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Old Jun 15,2009, 12:36 PM   #1
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Calling Odds With Bottom Pair

Something that keeps popping up lately playing ring games. I've been playing .10/.25 and increasing my roll at a decent rate (decent = not losing) and keep running in to a similar situation.

I'm the sb or bb, someone makes it 3xbb from mp and gets one caller from lp. I'll have something somewhat ridiculous like K8s or a low connector like 56. Flop will come and I'll hit bottom pair. I check, initial raiser will bet out, either same as pf or 5-6xbb. lp calls and I fold. It may just be variance, but lately, 8 out of 10 times that turn is hitting my two pair or trips, and the action explodes.

Is this a flaw in my game that I should be changing? Am I being too predictable or is this a reasonable spot to be folding in? Are the odds justified to call to the turn (and I know that's a loaded question because the implied odds depend greatly on what type of player I'm up against, not to mention the possibility I can make them fold should a card that looks scary hit)?
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Old Jun 15,2009, 12:43 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerberus View Post

Is this a flaw in my game that I should be changing?
Yes...calling out of position with K8s or low connecting cards

What you're seeing is just variance. If you were to chart it, you would find that you miss A LOT more than you would have hit.

Still, I don't mind defending in SB or BB with such cards IF
-bettor is known to be very loose aggressive
-caller is a calling station
-both have stacks at LEAST 20x the original bet and so do I

That way, if I did call, and I did hit nicely, I could move forward with the hand on the implied odds from both players. Can be extremely profitable.

Otherwise, if I missed or hit too light (like bottom pair on the flop), I'll fold.
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Old Jun 15,2009, 12:53 PM   #3
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Pretty much exactly my thinking, as I'm only calling when they've got a lot behind them and are known to be unable to fold 2nd pair or A high. And I definitely consider bottom pair as hitting too light lol
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Old Jun 15,2009, 03:00 PM   #4
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It's fine to call a bet into 2 players with bottom pair if they have appropriate stacks and you feel that you can stack them with 2 pair. Realize your odds of hitting your 5 outs are roughly 10% and if you feel that you will get paid-off appropriately call the flop bet. In NL it is never wrong to defend you BB if the stacks are deep enough and you play well after the flop.
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Old Jun 15,2009, 04:07 PM   #5
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Cool

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cerberus View Post
Something that keeps popping up lately playing ring games. I've been playing .10/.25 and increasing my roll at a decent rate (decent = not losing) and keep running in to a similar situation.

I'm the sb or bb, someone makes it 3xbb from mp and gets one caller from lp. I'll have something somewhat ridiculous like K8s or a low connector like 56. Flop will come and I'll hit bottom pair. I check, initial raiser will bet out, either same as pf or 5-6xbb. lp calls and I fold. It may just be variance, but lately, 8 out of 10 times that turn is hitting my two pair or trips, and the action explodes.

Is this a flaw in my game that I should be changing? Am I being too predictable or is this a reasonable spot to be folding in? Are the odds justified to call to the turn (and I know that's a loaded question because the implied odds depend greatly on what type of player I'm up against, not to mention the possibility I can make them fold should a card that looks scary hit)?

You should print this an frame this. I think it is probably the smartest thing you have ever said :-)
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Old Jun 15,2009, 10:11 PM   #6
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You should print this an frame this. I think it is probably the smartest thing you have ever said :-)
No, I think the smartest thing I ever said was "Mom, can we sell Steve to the gypsies?"
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