Strange Bubble Spot

Monteroy · Feb 10,2009, 08:10 PM

Given the BBs stack I was not quite sure what to do given my stack, so I just shoved and hoped for the best and nearly got the worst outcome after the flop. The stack sizes made it quite awkward for me to play it any differently other then folding ( I guess I could have gone for the limp/check check plan).

I do know that if I was the 7500 stack I would shove any 2 vs a limper with my stack and a BB with 40 chips (though I don't think that player was capable of that move without a real hand).

Anyway, here is the hand

PokerStars Game #24807151517: Tournament #139940433, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/02/10 20:15:13 ET
Table '139940433 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 4: SS44 (7500 in chips)
Seat 5: Kiki2King (4695 in chips)
Seat 6: semael (40 in chips)
Seat 8: Monteroy (1265 in chips)
Kiki2King: posts small blind 75
semael: posts big blind 40 and is all-in
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Monteroy [Ac Kc]
Monteroy: raises 1190 to 1265 and is all-in
SS44: raises 6235 to 7500 and is all-in
Kiki2King: folds
Uncalled bet (6235) returned to SS44
*** FLOP *** [4c Qc 7d]
*** TURN *** [4c Qc 7d] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [4c Qc 7d Jc] [Ks]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Monteroy: shows [Ac Kc] (a flush, Ace high)
SS44: shows [5s 5h] (a pair of Fives)
Monteroy collected 2485 from side pot
semael: shows [7h Js] (two pair, Jacks and Sevens)
Monteroy collected 160 from main pot

Wetts1012 · Feb 11,2009, 07:31 AM

ICM is your friend. Cant check the exact numbers from here but you need to be like 80% preflop for shoving here to be +$EV. With AK even if you run it into a dominating situation (AQ) you're still only 70%.

This is a limp/check. Fold to a shove.

Monteroy · Feb 11,2009, 07:57 AM

That shows that a guy with 40 chips has a tiny expectations of winning. I kind of knew that.

What I cannot figure out from that stat is what a player with my awkward stack under the gun should do with AKc in that spot theoretically. I chose to shove since I had started out this week well for the BoP so a win mattered more then the calculations would show.

I fiddled with that ICM software a bit but I am not sure I used it properly as it seems to suggest I should shove utg even when I entered 6 9 o as my hand, but I may (and probably) used their software incorrectly.

How does one use this to see what hands one should have pushed with in this spot?

Edit: my first response was to your post which just included the EV numbers of each stack, your new post makes more sense.

This situation does create the awkward spot of limping then facing a shove by the big stack (which I know I woud do if I had 7500 chips).

Keep in mind the only really bad situation is a 3 way with the 40 chip stack winning the main pot and the big chipper winning the side pot. Though that almost happened here, I have to think the odds of that specific order of hands is quite a bit smaller.

My gut feel is that no calculator will completely capture this very strange situation perfectly.

Wetts1012 · Feb 11,2009, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monteroy

I fiddled with that ICM software a bit but I am not sure I used it properly as it seems to suggest I should shove utg even when I entered 6 9 o as my hand, but I may (and probably) used their software incorrectly.

This is the difference between cEV and $EV.

I have an old article saved by Jennifear linked below. For SNG theory I prefer these articles to (gasp!) Moshman. Not for quality, but for ease of reading.

Poker Articles - Advanced SNG bubble play using ICM

Wetts1012 · Feb 11,2009, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monteroy

This situation does create the awkward spot of limping then facing a shove by the big stack (which I know I woud do if I had 7500 chips)

This move would be correct. If you think villain has the same grasp of theory, this is a fold pre. (From a $EV standpoint).

If there is other point structures involved in winning, go crazy.

actyper · Feb 11,2009, 08:36 AM

I dunno, I really can't see how folding is at all possible in this situation with the small stack in the hand. I like the shove myself.

Wetts1012 · Feb 11,2009, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actyper

I dunno, I really can't see how folding is at all possible in this situation with the small stack in the hand. I like the shove myself.

For the sake of defining this, lets assume you are the bigstack and our hero shoves.

What range are you calling here.

Edit: reread the original, bigstack may have a tighter range for calling in this specific situation. You would still need to be pretty sure he is folding for this to be long run profitable.

actyper · Feb 11,2009, 10:50 AM

But why would you want him to fold? If he beats you, pretty good chance he beats the short stack as well.

DennisG · Feb 11,2009, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by actyper

But why would you want him to fold? If he beats you, pretty good chance he beats the short stack as well.

This was actually my first thought as well...

Wetts1012 · Feb 11,2009, 02:53 PM

Just got home and actually ran this - and it's not as bad as I originally thought.

Hero is going out in 4th 6.6% of the time, assuming the bigstack calls and you face 2 random hands, where shortstack > bigstack > hero.