ev?

BlondeFish · Nov 14,2009, 06:46 PM

My "feel" was that calling with AA is automatic. However, after doing the math schmath, I am again reminded of how counter-intuitive poker is. Assuming a $1 (+ rake) 10-player SNG, if all ten players call, then the winner would get $5 for first place. What everybody has forgotten is that the nine losers would all be out at the same time so would have to split the remaining $5 in the prize pool, or 55.5¢ each.

$EV of calling = ~30% * $5 + 70% * ($5 / 9) = $1.50 + $0.39 = +$1.89.

$EV of folding AA = ~100% * $3 for 2nd place = +$3.
Even in the situation where there are two winners splitting the huge pot, you would still win at least third place, so your folding $EV of at least $2 is still higher than calling.

Therefore, in the extreme case of everybody going all-in in a SNG (that is non winner-take-all), if I was the last person to act, I would fold AA!

This would be similar to everybody going all-in in the WSOP Main Event final table and if I was a short stack like James Akenhead in the BB, I would fold AA to be assured of a higher prize.

OK, now that I've exercised my poker brain, it's time to drive out to Fallsview....

Quote:

Originally Posted by darbday

K everyones doing different numbers id like to assume a 50 30 20 payout....but who gets third for one thing? And i have aces as a 30% favorite in the first hand.

so Calling is 30% of 1st place?
and folding is 100% of 2nd no?

if payouts are 2 3 and 5 bux

.3 x 5 is 1.5 for calling and 3 for folding?

Milo · Nov 14,2009, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wetts1012

In after Milo math clarifies each play is breakeven.

Well, was there not a thread where you basically proved that AA all-in preflop was a 50/50 proposition?

Or am I misremembering?

800OVER · Nov 14,2009, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlondeFish

My "feel" was that calling with AA is automatic. However, after doing the math schmath, I am again reminded of how counter-intuitive poker is. Assuming a $1 (+ rake) 10-player SNG, if all ten players call, then the winner would get $5 for first place. What everybody has forgotten is that the nine losers would all be out at the same so would have to split the remaining $5 in the prize pool, or 55.5¢ each.

$EV of calling = ~30% * $5 + 70% * ($5 / 9) = $1.50 + $0.39 = +$1.89.

$EV of folding AA = ~100% * $3 for 2nd place = +$3.
Even in the situation where there are two winners splitting the huge pot, you would still win at least third place, so your folding $EV of at least $2 is still higher than calling.

Therefore, in the extreme case of everybody going all-in in a SNG (that is non winner-take-all), if I was the last person to act, I would fold AA!

This would be similar to everybody going all-in in the WSOP Main Event final table and if I was a short stack like James Akenhead in the BB, I would fold AA to be assured of a higher prize.

OK, now that I've exercised my poker brain, it's time to drive out to Fallsview....

Now that someone with poker credibility has agreed with me.......All y'all bitches better recognize!!!

800OVER · Nov 14,2009, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wetts1012

But think about the math you just provided ( I have no idea if its right)

)

and.....

Wetts1012 · Nov 14,2009, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 800OVER

and.....

This was my bad.

I thought the question was Is calling +EV, which simple math shows it is. Not what is the most EV play, which your probably right, in a standard payout structure SNG.

darbday · Nov 14,2009, 10:43 PM

i think i did the wsop 09 payouts and its close to 2.5 mill to call and just less than 5 mill or so to fold

maybe. but i guess this is an exercise in the importance of payout structure