JJ spot

Sharantyr · Jan 25,2012, 04:20 PM

PokerStars Hand #74475480087: Tournament #557010583, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (40/80) - 2012/01/25 16:34:22 ET
Table '557010583 23' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: fullmmm (7021 in chips)
Seat 2: mundking (1784 in chips)
Seat 3: Trible_XXX_4 (2365 in chips)
Seat 4: Luiz Cilenti (2475 in chips)
Seat 5: tjeu76 (2840 in chips)
Seat 6: rjw1985 (4925 in chips)
Seat 7: Mikevosges (4200 in chips)
Seat 8: swansfc_CJ (1744 in chips)
Seat 9: Sharantyr (6880 in chips)
swansfc_CJ: posts small blind 40
Sharantyr: posts big blind 80
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sharantyr [Jd Jc]
fullmmm: raises 320 to 400
mundking: raises 1384 to 1784 and is all-in
Trible_XXX_4: folds
Luiz Cilenti: folds
tjeu76: calls 1784
rjw1985: folds
Mikevosges: folds
swansfc_CJ: folds
Sharantyr: ??

This might be an easy one but I was torn..

mundking had been shipping a lot ofcoure, but with the call ahead of me and having the utg raiser left to act....well, what do you do here? I really don't think calling is ever good..ship or fold and why?

Hobbes · Jan 25,2012, 04:23 PM

I ship.
It looks like a squeeze (and you have a hand, ask sstar about that) and the only one I am really concerned about stack wise is the original raiser.

Any read on UTG raiser?

Hellmuth's Mole · Jan 25,2012, 04:33 PM

I fold. JJ is too vulnerable against 3 hands with a long way to go in this tourny. Ship if you believe UTG is folding.

I would have insta shipped in the past, but I think I'm getting better. Fold and look away imo.

jdAA88 · Jan 25,2012, 04:45 PM

not folding here, jamming, gl

Sharantyr · Jan 25,2012, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hobbes

I ship.
It looks like a squeeze (and you have a hand, ask sstar about that) and the only one I am really concerned about stack wise is the original raiser.

Any read on UTG raiser?

He hadn't been at the table long. Late reg'd, but was quite aggro right off the bat. He was already aipf atleast twice, post flop a couple times as well.

darbday · Jan 25,2012, 04:53 PM

ship it. We know we would ship qq+. So if we think we have fold equity JJ becomes an easy ship and shipping looks really strong to utg. He might fold aq ak and qq. I think you can reason a fold but if I can reason a shove then id prob do it. Also I think theres a greater chance 2 people have ak here

Hellmuth's Mole · Jan 25,2012, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darbday

ship it. We know we would ship qq+. So if we think we have fold equity JJ becomes an easy ship and shipping looks really strong to utg. He might fold aq ak and qq. I think you can reason a fold but if I can reason a shove then id prob do it. Also I think theres a greater chance 2 people have ak here

To me it really only matters what UTG has and whether he will play. If you have a solid read as agg then ship. 25% of those cards in the deck are kryptonite to you though.

darbday · Jan 25,2012, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hellmuth's Mole

To me it really only matters what UTG has and whether he will play. If you have a solid read as agg then ship. 25% of those cards in the deck are kryptonite to you though.

yup but we can't exactly know so we figure he calls aa kk for sure usually ak qq and sometimes folds jj and tt... and we expect him to fold a certain extra unknown amount

that dead money makes it profitable to ship even if sometimes we are snapped by aces (maybe).

Hellmuth's Mole · Jan 25,2012, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darbday

yup but we can't exactly know so we figure he calls aa kk for sure usually ak qq and sometimes folds jj and tt... and we expect him to fold a certain extra unknown amount

that dead money makes it profitable to ship even if sometimes we are snapped by aces (maybe).

Not exactly, we KNOW he calls with anything that beats us outright. And if he's aggy he may very well call all hands we are racing (AQ,AK, KQ). I will wait for a better spot, but again only because I don't sufficiently know his range this early.

trigs · Jan 25,2012, 05:12 PM

fold but i'm nitty.

djgolfcan · Jan 25,2012, 05:14 PM

The hand I am concern about is the flat pre-flop call of tjeu76 - he has just committed more than half his chips pre-flop, there is no way he is folding after the flop.

So its gone, raise (early position), re-raise all in, call and now we have to act and there is still the initial raiser to decide.

I puke and fold. Its a long, long tourney and if these really are spewtards, we'll find better spots than this.

kwsteve · Jan 25,2012, 05:19 PM

Crying fold.

Sharantyr · Jan 25,2012, 05:50 PM

I really don't think utg is folding, if only based on a gut feeling and the few hands he had been in.

One example:

PokerStars Hand #74474583157: Tournament #557010583, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (30/60) - 2012/01/25 16:19:10 ET
Table '557010583 23' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: fullmmm (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: mundking (747 in chips)
Seat 3: Trible_XXX_4 (3015 in chips)
Seat 4: Luiz Cilenti (2685 in chips)
Seat 5: Jully16 (2400 in chips)
Seat 6: rjw1985 (5285 in chips)
Seat 7: nightsub1893 (3010 in chips)
Seat 8: swansfc_CJ (2524 in chips)
Seat 9: Sharantyr (4739 in chips)
swansfc_CJ: posts small blind 30
Sharantyr: posts big blind 60
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sharantyr [2d 7d]
fullmmm: raises 229 to 289
mundking: folds
Trible_XXX_4: folds
Luiz Cilenti: folds
Jully16: calls 289
rjw1985: folds
nightsub1893: raises 2721 to 3010 and is all-in
swansfc_CJ: folds
Sharantyr: folds
fullmmm: calls 2711 and is all-in
Jully16: folds
Uncalled bet (10) returned to nightsub1893
*** FLOP *** [4d 6d 5d]
*** TURN *** [4d 6d 5d] [Ts]
*** RIVER *** [4d 6d 5d Ts] [Jd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
fullmmm: shows [9d 8d] (a flush, Jack high)
nightsub1893: shows [As Kh] (high card Ace)
fullmmm collected 6379 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6379 | Rake 0
Board [4d 6d 5d Ts Jd]
Seat 1: fullmmm showed [9d 8d] and won (6379) with a flush, Jack high
Seat 2: mundking folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Trible_XXX_4 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Luiz Cilenti folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Jully16 folded before Flop
Seat 6: rjw1985 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: nightsub1893 (button) showed [As Kh] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 8: swansfc_CJ (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Sharantyr (big blind) folded before Flop

A5o/q8o/k10 were also in his range so far.

Villain 2 being all in does not bother me.

Villain 3 flat calling 2/3 of his stack is not going anywhere pre or post flop regardless.

My feeling here is that if I do beat utg the side pot is still not equal to the stack I have already, and as noted there is a long way to go.. If I ship and he folds, it is still half my stack I am flipping for vs V2 and V3. It is a monster pot if I am ahead and hold to be sure but...I think I would much rather be able to control the situation and make a play postflop which I don't think is possible here. I hope that makes some sense...

darbday · Jan 25,2012, 05:55 PM

knowing he might snap you as wide as 98s then its a clear jam i think

Hellmuth's Mole · Jan 25,2012, 06:03 PM

The more I think about it, is it right to completely dismiss flatting like MP?

Chances are great villian comes along but if he doesn't jam behind we can get a good feel for his strength. T high flop comes and break your wrists getting it in.