$5.20 Turbo DoN, bubble situation

TiMSuM · Dec 02,2008, 01:12 PM

PokerStars Game #22545156766: Tournament #124313125, $5.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600) - 2008/12/01 21:59:39 ET
Table '124313125 1' 10-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: sooner_mark (4160 in chips)
Seat 2: obesegringo (3050 in chips)
Seat 4: BIGACECHEEK (505 in chips)
Seat 5: Pippo09 (4390 in chips)
Seat 7: BigAceHole1 (1805 in chips)
Seat 9: TiMSuM (1090 in chips)
sooner_mark: posts the ante 60
obesegringo: posts the ante 60
BIGACECHEEK: posts the ante 60
Pippo09: posts the ante 60
BigAceHole1: posts the ante 60
TiMSuM: posts the ante 60
sooner_mark: posts small blind 300
obesegringo: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TiMSuM [Js Ad]
BIGACECHEEK: calls 445 and is all-in

This one boggled me. I'm on the button, with my stack and with the blinds I assume I have to push in 3 hands. Two big stacks on the blinds, UTG villain pushes. Range for him is pretty much any two, but narrowing down to 22+, any face, any ace. SB will most likely call the raise and BB already covers it.

What do I do? If he wins, I'm the short stacked but I have a good hand to contest along with the blinds.

DrTyore · Dec 02,2008, 01:18 PM

Call

You, the SB, and BB have a HUGE chance to put him out.

Mark

actyper · Dec 02,2008, 02:36 PM

I think I end up calling here as well and hope we all check it down.

TiMSuM · Dec 02,2008, 03:38 PM

Flat call which leaves me around 645 in chips or push?

actyper · Dec 02,2008, 04:12 PM

Flat call, as I don't mind the SB&BB coming in to triple team.

herschelw · Dec 03,2008, 03:07 AM

This is a must fold. You cant afford to call and then have someone behind you got nuts and shove. Everyone else will call and give you a really solid chance at busting him. Not need to risk your chips when the BB will automatically call.

pkrfce9 · Dec 03,2008, 07:43 AM

i am loathe to contradict someone who actually plays poker for a living, so i'll post my reasoning... (my numbers are arbitrary. feel free to dispute, accompanied by your reasoning of course)

your object here is to get into the money by having someone else bust first. your most likely pick to bust before you would have to be this guy. so how can you make it more likely for that to happen? to me the overriding factor is if shortie wins the hand, you are pretty much screwed. it seems to me the more people against shortie in the hand, the greater his chance for elimination.

if you fold, he is almost definitely up against SB and BB. at best, he would have maybe a 40-60% chance to more than triple up. he has to go through the blinds next and that will eat into his stack - advantage YOU. unfortunately he will still have a bigger stack than you and you can't last through the blinds - advantage HIM. so you most likely don't make the money unless YOU get the miracle triple up in the next couple hands. if you fold, i would guesstimate your chances at making the money at maybe 55%?

if you push, for sure you're getting called by BB, and most likely SB but not for sure. note: you don't have to win the hand but you have to be sure shortie doesn't in order for you to still get to the money. his chances would likely be smaller than the first scenario, maybe 35-45% at best. i would guesstimate your chances at making the money at maybe 60%?

if you call, i doubt one of the blinds would push behind you. that does not strike me as sound bubble play. so i'm going with the assumption SB and BB play along. this would give shortie the worst chance of all of survival, probably 25-35%. in other words, your best shot at making the money, possibly as high as 70%. if shortie wins the hand, you are screwed but you have a couple of hands to hope someone else screws up horribadly and you miraculously make the money.

it seems to me that pushing as compared to calling potentially increases his likelihood of survival and decreases yours. so i eliminate that option. between calling and folding, calling seems to be the option that gives you the best shot at making the money.

if your stack was bigger, say at least 2k so you could get through the blinds, i would agree that folding would be the better option here. but with a small stack (still bigger than the all-in shortie's) i think your best bet is to try to eliminate him by being in the hand.

actyper · Dec 03,2008, 08:56 AM

Players playing these double ups are the most tight passive i have ever seen. The chance of one of the blinds shoving here are close to zero, and would prob only do so with AA or KK.

pkrfce9 · Dec 03,2008, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actyper

and would prob only do so with AA or KK.

and that would be a huge mistake... not to say it wouldn't happen though

TiMSuM · Dec 03,2008, 10:06 AM

Pippo09: folds
BigAceHole1: folds
TiMSuM: raises 430 to 1030 and is all-in
sooner_mark: calls 730
obesegringo: calls 430
*** FLOP *** [Qh 9s Tc]
sooner_mark: checks
obesegringo: checks
*** TURN *** [Qh 9s Tc] [4c]
sooner_mark: checks
obesegringo: checks
*** RIVER *** [Qh 9s Tc 4c] [3h]
sooner_mark: checks
obesegringo: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
sooner_mark: shows [As Jc] (high card Ace)
obesegringo: shows [9c Kh] (a pair of Nines)
TiMSuM: mucks hand
obesegringo collected 1755 from side pot
BIGACECHEEK: shows [4h 4s] (three of a kind, Fours)
BIGACECHEEK collected 2140 from main pot

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkrfce9

if you fold, he is almost definitely up against SB and BB. at best, he would have maybe a 40-60% chance to more than triple up. he has to go through the blinds next and that will eat into his stack - advantage YOU. unfortunately he will still have a bigger stack than you and you can't last through the blinds - advantage HIM. so you most likely don't make the money unless YOU get the miracle triple up in the next couple hands. if you fold, i would guesstimate your chances at making the money at maybe 55%?

if you push, for sure you're getting called by BB, and most likely SB but not for sure. note: you don't have to win the hand but you have to be sure shortie doesn't in order for you to still get to the money. his chances would likely be smaller than the first scenario, maybe 35-45% at best. i would guesstimate your chances at making the money at maybe 60%?

I actually never thought of just flat calling. It was either a fold or push decision in my head. I didn't want to end up with just over 600 chips after calling and if I lose, I'd be pushing on any two. Since I had a good hand, I ended pushing and assumed SB and BB would come along for the ride, so if I, SB or BB won..I would've monied. All I had to avoid was the shortie winning.

But now after calculating stack sizes, folding would've been very plausible. If I folded and shortie won, he'd have ~1600 in chips. He'd be posting ~1000 in the next two hands before the blinds would hit me, and when they hit me, I would have ~900 left.

pkrfce9 · Dec 03,2008, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiMSuM

But now after calculating stack sizes, folding would've been very plausible. If I folded and shortie won, he'd have ~1600 in chips. He'd be posting ~1000 in the next two hands before the blinds would hit me, and when they hit me, I would have ~900 left.

here's where i think you are mistaken.

you fold and you have 1030 in chips.

small and big hit you, combined with antes leaves you broke. he still has a couple hundred in chips. => you lose

so if you fold (and he wins), you have to get extremely lucky in the next couple hands to survive but he can just sit back and watch you get torn apart.

Monteroy · Dec 03,2008, 10:52 AM

The results are as bad as they can get, but that does not change the fact that folding with your stack in this scenario is completely bad. You have a solid hand which probably is decent against the short stack, so either shoving or flat calling is fine, otherwise you leave it up to random cards to beat him, and if they do not then you are now the short stack.

The stack sizes are what make this choice a frustrating but obvious one. You HAVE to target the small stack with your also below average stack when the opportunity presents itself, think of it being like a divisional football game in the NFL which almost counts double in a way since it is key to tie breakers.

Same stacks if tiny guy folds and next guy with a decent stack shoves then a fold is a viable choice.

I did a post a while back on a satellite bubble situation when myself and one other player each had a much smaller stack then the other 4 players with one more elimination to come. I called his all in with A7 suited knowing that it was over one way or the other, and if I folded to him his stack would then be about 50% bigger then mine and I was in the deep stuff so to speak. I would not have called a large stack with the same hand.

DrTyore · Dec 03,2008, 10:55 AM

IMO the order of best moves to worst

Call - three way on the micro stack
Fold - wimpy move, I prefer calling and then calling another putting you all in anyways. Your goal is to minimize the short stack's chances of winning - and as someone said above, if either of the blinds have AA/KK and push, they're fucking stupid.
Raising - worst play here - again, your goal isn't to isolate, but to gang-bang

Mark

pkrfce9 · Dec 03,2008, 11:37 AM

so most of us are at odds with hershelw. i'd appreciate his feedback on the opposing view. are we destined to be long-term losers in these double or nothings?

herschelw · Dec 03,2008, 01:55 PM

One of the things I've loved about owning a training site is that there's a huge group of pros that I can now send hands to for feedback and analysis(as can our members through our forum). So I sent this one to our new low limit sng pro Mzungu(21,000 tournaments played, $14 abi, $50k winnings). Here's our conversation about the hand.

<DIV id=615 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"><FONT color=black><SPAN style="FONT: 12px Arial; COLOR: #0f0595"><FONT color=black>Mzungu