What are your thoughts?

Sharantyr · Feb 11,2011, 11:44 PM

Into the money, about 65 players left.

PokerStars Game #57522151103: Tournament #406010865, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (2000/4000) - 2011/02/11 23:45:52 ET
Table '406010865 38' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Sharantyr (68481 in chips)
Seat 2: neptune5 (103351 in chips)
Seat 3: beckhamnovos (149479 in chips)
Seat 4: don primus (133979 in chips)
Seat 6: Eisenherz 2 (179578 in chips)
Seat 7: Reloaded07 (87045 in chips)
Seat 8: St3phenHendr (78076 in chips)
Seat 9: billbigs1004 (79372 in chips)
Sharantyr: posts the ante 400
neptune5: posts the ante 400
beckhamnovos: posts the ante 400
don primus: posts the ante 400
Eisenherz 2: posts the ante 400
Reloaded07: posts the ante 400
St3phenHendr: posts the ante 400
billbigs1004: posts the ante 400
beckhamnovos: posts small blind 2000
don primus: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sharantyr [Td Ks]
Eisenherz 2: folds
Reloaded07: folds
St3phenHendr: folds
billbigs1004: folds
Sharantyr: raises 6000 to 10000
neptune5: folds
beckhamnovos: folds
don primus: raises 6000 to 16000
Sharantyr: calls 6000
*** FLOP *** [Jh Qc 4s]
don primus: bets 20000

BuyinBank · Feb 12,2011, 06:04 AM

Ugly spot.

You're pretty much always drawing here if you get it in, but you've also got a lot of equity against his range, even with the min 3bet preflop. You have roughly 52k left to win a 137k pot, so you need roughly 38% equity against his range.

I'm probably shoving here most of the time, even without any fold equity, but I'm far from the greatest MTT player here. Let's see what the smart players have to say.

darbday · Feb 12,2011, 08:03 AM

getting over 4 to 1 pre and odds to race vs 99+ aq+, i can't find a fold pre, nor can i not shove at this point......any other way?

darbday · Feb 12,2011, 08:04 PM

Trivial shove?

Wetts1012 · Feb 13,2011, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darbday

Trivial shove?

yes.

darbday · Feb 13,2011, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wetts1012

yes.

was waiting...thank you sir.

darbday · Feb 14,2011, 10:36 PM

also about the preflop open. kto is fine from late position because there are times when the blinds fold and we scoop their blinds. Here though, with 2 big stacks in the blinds that know you might be light because you are in a stealing position, you have to consider that they might not fold so much and sometimes they will play back at you pre and make you fold....

its just a consideration though....i think

Sharantyr · Feb 15,2011, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darbday

also about the preflop open. kto is fine from late position because there are times when the blinds fold and we scoop their blinds. Here though, with 2 big stacks in the blinds that know you might be light because you are in a stealing position, you have to consider that they might not fold so much and sometimes they will play back at you pre and make you fold....

its just a consideration though....i think

A very good consideration. Thanks.

I don't quite know how to word this one ...

...do you always go with the odds and the trivial shove so to speak at this point and hope to make a stack to keep running deeper?

I can't imagine that it would ever be correct to think you can fold and come back playing flips with 10bb but just curious on your thoughts on that. Is there ever a time this would be the case?

Vekked · Feb 16,2011, 02:16 AM

Any reads? This is very read dependent.

EDIT: With absolutely no reads I think it's a fold vs. any reasonable 3-betting range, since this flop clobbers it. Also min-raising pre would make this situation less awkward I think.

darbday · Feb 16,2011, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vekked

Any reads? This is very read dependent.

EDIT: With absolutely no reads I think it's a fold vs. any reasonable 3-betting range, since this flop clobbers it. Also min-raising pre would make this situation less awkward I think.

good to see ya sir!

with whats in the pot after the flop bet and what shar has left....i believe that she has the odds vs.... 99+ aq+. didn't really factor in which hands villain would fold (which might be none).

darbday · Feb 16,2011, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sharantyr

...do you always go with the odds and the trivial shove so to speak at this point and hope to make a stack to keep running deeper?

when a play is a winning play its called +ev.....in a tourney you take every single +ev play you get up until close to the final table. when your so deep that moving up one or 2 spots makes you more money, a new game starts called ICM. Until then its my impression you ruthlessly take any +ev spot you can get.