| Player of the Year and Grand Final Analysis
With two tournaments to go in 2008, let's a take a look at the Player of the Year standings and do some speculation on what can happen between now and Friday. For all analysis, we'll be a little bit cautious and assume the remaining two tournaments only have 24 players each. For a tournament this size, the top 5 scores are; 49, 35, 28, 24, 22.
We'll look first at the man who's been on top of the leaderboard for most of the year, "Buzzzardd". Coming into the home stretch he sits at 154 points and his 4th highest score is a 22. This means that Buzzzardd will likely need a Top 4 finish to increase his lead over the competition. If this happens, Buzzzardd all but locks up the Player of the Year race. Still nothing's impossible.
The player cloest to him, "Ranger" Mike, is currently sitting on 144 points with a 19 as his 4th highest score. Assuming Buzzzard gets no more points, suddenly the number of players playing becomes an important factor. In the event of a tie in score, we then go to the 5th highest score to break that tie. If Mike gains exactly 10 points his next highest score is a 19, while Dave's is also a 19. To break this we go to the 6th highest score which is 18 to 0 in favor of Dave.
This means that, with nothing else changing, Ranger cannot win if the scores are tied at the end of the year. Mike needs an 11 point gain to capture the Player of the Year race. If there are 27 or more players in one of the next two tournamnet, he can do this by getting at least third. If 26 or less show, he needs a second place, or better, finish to grab the title.
Dropping down to third place, we have "g2" Greg, who will unfornately not likely be able to make the next two tournaments. Still, with an 18 point deficate, he'd need a 1st place or 2nd place (assuming 27 or more players) finish to capture the title.
With a 1st place finish offering 49 points, there no one left on the list that can over take Dave with a 1st place finish. In order for one of the Top 10's to claim "Player of the Year" honours, they'd need to string together back to back 2nd place finishes or better.
Still, depending on tomorrow night's winner, there is the possibility that we could have a 3 person race to the finish line. For now, "Buzzzardd" needs to stave off "Ranger"'s late year accent to win the title of "Bristol Street 2008 Player of the Year".
Heading into the GRAND FINAL, there are current 4 spots available to high point non-winners. These 4 spots are currently occupied by "DataMn" Al, "Zithal" Rob, "joeheartsdi" Joe and "isnork" John. With nothing else changing, a player would need to crack 99 points in order to guarantee an entry. Of course, there's always the Wildcard tournament and the chance that an already qualified person will win one of the next two tournaments, opening up an additional spot.
The next two evenings are going to be very exciting!
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KWLT Fundraising BBQ and -EV Poker Day!! - Sat. Sept 15th
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