Thoughts on river overshove

syphilaids · Feb 08,2010, 03:24 PM

don't mind the shove, but its player dependant.

If you think he'll hero call then go for it. If eh has a K then it doesn't matter what you do the money is going in.

If not, then a C/R is better as you MIGHT get an extra bet from TT, JJ, QQ, AA if he's an idiot.

moose · Feb 08,2010, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wetts1012

Edit: No idea what he had cuz my brilliant play resulted in a fold.

Yeah you do. He didn't have a king.

I think I like compuease's line on this.

Quote:

Well as played to the river, I bet whatever I think he will call without a K. That way you get something if he has AA or a flush perhaps. If he has a K he is re-raising and you get to push then. Pushing first means you likely only get a call with a K. Best of both worlds IMO... lol... I am not concerned about KK... ever..

jdAA88 · Feb 08,2010, 05:16 PM

I think it should be mentioned that govshark2 is one of the best mtt pros out there, not your avg tourney donk.

Knowing this I'd probably get 800ish on the river.

darbday · Feb 08,2010, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T8urmoney

If you set the value bet @ $700 (a little less than half the pot), and he calls any non-king made hand I would say 50% of the time.....giving you an average profit of $350 on the river.

If you shove $3150, and he calls any non-king hand say 15% of the time....giving you an average profit of $472.50.

I think a shove has the best value.....of course my calling percentages may be off, this is where your read comes in.

you really don't have to change these numbers much to sway the scale the other way i don't think.

Wanita1 · Apr 25,2010, 11:50 PM

From what someone else said about govshark2 not being a donk and actually playing well, I think that he likely had a very good hand and would have probably called a low value bet if you gave him odds to call. You may have been able to pick up a few extra chips. For him to call the turn bet he had to have had something good if he is a disciplined player. Maybe QQ, JJ.

A player with amazing self discipline may have even had a better FH such 6's over K's and thought you had the nuts with the shove. If that is the case then that shove saved you many chips. I have seen one hand played live where a player had such amazing self control that he actually folded a set of Kings. I believe it was blind on blind. There were bets at the flop and the turn. He had K8 and bet the river. The other guy had K6. The K6 hit the Full House and raised him all in but the guy in the end did not call the bet. It was amazing that he folded. The guy with the FH showed him only the 6 so it made him second guess the fold but in the end he would have seen that he made an amazing play as it was televised.