NL Cash Game hand analysis

kalozdi · Mar 24,2005, 09:23 AM

Very good 1/2 NL cash game – six handed

Utg limps ($200+) Utg+1 ($200+) limps two folds I complete in the small blind ( $150) with 98D BB (300+) checks - flop comes out 3D 10D 7C a pretty good flop for me. I check BB bets $7 UTG folds and UTG+1 calls and I raise to $20. I have a real tight image and check raise for that amount is usually going to take down the pot based on previous hands I have played. I was surprised when the BB and UTG+1 called, turn is a blank and I am first to act.

What is your move?

ScottyZ · Mar 24,2005, 09:45 AM

Check.

At this point, unless the opponents are wackos, I think I'm in big trouble.

The BB has indicated that he has something at least reasonable. If his flop open was just an attempt to pick up the pot on a raggy flop, he does not call the extra $13. Also, since your impression is that your opponents are folding too much against you for these kinds of check-raises, the BB calling here may even indicate more strength than usual.

The UTG+1 worries me more even though he merely called all bets so far. This probably indicates (unless the UTG+1 is some kind of calling station) that he either has a very big hand (i.e. a flopped set) or a drawing hand, a flush draw higher than yours being the most likely candidate for the latter.

If I was offered a decent price to chase the nut straight draw on the turn, I would do so. However, I'd be very leery if I made my flush, and I'd have to keep in mind that the UTG+1 may have me in deep doo-doo. If a diamond does come off, I may be facing a dangerous redraw, or already be drawing dead.

ScottyZ

kalozdi · Mar 24,2005, 11:00 AM

Thanks for the reply Scotty!

here's how the hand played out; I checked BB Checked and UTG+1 bet $60 and I went into the tank and after awhile I mucked so did BB and UTG+1 took it down and showed two pair.

My thinking was similar to Scotty's especially since there we a third player involved in the hand. I figured my diamond draw might no be good and it would of been a mistake to continue.

BBC Z · Mar 24,2005, 12:12 PM

Quote:

here's how the hand played out; I checked BB Checked and UTG+1 bet $60 and I went into the tank and after awhile I mucked so did BB and UTG+1 took it down and showed two pair.

Curious.. Isnt the $60 bet less than the size of the current pot? With 1 card to come, you have 15 outs.. About 34% equity in this hand.. I think it's safe to assume that someone will call an all-in on the river (the hands seem strong enough)...

So the pots $65 on the turn.. and you are looking at a final river pot of atleast $185 and maybe even $300.. about 3 to 1 at worst or 5 to 1 at best assuming BB came along...

It seems marginally profitable to continue.. *

* I'm not an NL player to take anything I say with a grain of salt.

SirWatts · Mar 24,2005, 01:21 PM

If the BB could have folded before him you'd be absolutely right BBC. But if you call and the BB has a a bigger flush draw as Scotty mentioned was a good possibility then he's going to call and you're going to be in a lot of trouble. I think folding is the safe and correct play.

BBC Z · Mar 24,2005, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirWatts

If the BB could have folded before him you'd be absolutely right BBC. But if you call and the BB has a a bigger flush draw as Scotty mentioned was a good possibility then he's going to call and you're going to be in a lot of trouble. I think folding is the safe and correct play.

When the BB stays in, you've got enough odds to stay just based on the straight draw..

Anyway, I dont think I like the automatic assumption that the BB is also on a flush draw. If you are both on flush draws, the most likely outcome is that you both miss..

SirWatts · Mar 24,2005, 02:30 PM

Fair enough, but if he does have a fliush draw you are drawing to 6 outs and you're only getting about 3-1, even assuming you double your $70 from the guy with 2 pair that only makes you slightly better than 4-1 on a 1 in 7 shot. Also if you make the flush you are not going to be able to fold it for your last $70 into that monster pot, so you must consider reverse implied odds. So you don't have odds to draw at the straight. You don't know where you stand here so why risk your whole stack. Also the BB could come to life with a raise if he's been slowplaying something, though I'd tend to think that's unlikely on such a scary board. It seems to me that there's just too much that could go wrong. You don't know where you stand, you're not getting amazing odds, so why risk losing everything.