Wanita1

I have had the nut straight at the flop in different tournaments. I was raised all in several times and called. In one case there were 3 of us in the pot with me last to act. I figured someone was drawing to a flush or had a set but hoping for the best I called the all in as I knew I had the best hand at the time. One guy hit his flush and out I went.

Another game, again the best possible hand at the flop (nut straight) and something similar happened except I was not last to act. I was raised and then re-raised all in and again called. There were 3 different suits up so I figured that both may have had sets or a straight same as me. At the river the board paired giving the player with the set a FH. The other guy only had a pair.

The third case was similar to the one above.These three were big tournaments and after the third time this happened I now question the play. In a one million dollar prize pool tournament, with the best possible straight on the flop, with a possible flush draw up and 3 in the pot how would you play the hand 1st to act, 2nd to act or 3rd to act.If there was no flush draw up at the flop how would you play the hand, would it be any different?


To me it seemed absolutely insane to fold, but now considering 3 in a pot I realize that each would only likely risk the entire stack if they had a straight as well or a set. If the guy holding the set started with a pocket pair then he would have 11 outs to beat me which is very good. If both held sets I would be a long shot to have the straight hold up. This is not even considering the possibility of one hitting a flush. Early in a tournament is it worth the risk to lose the entire stack? Being as the hand has failed me often I think maybe not. Still I am very undecided.

Wetts1012

There is no math, or theory, that you can provide to show any reason to fold in any of these situations.

The goal in any hand is to maximize the value from it.

When you flop the nut you want to get as much money in ahead as possible.

Folding is weak poker.

/thread.

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Wetts1012

This statement is very, very wrong. I could give you the long version, but if you dont want to get all the monies in as a 70% favourite perhaps you're not doing it right.

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Milo

Poker wisdom, humour, and just the right amount of sarcasm . . .

wp Wetts.

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compuease

It's beyond weak, even a Rock wouldn't do it.... well maybe sometimes





but only if I timed out...

compuease

One other thing I don't understand, you're playing million dollar tournaments and asking this kind of question?

ReefAquarium

Welcome to the forum,

You need to continue to make the right plays even if in the short term past things haven't worked out.

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Wanita1

Well Compuease, when you lose a very similar hand in 3 big tournaments that cost the entire stack early in the game with the entire tournament to go, the correct thing is to evaluate your play, which is what I am doing. I don't think that re-evaluating the play and considering the possibility of folding shows weakness at all. Weakness is continuing to make the same play over and over again with losing results without at the very minimum, considering the situation.

These are only the 3 tournaments that stand out in my head. I have lost with this hand many times but in low buy ins. Talked to another pro who as well has been burned often but does the same as me and gets the chips in the pot. I have noticed here in a thread that again this hand was the end of a tournament for a player, how it differs from my case is that there were only 2 in the pot.

Two important factors are here. First of all 3 players were in the pot and it was early in the tournament. Only one guy was all in at the flop with a mere top pair. All the rest had a hand. If you have 2 sets gunning for a FH, that is 22 cards that can kill your straight by making a FH. That is WITHOUT considering that one of them could hit a flush.

If one was on a flush draw and the other a set that is 20 cards that could kill the straight.

I don't think that the straight in these cases can then be considered "way ahead" I would consider it ahead but not by much it would seem.

I think it is correct to come out swinging and that the other players made an incorrect play knowing that it was likely someone had the nut straight at the flop. But I am now thinking that maybe being last to act after the other 2 were all in, if I should have thrown it away. This may be a spot that actually turns a great hand into coin toss. Many hands appear stronger than what they are. Take AK up against 9T all in. According to Harrington 9,T will win 45% of the time. There were many reasons why it was correct to get those chips in, which is what I did, but if you put those chips in and costs you more losses than wins does it not become a losing play?

Unless I see actual documented data that this hand in this type of situation loses more often than wins I will continue to play the hand the way I did and getting those chips in. But I still believe it is correct to have re-evaluated and discuss the play. I do feel better knowing that others would have made the same play too.

Wetts1012

Honestly, I dont have the energy for this, but here it goes.

Assuming youre vs. 2 sets, you are a 70% fav.
Assuming youre vs. a FD and a set, you are 40% fav.

In both cases, you have more than enough equity to make a call a no brainer.

Remember, we do not play in a vaccuum. Individual hand results are irrelevant. The results of 3 hands where you lost are irrelevant. The results of 100 hands where you lost are irrelevant.

What is relevant is that with worst case scenario information you are making a profitable play statistically.

To say that it requires analysis over a sample size of 3 is ridiculous. I also want to play the pro you spoke to HU4ROLLZ.

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compuease

First of all if you have the flopped str8 and both other players flopped sets you are still a 66% fav to win, even if one of them had a back door flush draw, ie runner runner. If no back door flush draw you're a 70% favorite.
That is a pretty good favorite, especially with 2 all-in's in front, 3-1 on your money AND a 70% fav.. Can't imagine any real pro folding there even if the cards are turned up.


edited, wetts and I were posting at the same time... As he says, where's this pro that advocates folding? playing 5/10 cent?

Wanita1

First off if the intent to respond is draining you of energy then please do not. Second no pro has ever advocated folding. Read back. The pro has burned same as me and put the chips in same as me. Also as I have said I will continue to make the same play( getting chips in) unless I see documented evidence that suggests otherwise.

I am beginning to think that the 2 of you post not to assist but to rather belittle.

Wetts1012

Think whatever you want.

You asked a question, you got an answer.

If you want to post a legitimate conversation topic, you will get a legitimate conversation.

If you want to post a ludicris question such as "should I fold the nuts", then you are going to get ludicris answers.

Unless I am wrong.

So to clarify, what exactly was your original question?

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actyper

FML. I thought that games were getting tougher. Then I read this. Now I realize I'm just getting suckier.

Wetts1012

This is level 6 son.

You'll get there some day.

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Wanita1

Truthfully Wetts, I am surely not the only person to think that opportunity to belittle is why you post, and in a tag team fashion. You may feel that you are on top of the world but I bet there are many who have little respect for you as a person. Illusions of grandeur perhaps.