Monteroy

Sorry, forgot to copy the hand history and crypto has no way to get hands emailed.

Basic scenario, a 40+4 sat into a 250+20 tournament. 4 slots, nothing for 5th. 5 of us left, stacks are roughly

BB (me) 3000
SB - 7500
Button - 3000 (had literally 45 more chips then me)
other stacks were 20,000 and 12,000

Blinds are 150/300, they go up rather slowly (12 minute levels)

I am dealt Ad 7d in the BB. Fold to button he shoves, sb folds.

Note, the button had been shoving every time in this situation, and had been fairly loose which is how he went from 15,000 to his current 3,000.

If I call it is over for one of us.

I did call in this case figuring I had to take him on and likely my hand was in decent shape vs his shoving range. He had 33 and I won.

I am wondering what range of hands people would consider calling in this spot? Note, I probably fold to a raise by any of the other stacks in this situation.

The button guy was fuming after, but it seemed to be as good a shot as I could have. If I fold there he has 3600ish to my 2700ish.

AcidJoe

I probably don't call with that. On the bubble there, I find the greater his range the tighter I make my calling range. Now if you pushed with that hand I see NP.

__________________
Kristy, why can't we all just get along?

actyper

Was he shoving everytime like this on the bubble or during the final table? I don't really mind the call if so if he has a 100% range in this scenario.

Monteroy

Well, it is a small sample size, but the stacks were pretty much 3 big ones and 2-3 small ones (before other guy gone) and he shoved 4 times on the button in that spot already in that situation. Similarly I shoved my sb into the bb 4 times and got 4 folds.

The main reason I called was because even if I fold then say I double up through a big stack the table then is something like 25,000 13,000 9,000 5,000 (me) and 3,500. Better sure but not really game changing. Calling this guy this hand means it is over one way or the other and there has to be some real value there, especially against a guy who shoves pretty much every time there.

I did not expect to dominate, I was hoping he had J9 type hand.

Vandal

I'll run the ICM EV on it:

The nice part about this situation, is that he's been doing it everytime, so it makes the calculations very easy...

Okay, you are sitting at $158 EV, considering a $270 payout.

If you Fold, you drop to $144 EV.

So folding has an EV of -$14.

If his hand is truly random, then you have a 61% chance of winning and placing. .61*270 = $165 EV, or a change of +$7 EV.

Therefore, calling is $21 dollars better than folding. IF he can go all in with any 2 cards, as soon as he starts playing only slightly better hands, this drops down drastically...

FYI.

Oh, by the way, if this player has you covered by more than 5K, this becomes a very poor play, a loss of $40 or some such thing. Your analysis of "ending it" with that play is why it becomes positive Expected Value.