Most Common Flop

GordenGrecko · Aug 22,2006, 09:45 AM

I was watching PNL the other night and seem to remember a conversation about the most common flop. Supposedly the most common you will find is AJ2. Anyone else hear that?

Flint Bones · Aug 22,2006, 10:04 AM

I am not a math genius but I don't think a common flop with random cards is possible.

GTA Poker · Aug 22,2006, 10:13 AM

lol

all_aces · Aug 22,2006, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flint Bones

I am not a math genius but I don't think a common flop with random cards is possible.

Ayup.

sstar · Aug 22,2006, 10:23 AM

Odds of flopping THREE SPECIFIC CARDS...16 599 to 1

AcidJoe · Aug 22,2006, 10:24 AM

The most common flop (usually after I fold) is 2 of my high cards and one of my low cards. Â*But maybe that's just me. Â*

ChrisWinsor · Aug 22,2006, 12:22 PM

here's an odds quesiton. What are the odds that the board will pair in any given hand, as well as the odds for having three cards of the same suite in any given hand?

GordenGrecko · Aug 22,2006, 12:40 PM

I'm not a believer but it was just what I heard while watching PNL, did anyone else see that episode?

ScottyZ · Aug 22,2006, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GordenGrecko

I was watching PNL the other night and seem to remember a conversation about the most common flop. Supposedly the most common you will find is AJ2. Anyone else hear that?

Although I doubt this is a serious comment, an unpaired flop is most common, if that's what was meant by this.

However, the exact flop AJ2 is less likely than the exact flop 432 since more flops are seen when a lot of Aces and Jacks are in players' hole cards compared to when a lot of 3's and 4's are in players' hole cards.

Quote:

Odds of flopping THREE SPECIFIC CARDS...16 599 to 1

Not so, since the pre-flop play determines whether or not a flop is seen. This general idea is a major oversight in many of the "site X is rigged" analyses. Past plays affect the probibility distribution of future dealt cards.

For example, the exact flop Ah As Ad is less likely than 2h 2s 2d

Besides, the odds against 3 exact cards being chosen from a well-shuffled deck are 22,099 to 1.

Along the same vein, this

Quote:

here's an odds quesiton. What are the odds that the board will pair in any given hand, as well as the odds for having three cards of the same suite in any given hand?

is impossible (or at least, exceptionally difficult) to calculate, since the pre-flop play affects the distribution of the cards that appear on the flop.

ScottyZ

ChrisWinsor · Aug 22,2006, 01:00 PM

I mean regardless of pre flop cards.

ScottyZ · Aug 22,2006, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisWinsor

I mean regardless of pre flop cards.

This is then easy to compute using elementary probability, but meaningless in application to poker. Flops are related to the pre-flop cards that were dealt.

The calculations (or Googling the answers) are left as an exercise to the reader.

ScottyZ

all_aces · Aug 22,2006, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GordenGrecko

I'm not a believer but it was just what I heard while watching PNL, did anyone else see that episode?

I saw that episode... I was on it!

Johnny said that he heard that AJ2 was the most common flop and asked me if I'd heard anything about it.Â* I couldn't determine whether or not he was serious, so I said very little.Â* There was a part of me that thought he meant unpaired flops being more common than paired flops, and there was a part of me that thought he was kidding, but since I couldn't tell, I think we just moved on to something else.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottyZ

Quote:

Originally Posted by GordenGrecko

I was watching PNL the other night and seem to remember a conversation about the most common flop. Supposedly the most common you will find is AJ2. Anyone else hear that?

Although I doubt this is a serious comment, an unpaired flop is most common, if that's what was meant by this.

However, the exact flop AJ2 is less likely than the exact flop 432 since more flops are seen when a lot of Aces and Jacks are in players' hole cards compared to when a lot of 3's and 4's are in players' hole cards.

Quote:

Odds of flopping THREE SPECIFIC CARDS...16 599 to 1

Not so, since the pre-flop play determines whether or not a flop is seen. This general idea is a major oversight in many of the "site X is rigged" analyses. Past plays affect the probibility distribution of future dealt cards.

For example, the exact flop Ah As Ad is less likely than 2h 2s 2d

Besides, the odds against 3 exact cards being chosen from a well-shuffled deck are 22,099 to 1.

Along the same vein, this

Quote:

here's an odds quesiton. What are the odds that the board will pair in any given hand, as well as the odds for having three cards of the same suite in any given hand?

is impossible (or at least, exceptionally difficult) to calculate, since the pre-flop play affects the distribution of the cards that appear on the flop.

ScottyZ

What he said.

GTA Poker · Aug 22,2006, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by all_aces

Quote:

Originally Posted by GordenGrecko

I'm not a believer but it was just what I heard while watching PNL, did anyone else see that episode?

I saw that episode... I was on it!

Johnny said that he heard that AJ2 was the most common flop and asked me if I'd heard anything about it. I couldn't determine whether or not he was serious, so I said very little. There was a part of me that thought he meant unpaired flops being more common than paired flops, and there was a part of me that thought he was kidding, but since I couldn't tell, I think we just moved on to something else.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottyZ

Quote:

Originally Posted by GordenGrecko

I was watching PNL the other night and seem to remember a conversation about the most common flop. Supposedly the most common you will find is AJ2. Anyone else hear that?

Although I doubt this is a serious comment, an unpaired flop is most common, if that's what was meant by this.

However, the exact flop AJ2 is less likely than the exact flop 432 since more flops are seen when a lot of Aces and Jacks are in players' hole cards compared to when a lot of 3's and 4's are in players' hole cards.

Quote:

Odds of flopping THREE SPECIFIC CARDS...16 599 to 1

Not so, since the pre-flop play determines whether or not a flop is seen. This general idea is a major oversight in many of the "site X is rigged" analyses. Past plays affect the probibility distribution of future dealt cards.

For example, the exact flop Ah As Ad is less likely than 2h 2s 2d

Besides, the odds against 3 exact cards being chosen from a well-shuffled deck are 22,099 to 1.

Along the same vein, this

Quote:

here's an odds quesiton. What are the odds that the board will pair in any given hand, as well as the odds for having three cards of the same suite in any given hand?

is impossible (or at least, exceptionally difficult) to calculate, since the pre-flop play affects the distribution of the cards that appear on the flop.

ScottyZ

What he said.

Damn you Devo, I was just going to play the"guess who was hosting when this was said" game. I could no longer resist.

JT can make you speechless at times, no?

all_aces · Aug 22,2006, 10:02 PM

LOL... NO that's not what I was saying. I just didn't understand the question, so I couldn't answer it. Who knows how or if he meant it.

doctorbs · Aug 22,2006, 10:11 PM

The odds of having 3 cards on the flop is 100%, give or take 0%.