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  1. #1
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    live $1/$3

    My stack is about $350
    I'm in the big blind, I look at my cards as they are dealt to me. Two back kings.
    A family pot starts forming. the game is ten handed. only 2 folds, 7 callers including the small blind. Obviously I have to raise, how much?

    I raise, make it $21. I get a mid player call and cutoff calls too.
    Flop Kh Jd 5s.
    Do you recommend c bet? yes there is a straight draw there, but I don't see the two callers as ones that would play queen ten. the first caller could have AQ (a gut shot), him calling could induce the second caller to come along with ace ten (another gut shot), so is checking the flop too risky?

  2. #2
    High Roller. Bfillmaff's Avatar
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    I think it is really going to depend on game conditions. The $21 raise is for sure fine, but if this game is like it sounds (with 7 limpers) I make it $30-$35 and count on at least one gambler to come along for the ride.

    As for the flop, I wouldn't say checking is overly risky, but first to act I would bet right out and give them a chance to make mistakes. There's 70-80 in the pot, I'd go 30-40 like you are taking a weak stab.

  3. #3
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    This seems very very straight forward in my mind! Of course you bet, you would cbet this with your top set you would also cbet this with AK you would also cbet this bit 89 of hearts if you made a squeeze. So lets evaluate hands here, I don't know game dynamics here and how players have been playing, ranges they have shown to play etc.... but lets imagine that there range is pretty much any pair, anything suited, anything connected, any 2 face cards etc. How many of these hands are you not crushing, even if they hit? Lets say player 1 magically hit KJ, he's dead to quads, lets say someone has q10, or Aq or A10, you WANT them to get their money in bad, you want their money in the pot, because more times than not, they will not hit and they pay you off along the way and fold on the river. Lets say magic man has AJ and just doesn't believe you have the king and spikes the J on the turn, you have his stack. WHat about flopped under set, give them a chance to make the mistake and re-raise for stacks. I don't think there is ever a situation in which I check this flop without knowing for 100% certainty that my opponent is a maniac and if I ever check that they will bomb the flop because they are super aggressive, and then I would probably flat the flop bet. I would keep giving my opponents a chance to make the mistake and bluff off their money as clearly you have the best of it right now.

    Now let's say for the hell of it, you check! It now gets checked behind, uh oh total lost value, and the turn comes and A,Q,10 or 9. You basically handcuff yourself at this point because you are out of position and betting here seems very bad, especially because with no bet, you can't even begin to narrow a range, and really you are giving them free cards to out draw you, if the board came k 9 2 all off suit, then hell check all you want if you think it will induce, or you want them to catch up, but here you want them to pay to catch you every time, unless again you know for CERTAIN player a and player b will bet flop and even if you get a call, now is your chance when it gets back to you if you want to play it tricky and just flat those pets to set them up for a later street bluff or to check raise and hope someone has hit a 2 pair, or AK or KQ or something like this that thinks they have outs or are even ahead.

    As for bet sizing on the flop, this is where it gets a little tricky in a multi pot hand, you want to give them value but you also want to make it mathematically bad for them to call, and they may not even realize it. So lets say they are on the draw, and have 8 cards that will make them the straight, they need to be getting 8/47=17% or 5.75 or almost 6 to 1 to make this call profitable over the long run. So assuming the pot is approx. $80, your bet of $20 on the flop gives them 5 to 1 to call and hit, which is still negative, but assuming that the value is good and that player b is now coming along, he is getting the proper odds of 6 to 1 to call and he would be making the right decision. Now lets say flop bet is $35, play a is getting a true 3.5 to 1 and if player b comes along the implied odds are nearly 4.25 to 1.... Now this scenario if they don't know the math very well, you are building a nice pot, and stringing them along, while it is both profitable for you and negative for them. Now lets consider that you did that, the pot is now 185, and you started with $300 so you have a stack of $240 behind and the turn gets them the straight, assuming they even called with that. You have a choice here to bet again and see if it did hit them or not, or check and be forced to make a decision on the turn that would affect the river as if you call the turn, your virtually calling the river unless a 4 card straight exists. So if you bet out, now is the time to see if they really have it or not, I would put in a bet of something like $75 now as if player A and even if player B both hit it, your $75 into the pot either gets a fold and scoops pot, maybe a worst hand still sees value and calls ( we want this) or player A shoves for his remaining $240 assuming everyone is equal. Now the pot is $185 + $75 +$240 = $500 and for you the call is $165. your odds are 3 to 1 to call. Assuming they hit their straight, you still have outs..... there are 1 king, 3 jacks, 3 fives, 3 queens/tens/aces/nines whatever they hit the straight with giving you 10 outs still. 10/46 is 22% to win the hand here or 4.5 to 1. So in this case you could fold if you wish but your not that big of a dog in this situation, your odds are slightly worse than break even to make this call, only assuming they hit the straight, if they are bluffing off with anything else, you crush them in this situation. There are lots of variables here, but in my thinking, there is no way I ever check this flop back, as that would be very bad for ev, but also makes players who are good thinking players start to wonder a little more about that check as it becomes even more suspicious and less value received long term.

  4. #4
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    Thanks for the well thought out response.

    Stack sizes were me $350. mid position caller had me covered. I know him from tournaments, where he is super aggressive. would I call him a maniac, no.
    cutoff had about 200. not much info on him.

    I posted the original question, because I think I missed some value when I checked and they both checked back.

    the turn brought me quads! now what? seeing that i checked the flop, do I fire now? or let them see the river to give them a chance to improve?
    Betting turn might look like I didn't like the king on the flop, but now my QQ TT AA hands don't care, with the K pairing the board.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Jacen299 View Post
    My stack is about $350
    I'm in the big blind, I look at my cards as they are dealt to me. Two back kings.
    A family pot starts forming. the game is ten handed. only 2 folds, 7 callers including the small blind. Obviously I have to raise, how much?

    I raise, make it $21. I get a mid player call and cutoff calls too.
    Flop Kh Jd 5s.
    Do you recommend c bet? yes there is a straight draw there, but I don't see the two callers as ones that would play queen ten. the first caller could have AQ (a gut shot), him calling could induce the second caller to come along with ace ten (another gut shot), so is checking the flop too risky?
    I think your preflop raise may have been a little low. With that many callers, i would like to limit the chances of playing a multiway pot. That said, you have the best hand preflop, and you're making money on every caller. Ride the variance train with a smile on your face!!

    The only bad point is you are out of position.

    I c-bet the this flop everytime. You are way ahead, but the only way to extract value is to bet... I like $55 into this pot (of just under $80?) Less smells like a "call me" bet, and sets off alarm bells in my head. (But I regularly see ghosts under the bed... lol)

    After the turn, any money you make will be dependant on what your opponents hold... no easy way to extract money from lesser hands here.
    -- Michael
    Luck is just probability taken personally!

  6. #6
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jacen299 View Post
    Thanks for the well thought out response.

    Stack sizes were me $350. mid position caller had me covered. I know him from tournaments, where he is super aggressive. would I call him a maniac, no.
    cutoff had about 200. not much info on him.

    I posted the original question, because I think I missed some value when I checked and they both checked back.

    the turn brought me quads! now what? seeing that i checked the flop, do I fire now? or let them see the river to give them a chance to improve?
    Betting turn might look like I didn't like the king on the flop, but now my QQ TT AA hands don't care, with the K pairing the board.
    So this would be my response to that.

    So remember when your playing poker, your telling a story by creating a line in which you play the hand, it tells the other players a story. So lets evaluate then. If you pump it up preflop, and then check it back on a 2 face card board, what kind of hand do you represent there, I would say a very big monster would play this way, a small pair that completely missed and gives up on the board, a hand like AQ A10 etc that wants to see another card now for cheap and doesn't want to face a re-raise. I am sure there are others that players can add here, but for the sake of my write up I will leave it at that. Okay so the turn brings you quads, well you just lost out on value on the flop, so on the turn, ask yourself 2 very important questions here, 1. What hand am I trying to represent here by betting out on the turn, given the types of hands ive stated above that would play this scenario. 2. Are better hands going to fold to a bet here, or would worse hands be inclined to call here? What would they need to have to make a call? This spot is kinda gross, because unless player a or b has hit a pair, you've virtually lost all value here in this hand, unless someone gets really cray cray and decides to try bluffing, but I doubt it. I would say since you checked it on the flop, and the turn brings a 2nd king, people are less likely to think you have the king, especially if you checked it back on the flop, but you now also know that nobody has a king either, so getting value will all be determined on the type of hand you can represent here. Betting out here leaves player a and b a chance to just straight up fold if they missed completely, or just to flat behind you. I think I would personally check behind and give my opponents the chance to make the mistake here and put chips in the pot. If the turn is checked around, it is now very very very unlikely you will get much money unless someone took this line with JJ and is just waiting for the same thing you are. If it is bet out on the flop, this is your dilemma then, since you are out of position, do you re-raise to make it look a little strange, and see if they make a mistake and call or re-raise, in each case the flats mean your going to value bet the shit outta the river and get paid almost everytime by way worse, if you get re-raised time to shipski and either they bluffed off that bet and you scoop that pot, good value, or they hit like a full house or something like this and your getting their entire stack.

    But you gotta be asking yourself those 2 questions while your playing 1. What hand do I represent when I do this, you can also reverse the question to them and say what kind of hand do they represent when they do what they did. 2. Will a worse hand ever call in this spot, or would a better hand ever fold?

    Tell us what happens, Im waiting for something totally crazy and bluffs off with q10 re-shove on the turn or something lol and you stack em anyways and lost no value lol

  7. #7
    Full PFC Member Irunit4times's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MickeyHoldem View Post
    I think your preflop raise may have been a little low. With that many callers, i would like to limit the chances of playing a multiway pot. That said, you have the best hand preflop, and you're making money on every caller. Ride the variance train with a smile on your face!!

    The only bad point is you are out of position.

    I c-bet the this flop everytime. You are way ahead, but the only way to extract value is to bet... I like $55 into this pot (of just under $80?) Less smells like a "call me" bet, and sets off alarm bells in my head. (But I regularly see ghosts under the bed... lol)

    After the turn, any money you make will be dependant on what your opponents hold... no easy way to extract money from lesser hands here.
    Totally right that anything less sends alarm bells off, but also if your the player on that draw, and your getting those odds, you may be more inclined to call and try to outdraw because you think your straight will win right. So in my opion if you bet out $55 your potentially losing more value because now the price to outdraw you just went up and players are more likely to fold here, remember you WANT them to call here. Also, if the turn is in your favour, making the nuts say, value the hell outta the river and give them proper odds to call now and hit their straight and pray that they do hit it then go for stacks on the river if the card is something that hits their hand so you assume. I think players miss the value train when betting to protect their hands in scenarios that your this far ahead with re-drawing outs if they do hit. Different if your holding a straight on the board with 2 to a flush, you have no re-draw so you kinda want to protect that hand a little more than in this scenario.

  8. #8
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    One detail I haven't mentioned, a few hands previous I had check raised the mid position player. I think I checked the flop thinking i will check raise him again if he takes a stab, being it was a second time, he might say not this time. I guess that's table dynamics.

    So I turn quads. I don't think either of them have anything, paired the jack would be nice. I decide I have to give them a chance to catch up, I figure they have mid pocket pairs, maybe 77 88 99. So a river of one of those would be great. I check. mid position bets $35. cutoff folds.

    Now I flat or raise. I really think he's got nothing so even a min raise makes him fold. Perhaps he has a diamond draw, as when the second diamond came out is when he bet. At the same time I decide that I will lead out on the river (as I should have on the flop).

    The river brings a deuce.
    I bet $75. He folds. Sorry no stack off story. The point of the thread was to confirm I misplayed the hand.

    The room had a high hand payout. I was certain quad kings should qualify even though I didn't know the details of high hand as I was new there. I tabled my hand, which induced some info out of turn bet guy. What do you think he had?

    High hand paid $100. Would you check top set knowing that your hand could easily improve to qualify for a high hand?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Irunit4times View Post
    Totally right that anything less sends alarm bells off, but also if your the player on that draw, and your getting those odds, you may be more inclined to call and try to outdraw because you think your straight will win right. So in my opion if you bet out $55 your potentially losing more value because now the price to outdraw you just went up and players are more likely to fold here, remember you WANT them to call here. Also, if the turn is in your favour, making the nuts say, value the hell outta the river and give them proper odds to call now and hit their straight and pray that they do hit it then go for stacks on the river if the card is something that hits their hand so you assume. I think players miss the value train when betting to protect their hands in scenarios that your this far ahead with re-drawing outs if they do hit. Different if your holding a straight on the board with 2 to a flush, you have no re-draw so you kinda want to protect that hand a little more than in this scenario.
    Let's look at what hands are going to call a bet on the flop. JJ and 55 are going to call anything (lets just ignore how unlikely JJ is because its irrelevant) Before we see the turn we must consider hands that have a K. AK is unlikey given preflop action, but if its out there, its going to call $55 just as likely as $30. KJ is in the same position... he's not going anywhere!

    KQ, KT, Kxs represent 17 out of 2160 possible hands... less than 1 percent! And God help those players that call anything with a weak king and backdoor flush draw! And their decision to call will not be based on the odds of their hand improving!

    The hands that compose most of what our opponents will have when we debate the size of our flop bet will be some sort of straight draw. AQ, AT, and QT. These hands must improve to win the hand and your opponents will calculate the odds you give them to call (in theory!). Betting $30 into an ~$80 pot with ~$300 behind gives your opponent over 13 to 1 implied odds to hit his card on the turn. This is enough even for the gutshot draws. If those 3 hands are equally likey (which of course they're not, but is to your advantage in this calculation) than there are (4+4+8)/3 cards that make their hand out of 47... or ~7.8 to 1. This makes calling a $30 bet in this situation profitable for your opponent. If its profitable for your opponent... you are losing value!!

    If you can get away from top set when a scare card hits on the turn, then you could argue that you're not risking your entire stack and he's not getting the proper implied odds to call... but can you?... and should you? After the turn bet, you may have the proper odds to call. Because there is dead money in the pot, both players can make profitable plays from a certain point in a hand that seem fine. Betting $30 on the flop may not be incorrect or "un"profitable... but it may not be the most profitable!

    *variables used to make these calculations may have been simplified, altered or ignored so as to allow it to fit on one page! YMMV
    Last edited by MickeyHoldem; Mar 18,2015 at 03:51 PM. Reason: Typo
    -- Michael
    Luck is just probability taken personally!

  10. #10
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    The EV of turning quads, assuming a king is a guaranteed winner, is only approximately $2.5 ($100 * .025) .025 being the roughly 1/40 chance of turning a king. It's not really a factor.

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