Game is 2/3/5 NL 500max at Garden City, San Jose, CA. All effective stacks are $500ish.
9 handed and I have only played at most an orbit at the table.
UTG raises to 15-20 (can't recall exactly) and I call with AJo, button calls, BB calls.
Flop AA9r (pot 55-75, call it 65)
Checked around.
Turn AA9xr (pot 65).
UTG bets 40, I call, button raises to 90 or so, BB flats??, UTG mucks and I call thinking wtf? Button is an unknown and seems to be super confident. I have no read on BB.
River AA9xx (xx are under the 9 and do not make any straights) (pot 375).
Checked to button who instabets 100, BB thinks for 30 seconds and calls -- WHAT THE EFF?. I think for a minute and read button as extremely strong on both the turn and the river. Still no read on BB. All that makes sense to me is that button has 99 or turned a set for a FH and BB has the other ace. Button's bet sizing (almost a min raise on the turn and definitely not a bluff size on the river) scream of value to me. Mathematically, I'm only risking $100 to win $575 but I cannot figure out how I can ever be good in this spot.
**Note that the reads on the button are that overall he is a typical passive/under-rolled NL player, that his body language is very confident and his bet sizing indicates to me that he is trying to eek out as much value from the hand as possible.
I mucked the best hand, but I still can't see how I am good there even 15% of the time which I need to be to make the call. I was obviously under-repping my hand and I snap call one bet on the river, but a bet and an overcall really fucked me sideways.
Note that I rarely take this line in this hand, so I guess I screwed myself out of the pot.
After playing with these players for a while I was kicking myself (and obv still am a bit) for mucking in this spot. I think my read vs the button of being very confident was dead-on.
I said it was bad. I still feel it was bad. I still don't see how I am good very often in this spot, but it is definitely a call when I consider a few things I left out when thinking about the hand at the table.
Don't think the fold is all that bad. A raise on turn and a flat behind and your holding an A, what else could they have? Was there a FD on the turn. I could see Ax and something like JJ. The bet on the river though is sooooo weak that I feel that they are trying to get value with a worse hand. Plus if its 500max they shouldn't have that much behind, feels like it should be a shove by anything better? I would guess he had somewhere around an A8-AJ not including A9obv lol. Other prob called with JJ which is probably pretty aweful lol.
Im going by bet sizing tells not personal reads though.
__________________
When the money is gone, its time to move on!!
Not sure why you checked on the flop? On the turn, lots of players like to come over the top of a raise on a paired board as they don't believe a player has trips or they are trying to represent a bigger kicker. I likely call $100 on the river with that much money in the pot. Doesn't make sense to raise with a J kicker on the river. I have lost a lot of hands with trips over trips with worse kicker.
Too bad you didn't have more history on these players to know if they bet their made hands.
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