point to ponder

Onadar · Apr 13,2007, 10:44 PM

hey everyone,

i read and reread about bad beats all the time. cracked my aces seems to be a favorite one for alot of posts. from what i can find on the subject pocket aces are only favored 80% to win with only only caller and really lose value with each caller after that. so what the odds tell us is that when you have played AA 100 times on average you will have lost 20 hands. so i guess if you think about it next time your aces get cracked, pull the old "forest gump" well i guess thats just one less to worry about. now you are 80/19.

ScoobyD · Apr 14,2007, 02:59 AM

f

Quote:

rom what i can find on the subject pocket aces are only favored 80% to win with only only caller and really lose value with each caller after that.

Wrong. Explain how aces lose value with more callers... I can't believe it's another pot equity 101 post. Sheesh. Sorry, I be quasi-semi-drunk as I post this...

Onadar · Apr 14,2007, 12:13 PM

hey everyone,

well from the strategy sites i have been reading, you raise to ISOLATE opponents because it is a heads up hand. with every player that calls you have more chances to lose to a straight, flush, 2 pair even. that is EVERY site i have been on so far. it wasn't a pot equity post, i just wanted new players to realize that AA is not going to win each and every hand it goes up against.
Average Winning Percentage (out of 100) with PairsCARDS
# of Opponents
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
AA
85
73
64
56
49
43
39
31
KK
82
69
58
50
43
38
33
29
QQ
80
65
54
45
38
33
28
25
JJ
78
61
49
40
34
29
25
22
1010
75
58
45
36
30
25
22
19
99
72
54
41
33
26
22
19
17
88
69
50
38
29
24
20
18
16
77
66
46
34
26
21
19
16
15
66
63
43
32
25
20
17
15
14
55
60
40
29
22
19
16
14
13
44
57
37
25
21
17
15
14
13
33
54
34
24
19
16
15
14
13
22
50
31
22
18
16
14
13
13

at least this fella thinks i am right, apparently i was wrong though AA wins heads up 85% of the time.

Onadar · Apr 17,2007, 03:40 PM

hey everyone,

i know you are not supposed to answer your own posts, so you can remove my points for this one. i did not realize the graph would screwup when i posted it. i link is from another site not affiliated with this forum so i could not just post the link. basically just put a 1 and highest number and 8 at lowers and thats the odds for that many players in each hand. i never use it, well just as a referance, for apparently being called stupid.

g2 · Apr 17,2007, 04:06 PM

I'm not calling you stupid or anything, just curious... what use is a chart for knowing how often AA (or any pair for that matter) wins against X players?

/g2

Onadar · Apr 17,2007, 06:21 PM

hey everyone,

i quoted something that i had read from a certain website and got called on the information. i just tried to post the chart. all i originally said was AA isn't going to win all the time. preflop is the only time it is the ONLY best hand out there. even preflop against say 8 callers it isn't as good and heads up. it's just something i never thought about or realized. like today i had the choice of 2 seats at a table, just sat down. guy on my left raised like a madman, if i had sat on his left somewhere he would not have gotten to see that i had just wanted to call that and not raise. sit on the left of the big pot at the table is something i had never thought of until today.

pokerJAH · Apr 17,2007, 07:05 PM

better to play aces with less callers, agreed. 19/80, don't know if I agree. Every hand played is independant of the other. You have 1/220 chances to get AA each hand. Its not dependant on the last time you had aces. If you are playing in a cash game, slow playing AA is some times a good strategy so you hope to hit another ace and it is well disguised.

Onadar · Apr 17,2007, 09:34 PM

hey everyone,

slow played my trip aces right into a 10 3s flush i got so clever today. gotta keep watching that board. i did ok though i got 2 players all-in for $5 each. beat a A10s spades and AJs clubs, got all red flop and no aces came off, took it down with pocket QQ's. figures my least favorite site and i keep winning.

ScoobyD · Apr 18,2007, 01:57 PM

Quote:

preflop is the only time it is the ONLY best hand out there. even preflop against say 8 callers it isn't as good and heads up.

I would love to live in a world where I get 8 cold callers when I raise AA UTG.

Onadar · Apr 18,2007, 03:22 PM

play a freeroll anytime of the day your sure to see it eventually

moose · Apr 19,2007, 12:35 AM

Do the math. If you are allin against one opponent and lets say stack sizes are $1 each for simplicity.

Against one opponent you win his buck 85% of the time for $0.85
Against 8 opponents you win 8 bucks 31% of the time for $2.48

I'm with Scoob.