The Argggghhhh Spot.....

Thread: The Argggghhhh Spot.....

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  1. #16
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2018
    Wtf? You pretty much have the nuts and there are hands that would do this that you beat. V2 could have 88 and V1 could have JJ. Your only really worried about V2 having one combo of 109s and V1 having one combo of KK. Either one of them could have QK as well. Assuming they are competent players,there ranges may contain worse hands but I will assume they don't.

    So you win vs 88,JJ ,lose to KK,10d9d and you chop with QK. Most of the time that is. Sometimes V2 will have 10d9d and you and V1 with both have QK. Each villain has a 17% chance of having that combo that beats you and roughly 33% chance in chopping the pot(depends if your chopping with V1 OR V2). Which means on average you will win 50% lose 17% and chop 33% of the time.

    So by my count the pot otr after you bet and V2 raises is $50,200 + V1's shove brings the total pot $84,200. You have to call $22,000 more and you win %50 of the time which is an ev of $31,000.

    If you all we're deeper and V1 makes a larger 3bet I would just call. Then if V2 4bets and V1 5bets I would fold knowing V1 has KK. If V2 4bets and V1 flats I still fold. V1 might even fold JJ at that point and be flatting only QK. V2's 4bet should at minimum be QK which means if V1 is flatting QK than V2 has 10d9d. If V2 4bets and and V1 folds I estimate my ev based on the pot odds and decide if the call is ev+. Will me chopping the pot 2/3 times (2 combos of QK one of 10d9d) amount to more than calling and losing 1/3 times.
    Last edited by Beck; Jan 12,2018 at 03:10 AM.

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