harthgosh

OK

so i have been grinding my butt off on party 6 handed.Â* so far so good after 3k hands up 7bb/100.

Anyways, I was studying all my hands to see if i was always playin the odds right on every hand to maybe plug some leaks.Â* Now, Im no math major (grade 11 intro is as far as i got, although i hit my one outter and got an A- in Stat 203 at UBC), and I smoke waaay to much pot, so it makes sense that im confused.Â* Â*I guess I have always taken the math in poker for granted a bit.Â*

Here is my problem:Â* on the flop, lets say one has 9 outs.Â* I thought this was 5-1 to hit by the next card (47/9), however tracker says its 4.2-1.Â* Â* Am I supposed to count the other way, the misses?Â* I dunno.Â* Why is tracker saying this?
Someone explain this to me please!

Also does anyone have a good poker related math book recommendation so I dont have embarrasing moments of off-math in the future?

THanks!

MickeyHoldem

After the flop, you know the cards that you hold and the flop, so there are 47 unknown cards.... if you have 9 outs then there are 38 non-outs.... therefore the ratio is 38 to 9 or ~4.22 to 1 .... poker tracker is right.

If you knew you were drawing 9 outs from 45 cards.... the probability would be 1 in 5, but this does not convert to 5 to 1 odds... this would be 4 to 1 odds.... for pot odds calculations try and compare non-outs to actual outs.

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harthgosh

thanks

the math is the weakest part of my game.

i appreciate it!

ScottyZ

The trick with odds (against) compared to probability is to think of them as:

Probability = Good outcomes / All outcomes

Odds = Bad outcomes / Good outcomes

If you work out the probability of an event to be x/y, then the odds against this event are (y-x) / x

Usually people find one or the other to me more intuitive, so stick with the one which is most natural for you. I personally usually think in probabilities. That is, when someone tells me odds of 2-1, I usually think of it as 1/3 or 33%.

Almost all beginner level books cover the basics of computing odds (pot odds, etc). For example, Lee Jones has a nice explanation how to calculate pot odds in the beginning sections of WLLH.

ScottyZ

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harthgosh

i dont know wats happened to my brain.

Zithal

Don't you live in Amsterdam now :P

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AdamQ

Easy trick i use thats PRETTY accurate.

After flop, figure out your outs. Multiply that by 4. Thats your % chance to hit your outs. Ex. Flush draw. 9 Out, 9x4, 37%.. or approx a third of the time (2:1). Its not PERFECT, i believe that actual percentage is 36.4, but as you see, its a good quick easy way.

If turn comes up blank, then do the same calculation, but the multiplyer is 2.

wader

Im going to take Adams post a little further.

Example #1
Flush Draw = 9 outs
If you have 1 card to come you times it by 2......... 9x2=18
You then divide 18 by 100 which is roughly 5 (i round it off for easy calc.) and subtract 1 which is 4. So your a 4:1 dog to hit.

Example #2
Two over cards=6 outs
If you have 2 cards to come you times it by 4..........6x4=24
You then divide 24 by 100 which is roughly 4 and subtract 1 which is 3. So you are a 3:1 dog to hit

Wader

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Graham

It's my understanding that this formula will get you your percentage within 1% of Caro's odds chart over 90% of the time.

stoneskn

There is a reason I don't like using the 4-2 rule for finding percentage chance to make my (your) hand with 2 cards or 1 card to come. The reason is because there is more betting on 4th street; if there weren't, I'd always use the 4-2 rule to figure out my percentage chance to make my hand on the turn *OR* the river. There almost always is betting after 4th street (and on the river) that makes using the rule less valuable.

Unless you are all-in. If you are in on the flop, then you can see the turn and river for one price. Then i'd multiply my outs by four to get percentage chance to hit.

I use the 4-2 rule to calculate pot equity on the flop. E.g. I have nut flush draw on the flop, the board isn't paired. I calculate 9 outs to hit my flush, maybe 1.5 or 2 to hit my ace, if I feel its strong, gives me 11 outs, times four = 44% pot equity. if there are 3 players (two opponents and me) on the flop, I am contributing 33% of all the bets and raises. I can expect to win more than 35% of the whole pot by the river, so I am making money with all bets and raises. (be careful that someone could have hit a set on the flop, making your flush draw weaker than usual)

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wader

Exactly
Most of the time you should be multiplying by 2

Wader

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