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Nov 25,2011, 07:41 PM
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#1 | | Full PFC Member | Stumped
6 left in a 21 player tourney. $10+$1 to enter, top 3 paid. Levels are 10 mins.
I am in 2nd place at the time of this hand with 7,965 in chips and the opponent who is the SB has 5,462
Blinds at 100-200.
Me:  
UTG folds
UTG+1(me) raises to 550
UTG2 folds
Dealer folds SB calls
BB folds.
FOP:   
SB checks
I bet 975
SB calls
TURN: 
SB insta-jams 4,117
I have a decision to make. I have top pair with top kicker and a draw to the ace high flush.
Opponent's possible hands? suited connector diamonds such as J-10, Q-J, K-Q, maybe pocket 5's or 6's and maybe a slim chance of any suited connected 7-8 except diamonds.
Did he hit his straight on the turn? Did he hit his flush? Does he have a set?
I don't put him on 2p because I would think he would have c/r on the flop. I also don't put him on a high PP, I think I would have been reraised pre. If he did hit any of these hands, I have to assume that he must think I have the and wants it to end right there.
If I call and win, I'll still be in 2nd but with a considerbale cushion between rest of the field. If I lose, I'd sit in 5th with just over 2k....
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"I'd rather shoot for the moon and miss than aim for the gutter and make it" -Danny Trejo-
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Nov 25,2011, 07:58 PM
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#2 | | Inhumano Forboon! |
youre supposed to put all these hands you're naming into poker stove and see what it says
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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.
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Nov 25,2011, 08:09 PM
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#3 | | Full PFC Member |
actually I looked all over for the magic 8 ball but failed
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"I'd rather shoot for the moon and miss than aim for the gutter and make it" -Danny Trejo-
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Nov 25,2011, 08:15 PM
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#4 | | Inhumano Forboon! | Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddguts  actually I looked all over for the magic 8 ball but failed | did you try stove though?
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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.
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Nov 25,2011, 08:25 PM
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#5 | | Full PFC Member |
I've never heard of it poker stove, guess I will check that out, thanks darbday
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"I'd rather shoot for the moon and miss than aim for the gutter and make it" -Danny Trejo-
Last edited by Muddguts; Nov 25,2011 at 08:38 PM.
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Nov 25,2011, 08:49 PM
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#6 | | #bonking
Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: South Bay, California
Posts: 5,934
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Originally Posted by Muddguts I've never heard of it poker stove, guess I will check that out, thanks darbday | wat?
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That level 5 trap really paid off...ship him the cookies.
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Nov 25,2011, 08:49 PM
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#7 | | Inhumano Forboon! | Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddguts I've never heard of it poker stove, guess I will check that out, thanks darbday | what we are looking for is how our hand does vs the average of all your guesses put together
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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.
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Nov 25,2011, 09:13 PM
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#8 | | I got my flippy floppies!
Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Interior, BC
Posts: 2,400
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He has something like 77-1010...maybe with a diamond...but then again, I don't believe anyone.
oh yeah..and he never jams two diamonds..
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I am not on tilt, you're just a f*cking idiot.
Last edited by DennisG; Nov 25,2011 at 10:39 PM.
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Nov 26,2011, 04:59 AM
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#9 | | Full PFC Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,661
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Originally Posted by DennisG He has something like 77-1010...maybe with a diamond...but then again, I don't believe anyone.
oh yeah..and he never jams two diamonds.. | This is pretty much my assumption too. Should be an easy enough call
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~Games are lost, games are won you'll find the strength to carry on~
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Dec 02,2011, 10:58 AM
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#10 | | Full PFC Member
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 182
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It is close, but I think it is a fold.
Villain probably has 87 maybe with 1 diamond and wants to take down the pot there or he has 44 and turned a set. I can't see villain jamming 77-1010 there given the over card unless villain has the a hand like 7d7x or 8d8x for a combo draw. If we are ahead, we are probably way ahead....I dunno, I think still it is a fold.
Either way, it is a very weird line by villain.
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Dec 02,2011, 03:37 PM
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#11 | | Full PFC Member
Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: BC
Posts: 115
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I'd call, the villain probably sucks at poker and has KQ. But I normally lose so don't listen to me.
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Dec 02,2011, 04:57 PM
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#12 | | Inhumano Forboon! |
this is kinda what you said villain could have mixed together and averaged against your hand....its not an answer but it can help...
Board: 6d 5d Qs
win
Hand 0: 58.626% { AdQh }
Hand 1: 41.374% { 66-55, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, QJs, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d,
8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d, 4d3d, 3d2d, AcKd, AdKc,
AdKh, AdKs, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd,
QcJd, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QhJd, QsJd }
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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.
Last edited by darbday; Dec 02,2011 at 04:59 PM.
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Dec 02,2011, 06:09 PM
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#13 | | Official pilot of CPF
Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: New Hamburg
Posts: 7,400
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Why are we stumped? Of course he has the flush.
If he's bluffing, whatever, nice hand.
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KEEP THE SAME VENUE FOR THE ROYAL CUP!
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Dec 02,2011, 06:22 PM
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#14 | | Full PFC Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,661
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Originally Posted by darbday this is kinda what you said villain could have mixed together and averaged against your hand....its not an answer but it can help...
Board: 6d 5d Qs
win
Hand 0: 58.626% { AdQh }
Hand 1: 41.374% { 66-55, KQs, KdJd, KdTd, QJs, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d,
8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d, 4d3d, 3d2d, AcKd, AdKc,
AdKh, AdKs, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd,
QcJd, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QhJd, QsJd } |
look at all this random data that doesn't actually help us <.<
__________________
~Games are lost, games are won you'll find the strength to carry on~
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Dec 04,2011, 11:06 AM
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#15 | | Inhumano Forboon! | Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard~ look at all this random data that doesn't actually help us <.< | tells us we are likely ahead....especially getting a good price on our money were prob happy to get it in...?
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I think I'll just get it in bad here and chalk it up to variance.
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