SNG sng theoryish

darbday · Feb 03,2012, 08:05 PM

villain is a decent reg, not very good and not elite, but not breakevenish ;p

hud stats are abc poker

Poker Stars, $7.34 + $0.66 NL Hold'em Tournament, 75/150 Blinds, 9 Players

UTG: 1,790
UTG+1: 1,864
UTG+2: 1,391
MP1: 3,525
MP2: 1,249
CO: 1,445
JodaB. (BTN): 1,955
SB: 2,281
BB: 1,895

Pre-Flop: (225) 7

7

dealt to JodaB. (BTN)
3 folds, MP1 raises to 300, 2 folds, JodaB.

trigs · Feb 04,2012, 07:01 AM

i push here and hope he doesn't have an over pair.

Richard~ · Feb 04,2012, 07:06 AM

do you ever not push here?

Edit: Many regs are in the mindset that getting to blinds 75/150 with a stack you can raisefold is worth a lot

darbday · Feb 04,2012, 07:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard~

do you ever not push here?

maybe not but just feel lost sometimes esp if its a random

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard~

Many regs are in the mindset that getting to blinds 75/150 with a stack you can raisefold is worth a lot

maybe...but many regs also don't really have a raise fold range esp without antes. I mean, I still think there is fold equity but in general, not too much.

Richard~ · Feb 04,2012, 08:26 AM

I dunno, I just autopush here without a read. I probably start considering a fold around 2500+ chips and flatting is probably always bad below 6k effective unless again you have a read that he is always strong

DataMn · Feb 04,2012, 12:27 PM

It comes down to your read, and how many hands you think the person is making this raise with. But the fold equity that we are getting is very large since there is over a quarter of our stack out there already.

If you think that he would be doing the raise with the top 20% of hands (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo), and he would fold to your shove with any part of this range, then the shove is the right move to do.

Example: He raises with the top 20% of hands, and then only calls your shove with the top 15% of hands (77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+). The fact that he is folding 25% of his current range makes your shove +EV [You are 45.84% against this new range, and you need 45.52% to be profitable].

If he does call with all of the top 20% of hands, it is still pretty close (you are 48.99% and need 50% to be profitable). But, if the player is ABC as stated it is hard to believe they are going to call your shove with hands like JTo.

If they are loosening up to try to put pressure on anyone, or happen to be out of the mold of ABC and moving towards maniac then the 77 shove is automatic. You would be over 50% against their current range, and the more hands they have to fold to have a hand sure to at least be a coin flip (top 15% - 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+) hands you more and more equity.

Now, if you think they would only do this raise with the top 10% of hands, and they will call with all of them, then you need to fold.

PS - In the future it would probably help to know that this is not the final table (it took me a while adding up the chips to figure it out), where ICM considerations would become more prevalent than chip EV ones.

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 09:40 AM

...

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trigs

i push here and hope he doesn't have an over pair.

if you decide its correct to push...tell yourself you will be ecstatic even if he shows aces

Richard~ · Feb 05,2012, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darbday

if you decide its correct to push...tell yourself you will be ecstatic even if he shows aces

that's...stupid

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DataMn

It comes down to your read, and how many hands you think the person is making this raise with. But the fold equity that we are getting is very large since there is over a quarter of our stack out there already.

If you think that he would be doing the raise with the top 20% of hands (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo), and he would fold to your shove with any part of this range, then the shove is the right move to do.

Example: He raises with the top 20% of hands, and then only calls your shove with the top 15% of hands (77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+). The fact that he is folding 25% of his current range makes your shove +EV [You are 45.84% against this new range, and you need 45.52% to be profitable].

If he does call with all of the top 20% of hands, it is still pretty close (you are 48.99% and need 50% to be profitable). But, if the player is ABC as stated it is hard to believe they are going to call your shove with hands like JTo.

If they are loosening up to try to put pressure on anyone, or happen to be out of the mold of ABC and moving towards maniac then the 77 shove is automatic. You would be over 50% against their current range, and the more hands they have to fold to have a hand sure to at least be a coin flip (top 15% - 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+) hands you more and more equity.

Now, if you think they would only do this raise with the top 10% of hands, and they will call with all of them, then you need to fold.

PS - In the future it would probably help to know that this is not the final table (it took me a while adding up the chips to figure it out), where ICM considerations would become more prevalent than chip EV ones.

thx very nice post.

now heres the thing though. how do i put this guy on a min raise range? his range is anything from solely min raising KK+. Or possible just hand he'll call a jam like 88+ aqs+, or maybe some min/fold/call range like Kjs+, 66+ ATs+....and only calling of like the top 5% or something....

With antes I can have a way better idea. But without antes I feel lost here i think?

Also about stating whether its final table or not, you get no acknowledgments from me until their are at least antes in play

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard~

that's...stupid

Are you suggesting we get better odds if we close our eyes?

Richard~ · Feb 05,2012, 09:49 AM

no, but ofc we will be sad if he shows aces ^^'

I've never been ecstatic to shove into a better hand and I never will

darbday · Feb 05,2012, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard~

no, but ofc we will be sad if he shows aces ^^'

but if we begin to feel happy we can understand the game better

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard~

I've never been ecstatic to shove into a better hand and I never will

Have you ever been sad to see villain snap you with a worse hand though?

Richard~ · Feb 05,2012, 10:21 AM

we don't really have to be happy to be called by a better hand or a worse hand, I'm happy when I win and sad when I lose, that doesn't make me results oriented

I dunno, I'm don't get happy cause I get better at poker, I just to that as a means to get happy ^^'

Meistro · Feb 18,2012, 08:27 PM

In MP's shoes I would just jam anything I decided to play. Probably like Ax+, maybe like Axs+ / AT+.... something like that, obviously a ton of hands. Sometimes the minraise from the super short stack is the 'lol i'll sucker them in with my big pair by just raising a little bit' but i would jam all day. Seems like there is a lot of value in a push.