Situation: You are on the bubble of a 15-seat satellite to a Sunday Major. There is one shorter stack on your table, and two with almost the same stack as you in the other 8-player table.
NL Texas Hold'em $11 USD Buy-in
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100) - Friday
Table $300K Gtd Sunday Qualifier Rebuy 15 Seats Gtd Table #2 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 7: VGrandioos ( 46,918 )
Seat 2: BLONDEFISH ( 18,808 )
Seat 5: VRugDoctor886 ( 8,256 )
Seat 4: VWinniPuuh ( 32,440 )
Seat 6: VjEpz_ ( 67,135 )
Seat 9: Vjoezeta ( 104,391 )
Seat 1: Vkralle574 ( 26,702 )
Seat 8: Vqiangsun ( 20,928 )
Blinds-Antes(2,000/4,000 -100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BLONDEFISH [ Ac As ]
Vjoezeta raises [8,000]
Vkralle574 folds
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
What should you do?
__________________
May your EV always be positive.
Last edited by BlondeFish; Jul 17,2009 at 04:10 PM.
You're way in the RED zone on this hand, and with a raise in front, you have no choice but to push it all in here.
I guess if you're just playing to get a seat (top 15 get it, right? 16 players left?), then MAYBE post and fold, but I doubt very much if I would ever do it myself. A double up here ensures a seat most likely, and you can't get better than the hand you got to do that with.
__________________
The man who invented poker was bright.
But the man who invented the poker chip was a genius!!
FOLD
but I might be a little biased since having my pocket A's cracked three times in my latest live tournament outing.
but really the chip leader is putting out a min raise here probably just trying to steal as he knows noone wants to bust out on the bubble, so I say PUSH ALL IN
__________________
Royal Cup VIII MVP http://www.stevenkerrlive.com
http://www.orangevillepokertour.com
What happens when the short stack doubles up..and so do the others in turn, then all of a sudden YOU are the short stack? Then you wish you had doubled.
Shove...big stacks min raise is likely an attempt to get someone to shove so he can call with KK or QQ..AK..etc
Not sure why I am having to ask you (of all people..lmao..but I need to satisfy my curiousity)..but, what had he (big stack) been doing prior? buying lots or being a nit?
__________________
I am not on tilt, you're just a f*cking idiot.
I play NLHE satellite MTTs more than any other form of poker and I'm definitely not against folding AA in very specific circumstances (I think my VPIP for pocket As is something like 98.8%).
While I think this is very close to a fold, given the information provided, I would still opt for the all-in shove and pray here - knowing that the big stack raiser is certainly going to call you regardless of what he's holding.
If you shove all-in, it's extremely unlikely that anyone else will call or go over the top (and you're either tied with or crushing someone who goes over the top). Realistically, you only have to hope your As hold up against the original raiser's one random hand. If they do - you are virtually 100% guaranteed the ability to fold your way to the Sunday ticket.
If you fold, the blinds are going through you first before going through the short stack. The short stack has five hands to choose from (including this one) for his all-in shove. He could still find a half-way reasonable hand and it is not inconceivable for him to manage one double up. If he does, you are now the short stack and in huge trouble (along with the two at the other table).
There is some other info re: the exact layout of the other table that may play a small factor in my decision (ie. the position of the two small stacks to the blinds and to each other, is there a huge stack(s) who will definitely call when they shove), but all-in-all, I still think shoving is the right move here.
Last edited by LanterneRouge; Jul 17,2009 at 09:09 PM.
This is not a cash game. This is not a tourney where the prizes increase as you increase up the ladder. It is a set amount of seats all worth exactly the same. 15th gets the same as 10th as does 1st. This makes it a special circumstance. You've gotten yourself to this point. One more bust out and every one gets a seat.
That being stated, I can think of three options:
A) If you are willing to post and fold until a) the short stack busts or b) doubles up than you can fold here. They have M=<1.5 so you know they have to move soon. If they do double up than you must be willing to open shove any two cards when the time is right. If this happens and you bust with 7-9o you must accept that fate.
B) You also could smooth call, hoping to get the short stack to push his extra 156tc looking for a triple up. This would mean you would have to be willing to check it down in order for the big stack to win the pot and bust out the short stack. You would also need to be willing to call his semi-regular "any flop push" if you think you are ahead. I'm not a fan of this option at all. It leaves you in quite the pickle if the short stack folds and then the big stack open shoves the flop.
3) If you are not willing to do that, then push for all the reasons LanterneRouge stated. But again, you need to accept when you get burned by 7-3o.
Under these particular circumstances I fold 100% of the time, coose option "a" as I stated above and wait for 'a better spot' (sounds counter-intuitive I know). I have ~0 chance that the original raiser is folding based on his/her stack size. I may be a giant favourite preflop but odds are odds and there are 5 cards to come. This is a semi regular occurance in sats on/near the bubble (Do I fold the best hand preflop to live another day when I know Im playing for all my chips if I call/push?).
Usually with these tournies when a short stack goes all in most people behind smooth call and check down the board. I'm not saying to encourage it or suggest it but it happens. With the short stack being 2BB, this is more likely to occur, esp. with others having such big stacks in relation. This adds value to a fold and looking at the stacks behind actually lessens the value of a push.
qiangsun is close enough in chips to me that I am not the only one feeling the heat at this table. You stated two others at the other table are about your chip stack so they are also looking for help. Also, as Moose stated, if all stacks remain relatively the same you are on the button when the short stack is on the BB. WinniPuuh will also be hesitant to call a SB push from you if its a battle of the blinds. This adds value to your position even with your chip stack.
The preflop min. raise messes up a beautiful thing. I fold quietly. I hope that this parlays me into a seat and I cash well.
__________________
Insert witty poker related signature here...
Last edited by 88Fingers; Jul 18,2009 at 10:24 PM.
Reason: adding thoughts
Poker Forum Canada offers bonuses for many online poker
sites. Party Poker Bonus
Code is the best Canadian poker bonus with Titan Poker Bonus Code being the second best and last but not least is PokerStars Marketing Code. Clearing the full bonus on each site will add a total of
$1,700 in bonus cash to your online bankroll.
