I'm playing in a 24 player deep stack tournament, all players start with 10K in chips.Â*
Blinds are currently 50/100
UTG Limps
UTG +1 limps
MP raises to 500
I just call with black JJ in MP
One more player calls the 500 after some thought
Folded back around to the UTG limper, she folds.
UTG+1 calls the extra 400
So, 4 players in for 500 each and an extra 250 of dead money sitting in the pot.Â* Total pot at this point is 2250.
Flop comes downÂ* Â* Â* Â* Â* Â*
UTG+1 fires out 1100. Pot 3350.
Original raiser folds
My read on the UTG is that he is drawing.Â* He would have raised with 10's or 8's preflop.Â* Possibly a set of 3's but I highly doubt it as he wouldn't fire out so much without letting the aggressive Preflop raiser make a continuation bet.Â*
I re-raise to 3000. Pot 6350.
LP folds
UTG+1 calls without a lot of hesitation.Â* Pot 8250.
Turn card is aÂ* Â*
UTG+1 goes all in
I fold
UTG+1 showsÂ* Â*Â* Â* Â*for the straight
Now, a couple of questions.Â* Do I bet more or less on the flop when figuring my opponent on a draw?Â* Please state your reasons.Â*
Did my opponent have odds to call my flop bet?
How would you have played this differently if you were in my shoes or my opponents shoes?Â*
I ask these questions because I've played with this player several times and I'm trying to get more of an idea of how he plays and basically what box I can put him in...
Thanks for the comments in advance.
stp
__________________
I typically bet that my luck is better than your skill.
I'm playing in a 24 player deep stack tournament, all players start with 10K in chips.Â*
Actually a 25-player tourney... what was the host thinking, eh
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpboy
Blinds are currently 50/100
UTG Limps
UTG +1 limps
MP raises to 500
I just call with black JJ in MP
I like the call here, it hides your hand really well => you can get yourself paid off if you flop a monster.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpboy
One more player calls the 500 after some thought
Folded back around to the UTG limper, she folds.
UTG+1 calls the extra 400
So, 4 players in for 500 each and an extra 250 of dead money sitting in the pot.Â* Total pot at this point is 2250.
Flop comes downÂ* Â* Â* Â* Â* Â*
UTG+1 fires out 1100.Â* Pot 3350.
Original raiser folds
My read on the UTG is that he is drawing.Â* He would have raised with 10's or 8's preflop.Â* Possibly a set of 3's but I highly doubt it as he wouldn't fire out so much without letting the aggressive Preflop raiser make a continuation bet.Â*
I completely agree with this read (no way of knowing whether its the flush or straight draw though, for your sake, hopefully not both).
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpboy
I re-raise to 3000.Â* Pot 6350.
LP folds
UTG+1 calls without a lot of hesitation.Â* Pot 8250.
Turn card is aÂ* Â*
UTG+1 goes all in
I fold
I think this is a good fold here.Â* Dirty... err I mean UTG+1, could just be making a move here, but not worth all of your chips to find out.Â* I would be very suspicious of it being a move because looking at it from UTG+1's point of view, I would have put you on A10.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpboy
UTG+1 showsÂ* Â*Â* Â* Â*for the straight
Now, a couple of questions.Â* Do I bet more or less on the flop when figuring my opponent on a draw?Â* Please state your reasons.Â*
Did my opponent have odds to call my flop bet?
How would you have played this differently if you were in my shoes or my opponents shoes?Â*
I think 1900 more on top of 1100 into a pot of 6350 is not enough to chase a drawing hand out.Â* He definitely had odds to call, especially if he puts you on A10 as I would have = 8 open-ended outs + 3 jacks.Â* If he was really confident in you being on A10 he could have planned a Stop&Go move on the turn if any scare card came down (any K, Q, J, 8, or any club = ~22 of the 45 unknown cards).
I think the most aggressive move you could have made here is to flat call.Â* With another player still to act before it gets back to the UTG+1 bettor, flat calling shows a lot of strength.Â* The next most aggressive move would have been to push, but this would have shown weakness, IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpboy
I ask these questions because I've played with this player several times and I'm trying to get more of an idea of how he plays and basically what box I can put him in...
Thanks for the comments in advance.
stp
But don't listen to me... I WAS FIRST OUT OF THIS TOURNEY!!!
I think you should reriase preflop. Normally flat calling is good but here you would like to chase the limpers out, and the chips are plenty deep that a reraise doesn't commit you to the hand or anything. On the flop I think a flat call or a bigger reraise is in order. If you put him on a draw then price him out on the flop or wait until the turn when a safe card hits and then do it if you're not completely sure about your read. His call was marginal but he can bluff at the clubs and possibly other scare cards and he has implied odds so it wasn't bad. However, fwiw, I think his flop bet was a very poor play.
I agree with this. JJ is a hand that I do not particularly enjoy show playing. Sure it's hidden, but it's not 100% powerful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirWatts
On the flop I think a flat call or a bigger reraise is in order. If you put him on a draw then price him out on the flop or wait until the turn when a safe card hits and then do it if you're not completely sure about your read. His call was marginal but he can bluff at the clubs and possibly other scare cards and he has implied odds so it wasn't bad.
Again I agree, I don't think I was getting that poor odds, and many people I've spoken with have agreed. Just to clarify, pre-flop the pot was about $2300, I bet $1200 at it on the flop, and stpboy raised to $3100, making it a call of $1900 into a pot of $6600.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirWatts
However, fwiw, I think his flop bet was a very poor play.
Can I ask why? I thought it was a decent probe bet to possibly win it then and there, and any raise would have to be quite large to make the odds go against me. I was (I'm fairly sure) chip lead at the table at that point, and the pot was worth taking then if I could.
Anyways... yes, it was the dirty one in the hand with stpboy, and yes, I "sucked out" again....
Though, i have to admit, it kinda warms the heart to see so many of our hands posted.... ahh memories.
Mark
__________________
Life's usually simple, just not always easy
I thought it was a decent probe bet to possibly win it then and there, and any raise would have to be quite large to make the odds go against me.
What were the stack sizes? It seems like a fairly hefty "probe bet" (half the pot) with a fairly speculative hand. If the original bettor has an overpair, you've just succeeded in dumping chips into the pot, only to get pushed off your draw with a big raise. Your relative postion is good vs. the pf raiser with him on your left, and if you allow him to bet, and if he gets any action, you might be getting a good price on your draw when it comes back around (being last to act). I guess it depends on stack sizes and reads, but I like that bet a lot more with a monster than as a semi-bluff in this spot.
I have to agree that it was a marginal call by the "mystery" player. I think only an all-in re-raise would have priced him out.
I don't hate the bet on the flop. It was an attempt to buy it. He had the chips to do so. I think the extra 1900 wasn't enough to hurt him so the call was marginal but almost understandable depending on what he thought you had. If he had you on an overpair than it is a terrible call. If he had you on trips it is a terrible call. If he has you on over cards and an attempt to re-steal, then it is a good call. But only he can say. And I'll bet he'll lie about it now, that Dirty Whore.
I thought it was a decent probe bet to possibly win it then and there, and any raise would have to be quite large to make the odds go against me.
What were the stack sizes?Â* It seems like a fairly hefty "probe bet" (half the pot) with a fairly speculative hand.Â* If the original bettor has an overpair, you've just succeeded in dumping chips into the pot, only to get pushed off your draw with a big raise. Your relative postion is good vs. the pf raiser with him on your left, and if you allow him to bet, and if he gets any action, you might be getting a good price on your draw when it comes back around (being last to act).Â* I guess it depends on stack sizes and reads, but I like that bet a lot more with a monster than as a semi-bluff in this spot.Â*
Deepstack tournament, everyone started with 10k, and I was (I think) at about 14-17 k. And quite frankly, I didn't want other people in that pot, I was hoping to take it then and there, but I was really only worried about someone with 2 clubs, and someone with the higher straight draw after the turn. Stpboy is perfectly able to attempt a steal from his position, and he like to push me around a lot. He's mean, not baby-eater mean, but mean sometimes.
Flintbones: To be honest, I had very little to put stpboy on, he had called pre-flop, he may have had A-10 as G2 said, he may have had an overpair (which he ended up having). However, once again, 1900 call into a pot of 6,600? Just under 4:1, and I had plenty of chips.
Mark
__________________
Life's usually simple, just not always easy
Flintbones: To be honest, I had very little to put stpboy on, he had called pre-flop, he may have had A-10 as G2 said, he may have had an overpair (which he ended up having). However, once again, 1900 call into a pot of 6,600? Just under 4:1, and I had plenty of chips
That's why I don't blame you for calling. It is not a great call but I understand why. In the same situation I may have done the dame thing, however, I would probably never made the probe bet. But I am weak-tight. My bets always mean I have something. ALWAYS. Remember that on Saturday.
A few more comments about the hand. Â*Watts, you said I should have raised preflop. Â*I think you've seen to many hands where I've been busted with JJ when raising preflop just to lose to AK. Â*I didn't want to race when the chips were that deep. Â*The original raiser "ComicBook Dave" had AK. Â*
As far as Mark having odds to call. Â*I wonder about this. Â*If Mark did not have me on a hand, he could have put me on anything from A10, JJ, QQ, set of 10's, set of 8's, A3c, AJc, KQc J9c ...something in that range. Â*Mark was drawing at the worst draw out there...well not the worst draw but close to it (79) being the worst. Â*Any club drops and Mark needs to really re-evaluate his hand. Â*With me holding the Jc I would have represented it or checked and drawn to the flush. Â*
Anyway, this gives Mark 6 outs not 8 or ten. Â*I also thought that drawing to a straight was 1 in 5, not 1 in 3. Â*Mark has 1900 into 6600, he needs the pot to be 9500 for him to draw to the straight and this is if he is exactly putting me on one pair with no clubs. Â*Perhaps I'm worng, I'm not the greatest Odds man. Â*Please correct me.
stp
__________________
I typically bet that my luck is better than your skill.
Odds are effectively 5:1 for each the turn and river, so yea... I do have to consider your betting on the turn, which I didn't really take into account (I'm not the best odds man either.. hence the 7-8). But, taking both into account, it's 2.18:1
Mark
__________________
Life's usually simple, just not always easy
Why I don't like the bet: You are leading into 3 players, including the preflop raiser who is very aggressive and has shown strength by making a decent raise behind 2 limpers. If he has an overpair (not that unlikely) you are just giving him your money because he's going to raise big. Also there are 2 clubs so you may get called by a flush draw. All in all your chances of winning the pot right here are not very good. Finally this bet looks like a draw on that board, and Shannon read that correctly. I think you should just check and hope it's not too big a bet coming back to you. If it is then you can just fold, no harm done.
A few more comments about the hand. Watts, you said I should have raised preflop. I think you've seen to many hands where I've been busted with JJ when raising preflop just to lose to AK. I didn't want to race when the chips were that deep. The original raiser "ComicBook Dave" had AK.
Big Catch-22 here I think. Being re-reraised holding JJ isn't a great thing, but neither is letting in more possible over cards. I have to agree though that re-raising here seems like the better play because you're giving yourself an extra way to win. Flopping the best hand, or making your opponent believe you've flopped the best hand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpboy
With me holding the Jc I would have represented it or checked and drawn to the flush.
Anyway, this gives Mark 6 outs not 8 or ten. I also thought that drawing to a straight was 1 in 5, not 1 in 3. Mark has 1900 into 6600, he needs the pot to be 9500 for him to draw to the straight and this is if he is exactly putting me on one pair with no clubs. Perhaps I'm worng, I'm not the greatest Odds man. Please correct me.
The usual convention is to count the clubs here that make your straight as half outs. I think he also has to count his remaining jacks as a possible out. So that gives 7 outs for the straight and, let's say conservatively 1 out for the Jacks. 8 outs with 47 cards left is 8:39 ~ 1 : 4.8 and the pot's giving him 1-3.5, so he mathematically doesn't have the odds to call the bet for the next card.
Of course, if he believe he'll get to see the river for free, it's a correct call, or if he thinks he's getting implied odds by making the call then it becomes a much closer choice.
__________________
KWLT Fundraising BBQ and -EV Poker Day!! - Sat. Sept 15th
I think the most important aspect of this call is that Mark can represent the flush if a club hits and it will be hard for Shannon not to believe him. As such he almost has 15 outs, 8 real outs and 7 cards that will let him make a very profitable bluff.
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