Quote:
Originally Posted by darbday  the defense i read about is not on multiway flop and not with 10bbs....but if i flop q high im good most of the time here, other players are very weak.
the play im experimenting from is calling 1 raiser from the bb when getting stellar odds which i know alot of pros will call with atc, let alone suited.
here im getting 6 to one or something.....but im not arguing its a call , just was experimenting. |
Yea it's a leak. If you have a really amazing drawing hand but not a ton of fold equity on a shove you can sometimes flat stuff like 87s/T9s/QJs and the like, or pairs if you're getting set-mining odds between the pot and stack depth, but hands like suited broadway-rag just don't flop enough equity ever.
You might be good most of the time if you flop a Q, but think about it this way. You flop a Q roughly 18% of the time. Your Q is top pair about 12% of the time. On a Q73 rainbow flop (probably the best flop for your hand) vs. 2 pretty loose opponents you have around 50% equity.
Board: Qh 7d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0:
52.913% 52.39% 00.52% 69115760 689312.00 { Q2s }
Hand 1: 25.007% 24.51% 00.50% 32335884 654712.00 { 22+, A8s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 22.080% 21.63% 00.45% 28536210 592810.00 { AA, TT-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
This equity goes down significantly vs. tighter villains:
Board: Qh 7d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0:
43.360% 42.99% 00.37% 12456681 107094.00 { Q2s }
Hand 1: 29.533% 28.87% 00.67% 8364218 193102.00 { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 27.107% 26.47% 00.64% 7669589 184780.00 { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+ }
That's if you got it in on the flop vs. their entire range. Now when you get it it in, it's only going to be against a range that mostly improves on the flop:
Board: Qh 7d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0:
37.401% 36.08% 01.32% 69650 2552.00 { Q2s }
Hand 1: 62.599% 61.28% 01.32% 118296 2552.00 { 99+, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }
Or vs. tighter villains:
Board: Qh 7d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0:
16.689% 14.86% 01.83% 20744 2552.00 { Q2s }
Hand 1: 83.311% 81.48% 01.83% 113742 2552.00 { QQ+, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }
Vs. 2 opponents getting it in vs. you with 8% of hands, you're gonna get called with around 15% of hands. If they're playing no more than 30% of hands, you're getting it in 50% of the time. With no more than 37% equity. So if this flop comes 100% of the time, and you get it in and get folds 50% of the time you win around 11250 chips on average (22500 in the pot x .5). When you get it in, get called, and win 37% of the remaining 50% of the time you win about 11932 chips on average. When you get it in and lose 63% of the remaining 50% of the time you lose about 20317 chips on average. 11250 + 11932 - 20317 = +2865 chips on average (or just less than 1.5BB) in the most optimal scenario. Assume that this is the flop every time you hit a Q, and every time you don't you fold, you loose 2000 chips 82% of the time, so -1640. That brings you down to 1225 chips profit.
So you make ~1225 chips assuming: every time you flop a Q, it's a Q73 rainbow board, you get folds half the time, and the other half of the time you get it in you have 37% equity and only 1 person calls your shove. Super unrealistic.
Re: a lot of pro's defending ATC... a lot of pro's are just bad/have terrible leaks in some spots.
Disclaimer: my numbers might be off cuz I didn't double check everything, but it seems roughly right given all the assumptions, someone can feel free to correct me, but I'm just showing how Q2s isn't profitable in this spot.
