Pot odds

TimmyX · Aug 21,2008, 11:38 AM

Every poker book tells you to calculate pot odds using only the cost to call vs the total amount in the pot at that time. I don't see how this makes sense.

Let's use an example of hoping to hit a set on the flop when holding a pair, just for simplicity. We'll round the odds of hitting that to 7 to 1. Now let's say there's three people in the pot and the total is $80 at the time you have to call a $10 bet. These are just made up amounts for the purpose of this discussion and we'll say that if the set misses you will fold right then and if it hits everyone will check from there to the showdown at which point you win, again for simplicity.

So using the published method of pot odds calculation it looks like you would make a profit by calling $10 to win a $80 pot at 7:1 odds. Problem is, though the total pot is then $90 you put $30 of that in the pot yourself. So seven times you lose $30, for a total loss of $210, and one time you win $60 (what the other two players put in). Total loss $150. Where's the profit?

Would it not make more sense to disregard the amount in the pot and simply call or fold based on the calculated win percentage of your hand, based on an odds calculator, in comparison to the number of opponents you're facing? Over the long term, the amount in the pot when you hold that same hand against the same number of opponents is going to average out. Say the average pot is $90, including your call, and your winning percentage is 40% (not using the pair in this example but whatever hand would have that win percentage against two opponents). After 100 such hands you would have won $2400 (40 x the other two players' $60 share of the pot) and lost 60 x your $30, $1800, for a profit of $600. It wouldn't matter what the pot amounts actually averaged out to, as long as your win percentage is higher that 33.33% you're going to make a long term profit, disregarding the rake. Figuring in the rake, of 5%, you would have to have a win percentage above 35% to make it profitable.

Now, admittedly, if every poker player in the world used the published pot odds method it would even out between all the players because they would all be losing to each other every time they did it. On the other hand, if you happen to be the only player in the world using the win percentage method regardless of pot size then you're going to clean up because everybody else will basically just be handing you their money.

pokerJAH · Aug 21,2008, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimmyX

you put $30 of that in the pot yourself. So seven times you lose $30

in your EV calc, you have to ignore the money you have already put in the pot. This is dead money.

Hobbes · Aug 21,2008, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimmyX

Let's use an example of hoping to hit a set on the flop when holding a pair, just for simplicity. We'll round the odds of hitting that to 7 to 1. Now let's say there's three people in the pot and the total is $80 at the time you have to call a $10 bet. These are just made up amounts for the purpose of this discussion and we'll say that if the set misses you will fold right then and if it hits everyone will check from there to the showdown at which point you win, again for simplicity.

So using the published method of pot odds calculation it looks like you would make a profit by calling $10 to win a $80 pot at 7:1 odds. Problem is, though the total pot is then $90 you put $30 of that in the pot yourself. So seven times you lose $30, for a total loss of $210, and one time you win $60 (what the other two players put in). Total loss $150. Where's the profit?

The odds are still there. Once your inital $20 is in the pot it is no longer yours, so it's still just a $10 call into a $70 pot.

pokerJAH · Aug 21,2008, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hobbes

The odds are still there. Once your inital $20 is in the pot it is no longer yours, so it's still just a $10 call into a $70 pot.

pretty confusing but I think he was indicating $10 into an $80 pot so the final pot is $90 pre-flop; more reason to make the call.

pkrfce9 · Aug 21,2008, 02:35 PM

ow ow ow. the cancer is coming back

welcome timmy.

yes, think of it as 10 into an 80 pot. 7 times you lose for 70. 1 time you win for 80. net +10.

if you fold all 8 times, you lose 0 extra. net 0.

your way of thinking has you losing 30 7 times and winning 60 once for a net of -150 but don't forget if you fold 8 times your net is -160. you are still up +10 by calling.

Hobbes · Aug 21,2008, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerJAH

pretty confusing but I think he was indicating $10 into an $80 pot so the final pot is $90 pre-flop; more reason to make the call.

You are correct sir.

TimmyX · Aug 21,2008, 03:02 PM

First I should say that I made a mistake when I said if you folded you would save money. You would have folded anyway if you missed the set on the flop. I edited out that paragraph now.

Now in regard to the replies, yes, that's what the books all say. It's not your money anymore after it's in the pot. That may sort of make sense on paper, but let's face it, that money came out of your bankroll and if you win the pot one third of it is not profit but simply getting back your own money. All you've really won is the other two thirds of it. If the odds against making the winning hand are more than 2:1 you can't possibly profit in the long term.

I think it's a major fallacy to derive the pot odds from the single call amount compared to the full pot amount. As I showed, the math clearly indicates some big losses doing that. How did anyone ever think that made sense? Actually, it's probably best that nobody here agrees with me. That makes me the only player on Earth who won't be giving back all the money that the flawed pot odds players will be losing to me. Ka-ching!

Hobbes · Aug 21,2008, 03:25 PM

Your error was not in the final call, it was in the first call of $10 if you thought you needed to hit a set to win.

Don't let your 1st error influence your correct pot odds call.

1st call getting 2:1 bad call for strict odds.
2nd call getting 5:1 again no odds.
3rd call getting 8:1...you've backed yourself into a corner of having to make the call based on pot odds.

See you at the tables
Ship it

pokerJAH · Aug 21,2008, 03:27 PM

ok Buddy, stop playing games. We are on to you.

pokerJAH · Aug 21,2008, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimmyX

You would have folded anyway if you missed the set on the flop.

not necessarily:

a) pair board on the flop
b) three of the same suit (even if you missed)
c) open ended straight draw (with one of your cards)
d) etc., etc.

Even if I missed my trips, there are various situations I may represent or continue in the hand depending on the flop. Also, I'm not sure of your position based on how you described the opening hand. It depends.

Hobbes · Aug 21,2008, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerJAH

not necessarily:

a) pair board on the flop
b) three of the same suit (even if you missed)
c) open ended straight draw (with one of your cards)
d) etc., etc.

Even if I missed my trips, there are various situations I may represent or continue in the hand depending on the flop. Also, I'm not sure of your position based on how you described the opening hand. It depends.

Overpair.
Bluff

pokerJAH · Aug 21,2008, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimmyX

So using the published method of pot odds calculation it looks like you would make a profit by calling $10 to win a $80 pot at 7:1 odds. Problem is, though the total pot is then $90 you put $30 of that in the pot yourself. So seven times you lose $30, for a total loss of $210, and one time you win $60 (what the other two players put in). Total loss $150. Where's the profit?

how about this example based on your theory:

$1/$2 cash game. You have small pocket pair on the button. Middle position makes it $100 to go ($98 raise). You feel frisky and decide to call. SB has exactly $100 left and goes all-in for a raise of $1. MP calls.

Based on your theory, you put $101 of the pot in yourself. So seven times you lose $101 for a total loss of $707, and one time you win $202 (what the other players put in). Total loss of $505.

You fold.

Me personally, for $1 raise, I'm going to see a $303 pot. Call me crazy.....

BlondeFish · Aug 21,2008, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimmyX

Actually, it's probably best that nobody here agrees with me. That makes me the only player on Earth who won't be giving back all the money that the flawed pot odds players will be losing to me. Ka-ching!

I'm one of those "flawed pot odds players" so please tell me where you play so I can donate to you instead of the casino raked satellites.

pkrfce9 · Aug 21,2008, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimmyX

I think it's a major fallacy to derive the pot odds from the single call amount compared to the full pot amount. As I showed, the math clearly indicates some big losses doing that. How did anyone ever think that made sense? Actually, it's probably best that nobody here agrees with me. That makes me the only player on Earth who won't be giving back all the money that the flawed pot odds players will be losing to me.

what you have said is completely ridiculous. did you even bother to read and try to understand the responses? go ahead and fold all those aces PF if that is the way you make your decisions.

Milo · Aug 21,2008, 05:58 PM

Timmy, I'll just paraphrase Blondefish's tagline and tell you that:

If you think the math is wrong, you're using the wrong math.

in short, you are wrong, and "the book", not to mention the various posters, is correct.

Damn, forgot to do the doggerel bit. Crap.