Nightly $55, 10 left, I have top pair, turn play?

jdAA88 · Dec 02,2011, 12:05 PM

Villain a Brazilian winning player and is basically running over the table but imo he's also running godly, haven't seem him caught bluffing and when it looks like he could be, he has the nuts or close to it when called down. Earlier on when we were 8handed at this table I opened JJ from MP, btn flatted, and he squeezed, I 4b, he timebanked for about 40 seconds and folded.

Another hand he CR'd me on 9KQss and I folded.

His stats are 36/30 w/ 14% 3b over 158 hands.

How would you play the turn? b/f, b/c/reevaluate riv?

I figured that he could be raising the turn with the Ad or Kd in his hand, or he checked back this flop with a FD trying to disguise his hand as most would obv cbet this flop with a FD.

On the river he timed-down from like 80 seconds all the way to 10 seconds before betting: imo when people bluff they usually bet a lot quicker rather than slower. I have 190k left on the river.

PokerStars Game #71472146051: Tournament #549011084, $50+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (3000/6000) - 2011/12/02 2:48:18 ET
Table '549011084 16' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: julesdAA (252631 in chips)
Seat 4: K1ng-Kawe (104184 in chips)
Seat 5: ricardolago (104935 in chips)
Seat 6: jeremaroto (642193 in chips)
Seat 7: Mataro (330932 in chips)
julesdAA: posts the ante 600
K1ng-Kawe: posts the ante 600
ricardolago: posts the ante 600
jeremaroto: posts the ante 600
Mataro: posts the ante 600
Mataro: posts small blind 3000
julesdAA: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to julesdAA [

]
K1ng-Kawe: folds
ricardolago: folds
jeremaroto: raises 8880 to 14880
Mataro: folds
julesdAA: calls 8880
*** FLOP *** [

]
julesdAA: checks
jeremaroto: checks
*** TURN *** [

] [

]
julesdAA: bets 19880
jeremaroto: raises 26786 to 46666
julesdAA: calls 26786
*** RIVER *** [

] [

]
julesdAA: checks
jeremaroto: bets 104400
K1ng-Kawe said, "bluff"
K1ng-Kawe said, "dont listen to me tho"
julesdAA: ?

HammerDad · Dec 02,2011, 12:15 PM

Fold pre and avoid these marginal situations.

I fold. Top pair meh kicker is rarely winning here.

jdAA88 · Dec 02,2011, 12:19 PM

Guess I should have titled this as turn and river play, but I'm definitely concerned about whether my turn call is bad or not.

HammerDad · Dec 02,2011, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdAA88

Guess I should have titled this as turn and river play, but I'm definitely concerned about whether my turn call is bad or not.

Given the number of draws out that he could on, it probably isn't that bad. I could see 3betting the turn to like 80k if you think he as some sort of combo draw like Ad6x or something.

Villain could be bluffing, but some of his bluffs (like over pairs and 2 pair) still beat us.

Spots like this is the reason why I fold pre. Also, given the stacks of the other players, I want to try and avoid getting into OOP battles with the big stack with marginal holdings.

djgolfcan · Dec 02,2011, 12:34 PM

From your impression of villain, I fold to his raise on the turn. He hasn't shown any bluffs and has always had it, what makes you think he is bluffing now ?

That turn card brings flushes and straights in, plus two pairs, etc.. Your nine is no longer good.

betrthanphil · Dec 02,2011, 01:01 PM

umm i 3bet prob 100% of the time pre, then this hand is played pretty easy from there, cbet flop get it in, or if he flats flop check jam turn on him. As played fold river, call on turn is ok i think but his range is so wide that 68 is in there j10 with a diamond yada yada lol. Think hes more likely to check back the flop with some sort of weaker draw, only thing we are beating is AK or AQ with ad i think.

jdAA88 · Dec 02,2011, 01:07 PM

alright thanks

darbday · Dec 02,2011, 09:11 PM

i think you need to lead the river as a blocking bet...even if hes extra lag he can't really bluff raise you there....

and i don't think i would lead the turn as hes very likely to raise you with most of his range...and when he does you don't have so much equity to protect and call.....i would fold to that raise probably. plus the river won't be friendly when he'll barrel at anything

but against a loose aggressive winning player i think you can just check call all the way here and keep the pot small and expect to be ahead a lot.

but as he has the ability to show up with sets two pair flushes straight and over pairs prob a sure fold...

masterplan · Dec 03,2011, 08:15 AM

Based on all given information I would be almost certain you were beat there.
For some reason if I were in the situation I'd want to put him on a hand like 10's with a diamond, or maybe even 6's.
Unlike some previous posts, I do think it was correct to defend your big blind here, however leading out on the turn was a bit of a shaky play.
I think you would have been much better off checking for pot control, and in reality just try to get a bit more information out of the hand.

betrthanphil · Dec 03,2011, 08:42 AM

Id bet a lot of money he doesnt have 1010, who is gonna check back 1010 on the flop here? your crazy

blackmagicz · Dec 03,2011, 09:48 AM

In this instance if I am check the flop I also check the turn. The 5d just makes the board that much more nastier and with 1 pair no kicker I am not looking to play a big pot.

With that being said, his hand smells like some sort of combo pair/flush draw on the turn. Those min raises are "I want to see where you are at, but if you get it in, I will be calling so make sure you have it"

darbday · Dec 03,2011, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackmagicz

Those min raises are "I want to see where you are at, but if you get it in, I will be calling so make sure you have it"

i agree in most cases but here if hes a good lag reg ip then it could mean he will call or fold i think....

Richard~ · Dec 03,2011, 09:58 AM

I'd probably call river, I'd expect him to cbet diamonds and 86 810 cause it makes sense to do so. furthermore I wouldn't really expect him to give up after not cbetting

Edit: the mentality of many lag players seems to be "how can i get this guy to fold again and again" rather than "how can I extract think value from my image"

betrthanphil · Dec 03,2011, 10:00 AM

what hand are you putting him on to call, you cant just say im gonna call because i think im winning. In order to make good river calls you have to put your opponent on a hand that your beating. I think there are way more hands that are beating us that are in his range being played this way then ones we arent

darbday · Dec 03,2011, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by betrthanphil

what range are you putting him on to call, you cant just say im gonna call because i think im winning. In order to make good river calls you have to put your opponent on a range that your beating. I think there are way more hands that are beating us that are in his range being played this way then ones we arent