AQ debate part 500: vs TAG reg......

darbday · Nov 24,2011, 11:34 AM

Villain is a tag reg....running about 14/12 60%+ cbet.....all that.....

Hes a winning reg but meaning hes just winning not a 'very good reg' in my notes....so I have room to mess with him in general....

i can prob just barely get it in pre...actually vs his range im prob a dog. hes gonna show up with TT+ AQ+ and the odd time hands like 99 AJs KQs which he folds a to a shove....but honestly he really only has a value range here that he calls prob nearly 95%+ of the time.....

So I wonder if flatting and never folding and looking for any fold equity we can find is going to be better.....

Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 75/150 Blinds, 9 Players

SB: 1,651
BB: 1,050
UTG: 3,275
UTG+1: 2,060
UTG+2: 1,595
MP1: 2,555
JodaB. (MP2): 2,329
CO: 906
BTN: 1,285

Pre-Flop: (225) Q

A

dealt to JodaB. (MP2)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 450, 2 folds, JodaB. calls 450, 4 folds

Flop: (1,125) 7

T

K

(2 Players)
UTG+1 bets 555, JodaB. raises to 1,879 and is All-In

jdAA88 · Nov 24,2011, 11:42 AM

I don't like this at all, if this guy's a reg there's no way he's folding after his cbet and obv I understand what you're saying but with these stacks, flatting here is just bad, imo it's still just a shove or fold pre.

djgolfcan · Nov 24,2011, 11:48 AM

He just put in half his stack after c-betting the flop, he is never folding to your shove. Unless you have specific notes. You have 15BBs, just get it in preflop.

darbday · Nov 24,2011, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdAA88

I don't like this at all, if this guy's a reg there's no way he's folding after his cbet and obv I understand what you're saying but with these stacks, flatting here is just bad, imo it's still just a shove or fold pre.

i guess it depends on his post flop tendencies...but if we do this on the flop its not really all that different than shoving pre....

but here on this flop i think most regs thinks they won't fold here but I know that if he has aq here he will fold....maybe tt jj etc will fold as well. It incorrect for them to do it kinda but i think i can catch them in their cbetting tracks before they realize I flatted short pre and re raised a k high flop to there tag reg image....

Richard~ · Nov 24,2011, 01:28 PM

Not buying it, no half decent player folds anything you don't alreaday have beat

Edit: either way your FE is way better pre. also if he's tight, it's an easy fold pre vs a 3x

HammerDad · Nov 24,2011, 02:54 PM

Meh, IMO shove or fold pre.

As played, with the Ac, this could be a shove. But we are likely to have 0 fold equity as villain is getting 3 or 4-1 to call here and probably isn't like to fold TP, jj or any ten here if they are half decent or thinking.....but vs A10, jj or 99 we still have a fair number of outs. It is high variance, and I am sure there are times we will be called and be ahead of hands like AJ.

Unless villain has a hand like 1010 or 99, I am fine with this. Villain may even call with AJ or AQ here....

Vekked · Nov 24,2011, 04:19 PM

IMO Shove or shove pre. We have 15BB, the only way it's not +EV is if he's opening 5% or something, which only the tightest players on the fact of the internet do, and most people aren't that disciplined. I can't remember the last time I folded AQ to an open when I was <20BB.

As played definitely shove flop, he only needs to fold 20% of the time, even if he only folds worse hands he probably has worse >20% of the time, and if he calls worse hands then it just makes our situation better.

Darb - in general don't flat >10% of your stack often at all. If he's too tight to shove on with 15BB he's going to be too tight to flat against too. If you only think he's opening AQ/TT+ then why are we flatting AQ? Sklansky would be pissed. If he's opening wider than that, it'll be +EV to jam. You flatted almost 20% of your stack in this spot. Never flat 20% of your stack (there might be spots to do it, but considering the spot you chose this hand, consider it a rule for the time being).

Cerberus · Nov 24,2011, 04:20 PM

Maybe I'm misreading this, but if anyone with 1010 folds on that flop, they're braindead.

darbday · Nov 24,2011, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vekked

IMO Shove or shove pre. We have 15BB, the only way it's not +EV is if he's opening 5% or something, which only the tightest players on the fact of the internet do, and most people aren't that disciplined. I can't remember the last time I folded AQ to an open when I was <20BB.

As played definitely shove flop, he only needs to fold 20% of the time, even if he only folds worse hands he probably has worse >20% of the time, and if he calls worse hands then it just makes our situation better.

Darb - in general don't flat >10% of your stack often at all. If he's too tight to shove on with 15BB he's going to be too tight to flat against too. If you only think he's opening AQ/TT+ then why are we flatting AQ? Sklansky would be pissed. If he's opening wider than that, it'll be +EV to jam. You flatted almost 20% of your stack in this spot. Never flat 20% of your stack (there might be spots to do it, but considering the spot you chose this hand, consider it a rule for the time being).

Just making sure we understand im getting it in post flop regardless of the board though. Im just thinking tag reg vs tag reg, no one gains when he calls with his entire range and we each shove value hands at each other...

so where he will never fold pre he may once in a while, because of my awkward flat, end up bet folding on a board that we missed....

even though in general he should know better....im thinking its possible for him to cbet fold on a kxx board....thinking hes never good and i always have ak kk aa

edit: and no i don't really ever flat like this....just was experimenting with a thought.....

darbday · Nov 24,2011, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cerberus

Maybe I'm misreading this, but if anyone with 1010 folds on that flop, they're braindead.

no no of course no...i don't mean sets just under pairs...and he prob doesn't cbet sets as much

Vekked · Nov 24,2011, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darbday

Just making sure we understand im getting it in post flop regardless of the board though. Im just thinking tag reg vs tag reg, no one gains when he calls with his entire range and we each shove value hands at each other...

You do gain if he calls with his entire range because it will contain worse hands... Obviously you gain by shoving value hands darb. Flatting to shove any flop is FPS. You shouldn't ACTUALLY be shoving any flop, and you're going to end up making mistakes by shoving ones you should and not shoving ones you should. You have to be very good to be able to do this kind of play. You need to know his range, know roughly how much equity you have vs. it on every flop, and shove every time you have >x% equity and fold when you don't. I'm assuming you don't know this, I sure don't.

Quote:

so where he will never fold pre he may once in a while, because of my awkward flat, end up bet folding on a board that we missed....

Either his range is loose enough that he'll fold enough to call worse pre, or it's tight enough that you're not going to show a profit shoving flops because he's going to have it too much. I see what you're getting at, and there may be situations in which flatting and shoving pre show a profit, but flatting is slightly more. You need to do a ton of math to figure out where those situations are, though. I don't think many situations exist with short-stacks that shoving doesn't show a profit but flatting does though.

Quote:

even though in general he should know better....im thinking its possible for him to cbet fold on a kxx board....thinking hes never good and i always have ak kk aa

I think it's a bit optimistic to think you have much fold equity, or he's going to put you on monsters when you flat. IF you could be confident enough that this was the case, AQo is probably not one of the hands you want to be flatting anyways, something that flops more equity vs. his value range that he will never fold out is what you would want to be flatting.

Wetts1012 · Nov 24,2011, 05:39 PM

Too much thinking ITT.

darbday · Nov 24,2011, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vekked

You do gain if he calls with his entire range because it will contain worse hands... Obviously you gain by shoving value hands darb.

I mean that we play 100 games a day together... so if we both play std. tag then no one is gaining vs. each other....

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vekked

You have to be very good to be able to do this kind of play. You need to know his range, know roughly how much equity you have vs. it on every flop, and shove every time you have >x% equity and fold when you don't.

I heard this most

thx.

betrthanphil · Nov 24,2011, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdAA88

I don't like this at all, if this guy's a reg there's no way he's folding after his cbet and obv I understand what you're saying but with these stacks, flatting here is just bad, imo it's ALWAYS a shove.

fyp

Richard~ · Nov 24,2011, 07:40 PM

not buying that it's always a shove. You can pick up pretty good reads from betsizing at this level of play. It's only a shove if he opens A10 and KQ or something like this. Not sure about the math right now