darbday

seriously how often should i be hitting quads. i hit twice today, once for sure yesterday, twice the day before, i hit quads pretty much everyday, is that for real? this is a serious question because its weirding me out.....

compuease

evidence?

BuyinBank

Floor!! Seat change. I want his seat.

If you're hitting quads every day, you're way at the top of the luck bell curve.

Unless you're playing something like 5k hands/day I would think.

Let's try some math:

I believe these numbers are right: Texas Hold'em Poker Odds & Probabilities

So, if we just look at pocket pairs and flopping quads, you've got 16 to 1 odds (5.88%) of being dealt a poker pair and 407 to 1 odds of flopping quads (0.25%), you should flop quads with a pocket pair about once every 6900 hands (more often than I thought).

Add in flopping a set (7.5 to 1) and you should improve to quads about 4% of the time, so that's about once every 3600 hands.

With the other 94% of your hands, you have a 9799 to 1 chance of flopping quads, and a 73 to 1 chance of flopping trips with a 4% chance to improve. That's about once every 9200 hands for flopping them and once every 1739 for flopping trips and improving.

Anyone want to try putting those numbers together for me?

It's too early in the morning for my brain.

Richard~

Putting together? ^^'

How about 1/9200 + 1/1739 = 0,00068 or 0,68 promille judging from your numbers? Or maybe I'm just missing something :P

(that's basically once in every 1700 hands that you see flops turns and rivers with.

Anyway, it's probably the weighted 0,06 times P(quads with pocket pairs) + 0,94 imes P(quads with unpaired cards) where P(quads with pp) = P(flopping quads with pp) + P(turning or rivering quads with pp|flop trips)

pokerJAH

I hit quads every three months so I must be doing something wrong

BuyinBank

Yeah, I feel like I never hit quads anywhere near that often when I played full-time.

Those number only relate to hands where you see the flop (the two at flop ratios) and hands that go to the river (improving ratios).

If you include the percentage of hands you see the flop with and the percentage of hands that go to showdown, the actual number of times you have or see quads goes way, way down.

I'd say I was seeing quads on an average of once or twice a week back when I played about 1k hands/day.

I just took a random month of playing NL Cash Games in PT3 and got this:

Hands - 25k
Flop Seen - 15k
Times my hand made quads (doesn't specify flop/turn/river) - 21
Times I saw the flop with my hand - 17

Seems I made quads more often than I though. 21 times in 25k hands or once every 1190 hands. Selective memory I guess.

HVEEPOKER

I play a lot of live poker. I try to get down to Niagara every week or so. Even when my game has gone in the crapper like it has in the last 2 weeks.
I think in the last 4 yrs I have hit Quads 5 times. Usually trips or a boat.
I guess anything is possible if you are playing a lot of hands on the Interwebz.
I have also had 2 Royals. with 1 str8 flush. 1 royal happened 2 years ago at a home game the other at another home game maybe 4 yrs ago.

darbday

i could barely read your posts im soo floored, ive hit quads like 19 times in the last three months, it doesn't even phase me....i just type meh, i hit quads everyday in the chat box and people are like wow nh and im just like shut up.....


how do i sift through my hh to find them.......?

darbday

im sure you'll trust if i post the hands but is there a way for you to find them on the net or something.....i don't know how id find them but im serious about this and i don't really understand how i keep hitting quads.

compuease

Are you a bot? lol, seriously how many hands per week do you play? That is really an unbelievable amount of quads... Excuse us for being a little incredulous...

darbday

no man i know, and ive had this thought for months, that i hit quads to much.....think about it how can i have that though more than a couple times unless im hitting them, and yes i hit twice in one tourney and whereever the hand history is, the table commented on it, and i hit the day before and the day after. i play alot of hands but no more than a 100 or 200 tourneys a month.

and im not here to brag so its not like im lying i came to see if its really that weird...

jdAA88

mbn dude..

darbday

if you can put that in tourneys, then i can tell you if mine is the same. until i get my tracker software back i don't know many hands per day....

BuyinBank

Those numbers are from my PT3 playing full ring cash games. On PT3 if you go to the hands tab, then change the Display field from "Starting hands" to "Final Hands" you'll get a list.

I just checked a list of roughly 2,600 tourneys. 1,500 are 6max reg speeds, about 600 HU SNGs (turbos/super turbos mostly), about 200 6max 18man SNGs, and the rest an assortment of big MTTs, low buy-in rebuy MTTs, full ring SNGs, and others.

55.6k hands went to a flop and my holdings made quads 79 times.

So that puts us at quads every 703 flops in tournaments (not hands, as PT3 doesn't include hands that ended preflop in these stats obviously). This includes all hands where you fold preflop and would have made quads.

Maybe I'm running hot too?

darbday

k gonna set up a stars account today i think and get some tracker software as a bonus ...might be hem if i can do it though but im sure i can do it there ...im curious to see