Richard~

I think he can jam light here enough of the time to make it a good 3 bet call

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~Games are lost, games are won you'll find the strength to carry on~

Vekked

You're right that the more top heavy a prize structure is, the closer to cEV your decisions become, but 40% of the field getting ~100% of the prizes isn't exactly top heavy. I did some quick calculations, pretty sure they're accurate but there's some chance I made a mistake because I rarely do ICM calcs like this, but this is what I found:

He needs to be shoving more than 66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo (9.5%) for us to call after we 3-bet as opposed to the 99+,AQ+ (5.1%) that makes it +cEV. 99+, AQ+ shows a slight profit in terms of chips, but we burn ~$800 by calling. I'm not positive of his shoving range here but I highly doubt he's 4-betting that wide without any dynamic.

Richard~

Interesting, playing vs players with contiuous ranges and ranges polarized between top of range and top of folding range is mathematically much harder than playing against a player who might shove 67s here just cause he feels we're light sometimes

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~Games are lost, games are won you'll find the strength to carry on~