!)
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One of us hunts donkeys...
The other one plays one for a living.
I agree with Monteroy that if both of our stacks are deep, then raising is not necessarily the right option. This is because of the dynamics of a satellite that awards 9 equal top prizes.
It is because our stack in very low in the OP that folding is nowhere close to the right decision.
If the stacks are deep then the question is closer to this:
You are in a NLHE satellite where 9 people get $500, and 10th and below get 0. There are 10 players left in the tourney. One player goes all in, and another player with an equal stack calls. You look at your cards and see AA. What do you do?
(Hint: If you do anything but muck your aces, you should have your poker license revoked!)
Sorry I misunderstood montey's post. IN THIS EXACT SPOT where everyone is deep EXCEPT villian who shoves, SB calls, and we are 2 away from a ticket then yes I would say its a fold.
If EVERYONE is deeper (M>10) I raise Pot 100% of the time in this spot.
To answer your question, I call and check it down with 2nd villian.
. To answer your question, I call and check it down with 2nd villian.
You're putting in 1900 of your 2400 chips. Why would you not put the rest in when your hand is most likely the best between the 2 of you??
If you don't put the money in then, what do you do if the large stack puts you all in on a flop that you did not hit?? Remember, you will only have 500 back (that you have to put in as the small blind on the next hand) and the pot will be 6200.
The 500 means nothing to the big stack. They will most likely NOT just check it down if they catch anything that can beat an overpair, or catch anything at all for that matter.
__________________
One of us hunts donkeys...
The other one plays one for a living.
You're putting in 1900 of your 2400 chips. Why would you not put the rest in when your hand is most likely the best between the 2 of you??
If you don't put the money in then, what do you do if the large stack puts you all in on a flop that you did not hit?? Remember, you will only have 500 back (that you have to put in as the small blind on the next hand) and the pot will be 6200.
The 500 means nothing to the big stack. They will most likely NOT just check it down if they catch anything that can beat an overpair.
I actually did only call in this spot. Reasoning is quite simple.....SB is calling the shove 100%, so I didn't really have anything to gain by shoving.
I would prefer to check it down to leave myself another 'shot' if I lose, but if SB bets out, I'd snap call any flop....or turn.....evaluate river (as that would be the least likely air bet).
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