SuitedPair

so I make a weak call from the BB with a pair of fives. Flop comes with an ace and a gut shot, lead out or check fold (or what I actually did...)

No Limit Hold'em Tournament T10/T20
Buy-in: $3.16+$0.34 USD Hold'em No Limit
PokerStars
9 players

Stacks:
UTG - yellow2703 (T1,500)
UTG+1 - Beelzebub1 (T1,480)
UTG+2 - tschebe8 (T1,500)
MP - drusewind (T1,480)
MP2 - Obeliks1 (T1,470)
CO - tjode1 (T1,470)
BTN - cegripe (T1,169)
SB - deandres111 (T1,931)
BB - Hero (T1,500)

Preflop: (T30, 9 players) Hero is BB with 5c 5d
1 fold, Beelzebub1 calls T20,
2 folds,
Obeliks1 raises to T100,
2 folds, deandres111 calls T90,
Hero calls T80, <---- weak call? raise? far too early to shove right?
Beelzebub1 calls T80

Flop: 4c Ah 2c (T400, 4 players)
deandres111 checks,
Hero checks, <----- I checked
Beelzebub1 checks,
Obeliks1 bets T200, deandres111 calls T200,
Hero calls T200, <----Yup, check call .....hunting for the damn 3 or a set. any good? this is the meat of this hand
1 fold

rest of the hand below in white


Turn: 6d (T1,000, 3 players)
deandres111 checks,
Hero checks,
Obeliks1 bets T500,
deandres111 raises to T1,631 (all-in),
1 fold, Obeliks1 calls T670 (all-in),
Uncalled bet of T461 returned to deandres111

River: 3d (T3,340, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Total Pot: T3,340
deandres111 shows 7c Ac (a pair of Aces)
Obeliks1 shows Ad Td (a pair of Aces - Ten kicker)

Obeliks1 wins T3,340

darbday

to hit a set or a 4 outer on the turn you have 6 outs time 2 = 12% chance

thats around 1 in 10 chances i think

so you need to make somewhere around 10 times your investment for it to be profitable

200 x 10 will be 2000 and you don't really even have that many chips behind...and you might not stack your opp.

^^^^ is that right?

set it and forget it i think, checkfold any no setted flops. nitty sng player might even fold pre

__________________
I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.

trigs

preflop call to set mine is fine. i would fold to the flop bet here (but i've never hit a gut shot in my life).