SNG Call?

darbday · Feb 03,2012, 08:07 PM

UTG+1 is a winning reg so a reasonable shoving range. Blinds prob still have 2mins

Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds, 50 Ante, 9 Players

MP2: 8,128
JodaB. (CO): 2,685
BTN: 6,395
SB: 3,997
BB: 4,028
UTG: 14,162
UTG+1: 4,900
UTG+2: 8,695
MP1: 30,668

Pre-Flop: (1,350) Q

J

dealt to JodaB. (CO)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 4,850 and is All-In, 3 folds, JodaB. calls 2,635 and is All-In

costanza · Feb 03,2012, 08:10 PM

whats his range?

Hobbes · Feb 03,2012, 08:12 PM

With 4BB as much as I prefer to be the shover, I call.

Hobbes · Feb 03,2012, 08:14 PM

btw

How'd you end up so sort?

darbday · Feb 03,2012, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hobbes

btw

How'd you end up so sort?

i lost my chips in a fierce battle of cards vs cards!

Cerberus · Feb 04,2012, 11:35 AM

I would think crying call. Probably 57/43 vs some Ace rag. Not really going to get much better than that without some serious luck. Also, you have two other short stacks in the blinds who will come along with any weak A or pp, in which case you can quadrouple up should you hit rather than just double up.

Results?

DataMn · Feb 04,2012, 12:45 PM

I know it is not the end all and be all, but SNG Wizard says it is not even close. They would have to be shoving with over 45% of their range to make it profitable.

Hobbes · Feb 04,2012, 12:53 PM

I need to reinstall SNG wizard on my new puter, but even cEV?

DataMn · Feb 04,2012, 09:40 PM

If they are pushing with 20% of their hands (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) then it is slightly +cEV to shove.

Assumptions made:
-Button will also call with top 3.8% of hands (TT+,AQs+,AKo)
-SB will also call with top 5.4% of hands (99,AJs+,AQo+)
-BB will also call with top 6.7% of hands (88,ATs+,AQo+)
-If one of the earlier positions call, the later ones would only overcall with QQ+,AKs

The question is whether UTG+1 was shoving 20% of their hands when they had to go through the big stacks (UTG+2, MP1, MP2) to their left. I think a lot of players would be a bit tighter than that range in that position - or would wait until they are in a later position so that they have less people to go through.

Richard~ · Feb 05,2012, 05:30 AM

I would fold, we still have som fold equity vs bad players

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by costanza

whats his range?

you're somewhat restating the question

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hobbes

btw

How'd you end up so sort?

Sort of what?

This question suggests that your 10bbs w/antes button shove range is 100%+

I think you're saying here that I might have folded too much to get here. But my 4-5bbs shove range can be very near atc from any position. Pretty sure I'm the loosest shover here (or at least close to)

But also will point out that I'm considering making a marginal or even -ev call here that most players would not even consider...

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DataMn

If they are pushing with 20% of their hands (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) then it is slightly +cEV to shove.

Assumptions made:
-Button will also call with top 3.8% of hands (TT+,AQs+,AKo)
-SB will also call with top 5.4% of hands (99,AJs+,AQo+)
-BB will also call with top 6.7% of hands (88,ATs+,AQo+)
-If one of the earlier positions call, the later ones would only overcall with QQ+,AKs

The question is whether UTG+1 was shoving 20% of their hands when they had to go through the big stacks (UTG+2, MP1, MP2) to their left. I think a lot of players would be a bit tighter than that range in that position - or would wait until they are in a later position so that they have less people to go through.

I think 20% is fairly std. some will be way wider and some tighter. But I think in spots like this we can be slightly negative ev, since the blinds will likely go up by the next orbit, when we hit the blinds we will have very little bbs left, and we are very likely to get pre-empted by other shovers until we hit the blinds.

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard~

I would fold, we still have som fold equity vs bad players

omgclaydoll (a dc pro) says this all the time but I think its important to note that 'having fold equity' and putting a hh into nash or sngwiz are pretty much the same thing.

The question is I guess is this marginal or -ev hand better than the alternative which is something between now and sitting on the button after going through the blinds and having the blinds increase. So we have to push withing the next 7 hands or something

sngwiz/nash....doesn't account for the blinds or the blinds going up

Richard~ · Feb 05,2012, 10:30 AM

fold equity we shouldn't have is really hard to model since it's such a huuuge boots in chip ev in certain situations. I don't think calling QJ is neutral cEV vs an unknown range but I could be wrong. It's really hard to analyze but the pros of folding is that we tap into the possible huuuuge boost in cEV :P